Premier League betting: Public vs sharp bets, and odds moves

Jun 22, 2020 |
Premier League betting: Public vs sharp bets, and odds moves
Midfielder Leroy Sane and Manchester City are -800 favorites in Monday's match vs. Burnley (+1800).
Photo By - USA Today Images
Midfielder Leroy Sane and Manchester City are -800 favorites in Monday's match vs. Burnley (+1800).
Photo By - USA Today Images

Premier League betting is finally back on the odds board, after more than three months off due to the COVID-19 shutdown. This weekend brings a full slate of games, from Friday through Monday, giving bettors several cracks at the EPL odds.

We get the inside scoop on the public vs. sharp bets, biggest odds moves and the most popular Premier League picks at sportsbooks around the globe. Covers will update this report with Premier League betting action and news throughout the weekend.

Premier League Betting Action June 22

Manchester City vs Burnley

UPDATE NOON ET MONDAY: At Paddy Power sportsbooks in the United Kingdom, Manchester City stretched to a -900 favorite, with Burnley a huge +2,000 underdog and draw +800 for a 3 p.m. ET match. "It's a major mismatch in terms of the odds, but the bets are a slightly more level playing field," public relations manager Amy Jones said. "There are far more bets on the Blues than on Burnley, but we are still seeing plenty of optimistic punters – maybe Liverpool fans – popping a bet on the road team." Those Liverpool fans would love to see their first-place team build an even bigger cushion over second-place Man City.


Host Manchester City opened a healthy -800 favorite, with draw +800 and Burnley a +1,800 pup. And on limited betting, the line hasn’t moved. Osterman said the total of 3.5 saw a little sharp action on the Under, moving the Over from -125 to -120 for a 3 p.m. ET meeting.

Premier League Betting Action June 19

Tottenham vs Manchester United

UPDATE NOON ET FRIDAY: Amy Jones, public relations manager for Paddy Power in the United Kingdom, said this match saw good two-way action early, but: "The swing is now all in Manchester United's favor." Man U is a +120 favorite, with Tottenham and draw both at +230. Jones said Manchester United's price is expected to tighten further as the 3:15 p.m. ET game time approaches.


It’s the second game of the day, but no question the bigger one, with eighth-place Tottenham hosting fifth-place Manchester United in a 3:15 p.m. ET start. Man United opened a +155 favorite and tightened to +140 at The SuperBook, with Tottenham +190 and draw at +250.

“We are seeing some good action on Manchester United from the public,” Osterman said Thursday afternoon. “We haven't seen any buyback on Tottenham yet.”


Norwich City vs Southampton

There’s been no movement in the odds, with Southampton +120 and Norwich – last in the 20-team EPL – at +220, with the draw +250 for a 1 p.m. ET match.

“We are seeing a little bit of parlay money on Norwich, but nothing big yet,” Osterman said.

Premier League Betting Action June 20

Brighton vs Arsenal

UPDATE NOON ET FRIDAY: "We're seeing an unexpected amount of bets on Brighton to overturn Arsenal," Jones said of action at Paddy Power. "Brighton are fighting for survival to stay in the EPL, and it seems bettors fancy them putting the sword to the Gunners, who lost to Man City on the opening day of the returned season." Indeed, on Wednesday, Arsenal got drilled at Manchester City 3-0. Arsenal is +130, Brighton +200 and draw +230.


Visiting Arsenal loosened from +110 to +135, with Brighton correspondingly tightening from +250 to +200, while the draw stayed at +240. 

“We have seen some sharp bets on Brighton, which is the reason for the move,” Osterman said of action on a 10 a.m. ET meeting.


West Ham vs Wolverhampton

UPDATE 12:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With just a few minutes until the match begins, host Wolverhampton has stretched from its opener of +115 to -105, with West Ham now a +310 underdog at The SuperBook. The draw is +240. Further, the total ticked down a half-goal from the opening number, going from 2.5 (Under -130) to 2 (Over -135).


Osterman said the line hasn’t moved off Wolverhampton as +115 chalk, but the Wolves are getting some public support in a 12:30 p.m. ET match. West Ham is +250 and draw +245. The total opened 2.5, with Under moving from -125 to -130.

Premier League Betting Action June 21

Everton vs Liverpool

UPDATE 12:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than two hours until dominant league leader Liverpool takes on host Everton, Liverpool is a -180 favorite at William Hill US, Everton is +465 and draw +320. "Sharps on the 'dog, public on the fave, but no great shakes," director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Draw would be good."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said betting is on the favoite and Premier League leader Liverpool, which is drawing more than 80 percent of bets for a 2 p.m. ET match at Everton. Liverpool is -180, Everton +475 and draw +320.

UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Betting is pretty cut and dried in a matchup of the runaway Premier League leader and 12th-place host Everton. "Liverpool are receiving all the money here, which makes them short-priced to beat their cross-city rivals," Paddy Power's Jones said of the -187 chalk. "But there are still plenty of bettors seeking out value in the Under 2.5 goals market, as they seem to expect the match will be quiet."


Liverpool looks to continue its EPL dominance, as it enters this weekend with 82 points and a massive 22-point lead over second-place Manchester City. Liverpool opened -180 and shifted to -170 for this 2 p.m. ET match, with Everton a sizable +450 underdog and draw +320.

“Everton is seeing some support from the public,” Osterman said.


Aston Villa vs Chelsea

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Much like the Everton-Liverpool match at PointsBet USA, Eichner said the favorite Chelsea is getting more than 80 percent of tickets. Chelsea is at -215, with host Aston Villa +540 and draw +360 in an 11:15 a.m. ET meeting.

UPDATE 12:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With 23 hours to go until this matchup, visiting Chelsea is out to a -205 road favorite at The SuperBook, after opening at -190. Aston Villa is a hefty +535 underdog, with the draw +350. The total of 3 opened Under -120 and ticked to Under -110 off early Over play, but Under is now -115.


Chelsea is a solid -190 fave, with Aston Villa +480 and draw +345.

“We’re seeing some support for the ‘dog from the public,” Osterman said, noting Aston Villa opened +490.

The total of 3 opened Under -120 and shifted to -110 off public bets on the Over in this 11:15 a.m. ET match.

Where can I bet Premier League Odds?

Many online books and casinos offer bets on soccer odds and props. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.

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