With three games played on Thanksgiving Thursday, NFL Week 13 Sunday rolls out a dozen matchups, including a big interconference clash. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for four games, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -4; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5
Baltimore hasn’t lost a game since September, going 7-0 SU while cashing five in a row. In Week 12, the Ravens (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) steamrolled the Los Angeles Rams 45-6 as 3.5-point road favorites on Monday night.
San Francisco joins New England as the only teams sporting just one loss in the NFL. The 49ers (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) impressively flattened Green Bay 37-8 as 3-point home faves in the Week 12 Sunday nighter.
“Money is running roughly 2/1 on the Ravens, and tickets are also running roughly 2/1,” Shelton said of pointspread action at The Mirage and other MGM books. “We got sharp play on the 49ers +6 and the Ravens -5.5. I’d guess we’ll need the Niners.”
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans – Open: +3; Move: None
New England averages 27.3 points per game, yet over the past two weeks scored a combined 30 points – and won both games. In Week 12, the Patriots (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) edged Dallas 13-9 giving 5.5 points in a rain-plagued home game.
Houston moved atop the AFC South by winning three of its last four, though it only covered once in that stretch. The Texans (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) claimed a 20-17 home win over Indianapolis laying 3.5 points in the Week 12 Thursday nighter.
“Both public and sharp play on the Patriots,” Shelton said of an 8:20 p.m. ET kick in the Sunday nighter. “Money is just over 4/1 on the Patriots, tickets about the same. And all the money parlay-wise is gonna flow toward the Patriots, starting with the early games. We’re gonna need the Texans.”
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -9.5; Move: -10; Move: -10.5; Move: -11
Oakland is coming off an embarrassing loss as it gears up for this 4:25 p.m. ET AFC West clash. The Raiders (6-5 SU and ATS) went off as 3.5-point favorites at the New York Jets and got boatraced 34-3, with Oakland’s lone score coming on the first possession of the game.
Kansas City is rested and ready as it attempts to take a two-game lead in the division race. The Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) had a bye in Week 12, following a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Rams as 5.5-point neutral-site favorites in Mexico City.
MGM books are buried in moneyline parlays tied to the Chiefs, including: $100,000 on Ohio State -340/Kansas City -750, so the first half is in; $110,000 on Saints -300/Chiefs -600, so half of that is in, too; and $50,000 on Eagles -600/Chiefs -700.
“Pointspread-wise, this is not too big a decision. It’s not even 2/1 money on the Chiefs, and it’s not even close to 2/1 tickets,” Shelton said. “It’s all those moneyline parlays, and those are just the big ones. We’ll have a ton of smaller ones. Raiders outright is probably the only way we’re gonna make any money.”
As for pointspread play, Shelton said: “We were at Chiefs -10.5 forever, then a sharp guy laid 10.5 (Saturday), we went to 11, and a different sharp player took Chiefs -6.5 first half.”
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5
Indianapolis lost quarterback Andrew Luck to retirement two weeks before the season began, but is still in the playoff hunt within the AFC South and with the wild card. The Colts (6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) fell out of first in the division with a 20-17 loss at Houston as 3.5-point underdogs.
Since benching Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee has won four of five to get back into the postseason discussion. In Week 12, the Titans (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) routed Jacksonville 42-20 giving 4.5 points at home.
“That game’s come down,” Shelton said of line movement for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “Tickets and money shaded for the Titans, but it’s a total no decision.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.