The 2024 Academy Awards tonight!
Oscars odds have been updated to reflect the field since it's been narrowed to 10 in Best Picture and five in every other category.
With so many precursors during awards season, most of the races appear settled, but there could be some surprises.
Additionally, we have deeper looks at Best Picture predictions,Best Actor predictions, and Best Actress predictions.
Finally, don't forget to take advantage of our free printable 2024 Oscars ballot for your home contests!
All odds and predictions as of March 10, 2024.
Odds to win Best Picture
Film | ||
---|---|---|
Oppenheimer | -5,000 | -5,000 |
Poor Things | +2,000 | +2,000 |
The Zone of Interest | +2,500 | +2,500 |
The Holdovers | +3,500 | +2,500 |
Barbie | +3,500 | +5,000 |
Killers of the Flower Moon | +4,000 | +10,000 |
Anatomy of a Fall | +5,000 | +4,000 |
American Fiction | +8,000 | +8,000 |
Past Lives | +10,000 | +15,000 |
Maestro | +15,000 | +15,000 |
- Best Picture Prediction: Since opening in June, Oppenheimer has dominated Best Picture betting odds, and its chances have only improved. It won Best Picture — Drama at the Golden Globes and has seen its odds shorten even further. It also leads all movies with 13 nominations and nothing is going to upset it.
Odds to win Best Director
Director | ||
---|---|---|
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) | -5,000 | -6,667 |
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) | +1,800 | +1,600 |
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) | +2,000 | +2,500 |
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) | +3,500 | +3,300 |
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) | +5,000 | +2,500 |
- Best Director Prediction: Christopher Nolan is heavily favored to win his first-ever Oscar and there is little reason to bet against this at the moment, especially as odds have shortened even more. Oppenheimer is the heavy front-runner in several categories and was one of the biggest movies at the box office in 2023. Nolan is one of the most accomplished working filmmakers never to have won in this category and, as it so often happens, it is his time.
Odds to win Best Actor
Actor | ||
---|---|---|
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) | -1,200 | -1,205 |
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) | +600 | +600 |
Bradley Cooper (Maestro) | +2,000 | +1,800 |
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) | +8,000 | +8,000 |
Colman Domingo (Rustin) | +8,000 | +8,000 |
- Best Actor Prediction: I had Paul Giamatti pegged as the winner here before he won Best Actor - Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, and the odds movement suggested I was ahead of the curve. Well, the chickens may have come home to roost as Cillian Murphy is now even more of a substantial favorite than he's been at any other point during the race. I still won't be shocked if Giamatti's name gets called but I'm not as hopeful as I was a month ago.
Odds to win Best Actress
Actress | ||
---|---|---|
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) | -250 | -175 |
Emma Stone (Poor Things) | +150 | +125 |
Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) | +2,500 | +1,200 |
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) | +6,500 | +6,600 |
Annette Benning (Nyad) | +6,500 | +6,600 |
- Best Actress Prediction: This has felt like one of the few categories where the result isn't a foregone conclusion. Both Lily Gladstone (my prediction from the fall onward) and Emma Stone have won multiple awards for their performances. After winning at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Gladstone's odds have once again pushed her into favorite status, and SAG is a big voting body of the Academy. So, hopefully you got your Gladstone shares earlier.
Odds to win Best Supporting Actor
Actor | ||
---|---|---|
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) | -3,500 | -5,000 |
Ryan Gosling (Barbie) | +1,200 | +2,000 |
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) | +2,000 | +2,000 |
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) | +2,500 | +2,000 |
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) | +4,000 | +3,300 |
- Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Best Supporting Actor is as deep a category as I've ever seen, including several performances that didn't get nominated, but it's also one of the biggest no-brainers on the awards circuit. Robert Downey Jr. will win for his petulant performance as Lewis Strauss. With the lines so short, however, I've been fading this category for months because it's been a foregone conclusion. This is his third Oscar nomination (Chaplin, Tropic Thunder being the others) and will be his first win.
Odds to win Best Supporting Actress
Actress | ||
---|---|---|
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) | -3,500 | -6,667 |
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) | +2,000 | +2,000 |
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) | +2,000 | +2,000 |
America Ferrera (Barbie) | +2,000 | +2,000 |
Jodie Foster (Nyad) | +4,000 | +3,300 |
- Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Chalk. Da'Vine Joy Randolph has gotten a lot of deserved accolades since The Holdovers premiered and has surged to the top spot. While The Color Purple is getting some buzz in this category and Emily Blunt was seen as the frontrunner when Oppenheimer opened, this is Randolph's to lose and I wouldn't risk an upset, especially after winning at the Globes. Randolph was -175 in late December, and her odds have only shortened since.
