After a wild race last weekend, which saw a major crash on pit road and 12 drivers post a DNF, NASCAR odds look to be a little more stable with this Sunday's Quaker State 400.
Covers Experts’ Auto Racing Advisor sizes up the NASCAR betting odds for the Quaker State 400 and gives his favorite NASCAR predictions and betting picks for the Sunday, July 12 race at Kentucky Speedway.
NASCAR betting odds for Quaker State 400
| Driver | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | +350 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 |
| Chase Elliott | +500 |
| Kyle Busch | +650 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +1,600 |
| Kurt Busch | +2,500 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +2,500 |
| William Byron | +2,800 |
| Aric Almirola | +2,800 |
| Erik Jones | +3,300 |
| Clint Bowyer | +4,000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +5,000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +6,600 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +6,600 |
| Christopher Bell | +6,600 |
| Justin Allgaier | +10,000 |
Odds courtesy of bet365
Who will win the Quaker State 400?
Favorites to bet
Denny Hamlin (+500)
No one has won as more times this season than Hamlin. While Hamlin has never been victorious at Kentucky, he does have three Top-5 finishes in his last five tries.
Kyle Busch (+650)
Kyle is Mr. Kentucky. He's raced in all nine Cup Series races there and has a Top-10 finish in eight of them. He's a two-time winner, to go along with two runner-up results too. Busch has six Top-5 finishes in his last seven tries.
Brad Keselowski (+800)
He's a three-time Kentucky winner and has six Top-7 finishes in nine tries on the 1.5-mile track.
Long shots to bet
Kurt Busch (+2,500)
He won this race last year and has four Top-10 finishes in his last five tries on this race track.
Aric Almirola (+2,800)
He has five straight Top-5 finishes on the season. He's confident — go this direction.
Erik Jones (+3,300)
This is his chance to shine. Jones was sixth in 2017, seventh in 2018 and third last year.
Betting Kentucky Speedway
Will this be another year of difficult passing and a track position race? I honestly don't think so. In fact, I have a feeling this could be one of the better Quaker State 400's we've seen in a while, if not ever.
First off, the race will run under daytime conditions — not under the lights. The only time that happened previously was in 2013, and that's the only time in the race's nine-year history that the winner didn't come from a starting spot inside the Top 10.
Also, the hot Kentucky sun and likely high humidity are going to result in a hotter and slicker track. That could help in the sense that with the new repave, Kentucky has been a one-groove race track. Now, this could create another racing lane or even cause drivers to make mistakes, since a one-groove track with high downforce and low horsepower didn't seem to work in the past.
That could set up for another fun finish, especially if we have yet another late-race caution.
Stat to Watch
There's been a different winner in each of the last six Cup races on 1.5-mile tracks, including all of the races run in 2020. Among the last three winners at Kentucky, none of them have won on a 1.5-mile track this season. To take it even further, six of the nine career race winners in Kentucky have not won on a 1.5-mile track this season either.
