With Sammy Watkins questionable, the Chiefs have taken a flyer on Kelvin Benjamin, but just because he's joining the high-flying K.C. offense does that mean when can back him with some bets this weekend. We look at this and much more as break down the best betting notes to help crack the NFL odds in Week 14. **video
K.C. GRABS BENJAMIN, WATKINS QUESTIONABLE
The Kansas City Chiefs have taken a flyer on Kelvin Benjamin, signing the receiver to a one-year contract on Thursday after Buffalo had cut him Tuesday. Benjamin looked completely disinterested with the Bills, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him become re-engaged with Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs offense. When the Chiefs are at full strength, Benjamin could slide in as the third receiver behind Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins and could potentially contribute down the stretch and in the playoffs. For this week, we recommend staying away from Benjamin, even if he’s active.
Watkins has practiced in a limited fashion over the last two days, which is an upgrade to his chances of suiting up on Sunday, but he’s still very much questionable. Even if he does go, we’re staying away from all Chiefs receivers in Week 14 as they match up against a Baltimore secondary that has only allowed two receivers to get 80-plus yards through the air this season. Instead, we’ll be backing the ever-consistent Travis Kelce who has five or more catches in every game this season and ridiculous lines of 10-127-1 and 12-168-2 over his last two weeks. Baltimore has a great defense but actually struggles against tight ends with 25.9 percent of receptions and 29.4 percent of receiving yards against them going to the position. We’re banking on another huge game from Kelce and taking the Over on his receptions total and receiving yards total.
GUS THE BUS RUMBLES ON
In sticking with the Chiefs-Ravens game on Sunday, Ravens running back Gus Edwards could be in for a big afternoon. Edwards has turned himself into Baltimore’s lead back, with rushing lines of 21-82-0, 23-118-0, and 17-115-1 over the last three weeks. Week 14 might be his best matchup to date as he gets a Chiefs defense that is ranked dead last in rushing DVOA. Kansas City is giving up 122 rushing yards per game and was scorched last week for 156 yards on 24 carries by Doug Martin and Jalen Richard.
Lamar Jackson is fully expected to start on Sunday and that means the Ravens will be running the ball — a lot. Since Jackson took over three games ago, Baltimore is running the ball on 70.7 percent of its offensive plays. The Ravens have also rushed for over 200 yards in each of those three games, the longest streak in franchise history. The Ravens are a rushing team and the only way they are going to keep the game close on Sunday is by running the ball and keeping the Chiefs’ offense off the field. It’s a great spot for Edwards and we’re taking the Over on his rushing yards total.
GORDON STILL OUT
Chargers running back Melvin Gordon missed practice again on Thursday and is highly doubtful to play in Week 14, even though he hasn’t officially been ruled out yet. Last week, it was expected that Austin Ekeler would be used as a feature back but his unimpressive first-half performance on Sunday Night Football allowed Justin Jackson to shine in the second half, running for 63 yards on eight carries and catching one pass for 19 yards. It looks as if the Chargers will roll out a committee on Sunday and we’d expect Jackson to do the early-down work with Ekeler sliding in on passing downs and as a change of pace.
It’s unfortunate there’s not more clarity heading into Sunday as the Chargers’ backfield has an absolute dream matchup against a Bengals defense that is allowing league-highs to the opposing backfield in total yards per game (179.3), touches per game (30.8), and total touchdowns (19). Game script is also in the favor of the Chargers’ backs as L.A. is favored by 14 at home. Tread lightly as we’re basically guessing as to which back will see more work Sunday, but it was a telling sign that Jackson out-touched Ekeler 7-4 in the fourth quarter last week as the Chargers were playing in a tight game against Pittsburgh. We also think that Jackson would be the preferred back to close out a blowout, which could lead to more touches late in the game. We’re backing the Over for Jackson’s rushing yards total in Week 14.
ALLEN ON FIRE
In sticking with the Bengals-Chargers matchup on Sunday, we must highlight how good Keenan Allen has been of late. Since L.A.’s bye in Week 8, Allen has six or more catches in each game, touchdowns in four straight, and has put together stat lines of 9-89-1, 7-72-1, and the incredible 14-148-1 on 19 targets last week against Pittsburgh. Are we buying high here? Absolutely. But Allen gets one of his best matchups of the season on Sunday against a Bengals defense that ranks 27th in passing DVOA. He is also playing with a quarterback who targeted him on 53 percent of passes last week, which was the highest rate for skill-position players in 2018. Philip Rivers also has a streak going where he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season and he’s not going to want that snapped against a Bengals defense that has given up 26 touchdown passes on the season (27th in the league). We expect Allen to make it five straight games with a touchdown catch and backing him to score a touchdown at any time.
JOHNSON OUT AGAIN
Lions rookie running back Kerryon Johnson missed practice again on Thursday and is expected to sit out his third consecutive game on Sunday as Detroit heads to Arizona. As has been the case in the past three games, LeGarrette Blount will handle the early-down carries while Theo Riddick gets the targets.
While we’re always hesitant to back Blount and his 2.9 yards per carry, we can’t deny the opportunity he’ll have to get into the end zone on Sunday. Blount has received 10 red-zone carries over the last two weeks (to Riddick’s three) which he has turned into two scores. The Cardinals have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns on the season, which is the most in the NFL, and three in the last two weeks. Blount does not catch passes, so we don’t need to eat the extra vig with his anytime touchdown, so we’re backing the Over 0.5 for his rushing touchdowns total on Sunday.
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