Odds to win Best Original Screenplay
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Anatomy of a Fall | -280 | -278 |
The Holdovers | +225 | +220 |
Past Lives | +600 | +900 |
Maestro | +4,000 | +4,000 |
May December | +5,000 | +4,000 |
- Best Original Screenplay Prediction: This market has flipped at the top with Anatomy of a Fall taking over as the betting favorite over The Holdovers. While The Holdovers has a lot of support, Anatomy of a Fall is similarly beloved and I imagine the Academy is looking to honor it somewhere, especially after France didn't submit it for Best International Film (that honor went to The Taste of Things, which wasn't even nominated). Because I expect Giamatti and Randolph to win their respective trophies, I lean toward Anatomy of a Fall here.
Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
American Fiction | -225 | -278 |
Oppenheimer | +240 | +250 |
Barbie | +500 | +600 |
Poor Things | +2,500 | +4,000 |
The Zone of Interest | +3,500 | +8,000 |
- Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Like in Original Screenplay, we've seen a shift in the odds with American Fiction now the favorite. It's not an overwhelming favorite, though, and I actually like the value on Barbie at +600. Initially, Barbie was expected to run in Best Original Screenplay but because it's a movie featuring pre-existing characters, it was ruled to be ineligible and was therefore transported to Best Adapted Screenplay instead. While Barbie should do well in some below-the-line categories, the script has been one of the main areas of praise for the film, which transcended being a movie about a toy doll to have something more meaningful to say while also being absurdly funny. American Fiction probably wins but the value on Barbie is too good to pass up.
Odds to win Best Editing
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Oppenheimer | -1,000 | -1,000 |
Anatomy of a Fall | +500 | +550 |
Killers of the Flower Moon | +1,400 | +1,400 |
The Holdovers | +2,000 | +2,000 |
Poor Things | +2,500 | +4,000 |
- Best Editing Prediction: Watch the atomic bomb test sequence from Oppenheimer again. Past that, Oppenheimer wields two converging timelines in a manner that could easily be fumbled. Editing is the key to making it work. It is worth noting that this market has tightened a bit, with Oppenheimer going from around -1,500 to -800 and Anatomy of a Fall shortening considerably. Still, I don't think it indicates a surprise winner.
Odds to win Best Animated Feature
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | -225 | -227 |
The Boy and the Heron | +135 | +162 |
Nimona | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Elemental | +2,800 | +3,300 |
Robot Dreams | +3,500 | +2,500 |
- Best Animated Feature Prediction: For the most part, this year's Academy Awards feel pre-determined, which has become a trend in recent years. Predictability is a problem the Academy will have to address at some point to reel viewers back in. However, I can't figure out why The Boy and the Heron isn't the betting favorite here. It might have to do with how high-profile Across the Spider-Verse is, but Hayao Miyazaki's first movie in a decade is universally beloved and wholly unique. It also won the Golden Globe, and I imagine the eventual third installment of the animated Spider-Man trilogy will fare better than the middle chapter.
Odds to win Best Documentary Feature
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
20 Days in Mariupol | -2,000 | -2,000 |
Four Daughters | +900 | +1,000 |
The Eternal Memory | +1,200 | +1,200 |
Bobi Wine: The Peoples President | +1,200 | +1,600 |
To Kill a Tiger | +3,500 | +3,300 |
- Best Documentary Feature Prediction: Here is an example of a movie of the moment. 20 Days in Mariupol is classified as a capital "I" important movie and I'm surprised its odds aren't shorter. Still, at -909, it's not worth a wager.
Odds to win Best International Feature
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
The Zone of Interest | -2,500 | -2,500 |
Society of the Snow | +900 | +1,000 |
Perfect Days | +1,600 | +1,400 |
Io Capitano | +2,000 | +2,000 |
The Teacher's Lounge | +2,500 | +2,800 |
- Best International Feature Prediction: Okay, so The Zone of Interest is winning here. It's a Best Picture nominee, Jonathan Glazer got a Best Director nod, and it's up for Best Adapted Screenplay. However, Society of Snow may have fallen victim to Netflix's bizarre release rollout and there's an alternate universe where it gets the Best Picture nomination that ultimately went to Maestro if the streamer put its attention on JA Bayona's film instead. It dominated the Netflix charts and has generally been lauded. The Zone of Interest is a masterful work, but it has its detractors for its cold, distant approach to telling a Holocaust story, particularly from the perspective of the family of an Auschwitz commandant. Before moving to 10/1, Society of Snow was at least worth a speculative lean at +1,400 before its odds shortened.
