UFC Fight Night: de Castro vs Felipe Picks and Predictions

Yorgan de Castro was installed as the -280 favorite over Carlos Felipe in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night on October 3.

Sep 27, 2020 • 07:47 ET
Yorgan de Castro UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Yorgan de Castro vs. Carlos Felipe is the co-main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, October 3.

This fight isn't anywhere near the caliber of last Saturday's co-main event with two unranked and largely unknown heavyweights entering the octagon. But hey, if you like fights between massive dudes who throw wild haymakers and are too slow to move out of the way, this should be a fun tilt. 

UFC odds have Castro installed as a -280 favorite while Felipe is the underdog at +220.

We break down the UFC betting odds for this battle of big boys as we bring you our picks and predictions for de Castro vs. Felipe at UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana on October 3.

De Castro vs Felipe fight odds

Method of Victory Yorgan de Castro Carlos Felipe
Win outright -280 +220

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

De Castro vs Felipe betting preview

De Castro is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Greg Hardy at UFC 249 in May. That was just his second UFC fight, following a first-round knockout of Justin Tafa last October. The 33-year-old is now 6-1 with five knockout wins and four of those KOs came in the first round.

De Castro is a massive fighter with incredible power, but he isn't a technical striker and, like most fighters with his build, has poor cardio. 

 

Felipe is coming off a decision loss to Sergey Spivak in his UFC debut in July. Prior to that, the 25-year-old Brazilian had won the first eight fights of his career with six of those victories coming via first-round knockout. Like de Castro, Felipe is a big hitter with poor movement and questionable fitness.

De Castro vs Felipe tale of the tape

Yorgan de Castro   Carlos Felipe
33 Age 25
6-foot Height 6-foot
262 lbs Weight 261 lbs
74 inches Reach 75 inches
6-1 (5 KO) Record 8-1 (6 KO)

De Castro vs Felipe UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Felipe to win +220 - Despite coming off losses, neither fighter was out of their depth in those fights...well at least early. De Castro's output dropped off a cliff after the first round against Hardy, and while a foot injury may have contributed he still barely threw a punch after looking aggressive in the first five minutes.

Felipe more than held his own in the first two rounds against Spivak, but looked absolutely useless in the final round as Spivak grounded and pounded him into the mat.

Both of these fighters have massive knockout power but sloppy technique and poor cardio. Look for them to come out swinging and if neither gets the early knockout it'll just come down to who gets gassed quicker.

All it takes is one big punch to pull off a victory in the heavyweight division and with these two throwing wild haymakers and hooks, you may as well wager on the underdog. 

 

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