Odds to win Best Cinematography
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Oppenheimer | -2,000 | -2,000 |
Poor Things | +800 | +900 |
Killers of the Flower Moon | +1,200 | +1,400 |
Maestro | +2,000 | +2,000 |
El Conde | +2,500 | +2,500 |
- Best Cinematography Prediction: Hoyte van Hoytema has worked with Christopher Nolan on four straight films, starting with Interstellar. He is a master with the camera and has been a part of some truly phenomenal visuals on screen. This his is second nomination after being recognized for Dunkirk in 2017, and it will undoubtedly be his first win. A technical achievement on several levels, I expect Oppenheimer to sweep most of the visual and sound categories.
Odds to win Best Production Design
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Poor Things | -200 | -227 |
Barbie | +140 | +162 |
Oppenheimer | +1,400 | +1,200 |
Killers of the Flower Moon | +4,000 | +4,000 |
Napoleon | +4,000 | +4,000 |
- Best Production Design Prediction: When the nominations were announced, Barbie was listed as short as -500 due to its commitment to lavish, colorful, and practical sets. There is a tangible nature to Barbie even when it's set in a fantastical location. This isn't a CGI-forward production and its tactile filmmaking enhances the final product. However, Poor Things has made up considerable ground to the point of becoming the betting favorite. If you liked Barbie here, you can now get decent value if Poor Things' surge hasn't scared you off.
Odds to win Best Costume Design
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Barbie | -150 | -139 |
Poor Things | +100 | +100 |
Napoleon | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Oppenheimer | +2,800 | +2,800 |
Killers of the Flower Moon | +3,500 | +3,300 |
- Best Costume Design Prediction: The Poor Things vs. Barbie battle in these categories continues and it's hard to get a handle on where it's winding up. The value play is Poor Things at +137.
Odds to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Maestro | -175 | -175 |
Poor Things | +125 | +125 |
Society of the Snow | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Oppenheimer | +2,000 | +2,000 |
Golda | +3,500 | +3,300 |
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Prediction: The odds here have shifted dramatically since the nominations were announced. While Maestro certainly could win — Bradley Cooper's transformation into Leonard Bernstein, particularly the older version of him, is impressive — the movie feels like an afterthought. Poor Things will win here, but there is also some value in backing Society of the Snow for how it depicted the gruesome realities in the aftermath of a plane crash atop a mountain and it's been getting some extra press of late.
Odds to win Best Visual Effects
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Godzilla Minus One | -165 | -175 |
The Creator | +125 | +125 |
Napoleon | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning | +5,000 | +5,000 |
- Best Visual Effects Prediction: Godzilla Minus One should win this based solely on how much it accomplished on a much smaller budget than its Hollywood contemporaries. About the only thing agreed upon about The Creator was that it looked good. If you didn't get Godzilla Minus One when it was still available at plus money, you're out of luck.
Odds to win Best Original Score
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Oppenheimer | -2,000 | -2,000 |
Killers of the Flower Moon | +1,000 | +1,000 |
Poor Things | +1,200 | +1,200 |
Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny | +2,500 | +2,500 |
American Fiction | +2,500 | +2,500 |
- Best Original Score Prediction: Robbie Robertson should posthumously win for his haunting score for Killers of the Flower Moon. He won't. The score isn't the sonic powerhouse driving Oppenheimer, but it's still very good, and it is part of the technical-category sweep we expect for Nolan's film.
Odds to win Best Original Song
Song (Movie) | ||
---|---|---|
"What Was I Made For?" (Barbie) | -750 | -833 |
"I'm Just Ken" (Barbie) | +450 | +450 |
"Wahzhazhe" (Killers of the Flower Moon) | +1,800 | +2,500 |
"The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot) | +2,800 | +2,500 |
"It Never Went Away" (American Symphony) | +2,800 | +2,500 |
- Best Original Song Prediction: "I'm Just Ken" is the more fun song, but the odds have consistently favored "What Was I Made For?" and I'm not going to go against chalk on this one.
Odds to win Best Sound
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
Oppenheimer | -250 | -250 |
The Zone of Interest | +150 | +175 |
Maestro | +1,600 | +1,100 |
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning | +4,000 | +4,000 |
The Creator | +4,000 | +4,000 |
- Best Sound Prediction: I wish I grabbed a small piece of The Zone of Interest when it was at +750 to win Best Sound, but that's long gone. I still expect Oppenheimer to win — again, the atomic bomb test sequence — but the odds haven't lengthened enough for my liking and The Zone of Interest's momentum does inject it with some doubt. Overall, I'm staying away.
Odds to win Best Live-Action Short
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar | -400 | -400 |
Knight of Fortune | +500 | +450 |
Red White and Blue | +600 | +600 |
The After | +1,200 | +1,800 |
Invincible | +3,500 | +3,300 |
- Best Live-Action Short Prediction: Wes Anderson has never won an Academy Award despite being nominated for Best Original Screenplay three times and Best Director once. The odds have tightened here a bit since the nominations were announced, but I'd be shocked if anything other than The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar won.
Odds to win Best Animated Short
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John Lennon | -200 | -189 |
Letter to a Pig | +150 | +162 |
Ninety-Five Senses | +700 | +700 |
Pachyderme | +2,800 | +3,300 |
Our Uniform | +5,000 | +5,000 |
- Best Animated Short Prediction: I can't hazard a guess here. Chalk seems likely but my exposure to these shorts has been nonexistent. I'll use the betting odds to guide me in my home Oscars pool. For what it's worth, Letter to a Pig was the favorite for weeks until War is Over! claimed that top spot days before the ceremony.
Odds to win Best Documentary Short
Movie | ||
---|---|---|
The ABCs of Book Banning | -215 | -189 |
The Last Repair Shop | +175 | +210 |
Nai Nai and Wai Po | +550 | +600 |
The Barber of Little Rock | +2,500 | +1,600 |
Island in Between | +2,500 | +4,000 |
- Best Documentary Short Prediction: As with Best Animated Short, I simply don't know if there's value with going against chalk. These categories are always a mystery and your wagers are better spent elsewhere unless you can find an angle.
How to bet on the Academy Awards
Unlike sports betting, betting on the Oscars has far fewer statistics and numbers to keep in mind. But similar to wagering on sports, there are historical trends, news, and narratives to follow if you want to better handicap your Academy Awards bets.
Know the voting system
Understanding how Oscars voting works is key to understanding who will be nominated and who will win. The Academy has over 8,000 members spread out over 17 branches. Each branch nominates for its own category; actors nominate for Best Actor, directors for Best Director, etc. Every voter gets to nominate for the Best Picture Award, and they also vote on every award once the nominations are in.
In almost every award, the voters just choose their No. 1 selection. Easy peasy, right? Well, that's not how the Best Picture is chosen. For Best Picture, each voter chooses their favorite film in order of preference. The No. 1 choices are counted first, and if one movie gets more than 50 percent of those votes, it's deemed the winner. But usually, the No. 2 and No. 3 choices need to be tallied as well.
What are the takeaways from this voting system? Since actors are the ones nominating their peers, not only does an actor need to do a great job to get a nomination, but he or she needs to be widely respected and probably well-liked. And because of the preferential voting for Best Picture, a movie that winds up at No. 2 or No. 3 on almost everyone's ballot can win the award if the No. 1 choice is split between several films.
It's better to have a movie that most will rank in their top three than a polarizing film that some voters have at No. 1 and others rank near the bottom of their list.
Winners keep on winning
The Oscars are the biggest name in the film industry awards circuit, but they aren't the first ones to hand out their hardware every year. The Golden Globe Awards are given out just after the new year, followed by the Screen Actor Guild (SAG) Awards, and then the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) in early February.
Movies and stars can often ride award-winning momentum into the Oscars. Films and actors that are successful at the earlier award shows tend to also perform well at the Oscars. In 2020, for example, Joaquin Phoenix and Renee Zellweger swept the Best Actor and Best Actress awards across every major awards show. After each subsequent win, their odds to claim the Academy Award got better, and the payout for bettors shrank.
Follow the formula
Some movie genres have historically done well with critics. That includes wartime dramas, movies that explore race relations, films about the film industry (nobody ever said that Hollywood isn't vain), movies based on true stories, and scripts based on award-winning novels.
While many view Argo (2012) as one of the weakest winners of the Best Picture Award, it fit into two of these categories since it was based on a true story and was about the film industry.
Fitting into these genres is certainly no guarantee for Academy Award success, but it is a good barometer for whether a film has the right stuff to make it into Oscar contention.
Bet on big stars
Let's be honest, hype also plays a major role in whether certain movies get the deserved credit. Especially early in the Oscars process, sportsbooks will tend to give favorable lines toward movies with big-name directors and actors.
Just like annual sports betting favorites like the Yankees and Lakers, the biggest names in Hollywood tend to get the most handle and often do well during awards season.
Cultural impact is key
Keep in mind the current cultural environment in which these movies are being watched. Themes that are more relevant to the public discourse tend to resonate more with audiences and critics. However, movies are also about escapism, and critics sometimes gravitate toward lighter fare during times of crisis.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer is drawing the shortest odds to win Best Picture at the 96th Academy Awards.
Brendan Fraser won for his work in The Whale while Michelle Yeoh won for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The duo of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (AKA Daniels) won for helming Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The 2024 Oscars are currently scheduled for March 10, 2024 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Everything Everywhere All at Once won Best Picture in 2023 as a heavy frontrunner.