Betting 101: How to safely bet the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs

The Capitals need Braden Holtby to keep up his hot play if they hope to take the next step and reach the Stanley Cup this postseason.

Apr 12, 2016 • 11:00 ET
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NHL playoffs, more so than any other sport’s postseason, are about as different from the regular season as you can get.

Teams that dominated during the regular schedule suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination, and clubs that squeaked into the playoff picture can catch fire and ride a hot goalie all the way to the Stanley Cup.

In order to help hockey bettors navigate the upside-down world of postseason puck, we asked some of Covers Experts’ top handicappers to share their best tips, tactics, and trends when it comes to successfully wagering on the NHL’s second season.

Hot goaltenders

Like pitching in baseball, goaltending can singlehandedly win a playoff series. Year after year, hockey bettors witness incredible performances between the pipes and make a small mint riding these red-hot keepers.

On the other side of the coin, not having a proven No. 1 goalie can quickly put a wrap on the season – no matter how many goals a team can score. Covers Expert Jesse Schule points to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have been ushered out of the playoffs the past four years thanks to shaky play in the crease.

When looking to narrow down the field to legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, its always good look at the goaltenders first. Which ones are capable of carrying a team on their shoulders if need be? Who can steal a game, or even a series?

The Washington Capitals are hoping the sensational campaign by Braden Holtby can finally get them over their playoff woes and deliver a Stanley Cup. Holtby finished the season with a 48-9-7 record, just one win short of Martin Brodeur's record for wins in a single season. He also owns a 2.20 goals against average and .922 save percentage heading into the playoffs.

Depth and toughness

Ever watch a hockey player get interviewed about his team’s deep postseason run? More often than not, the guy’s face looks like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti on the floor and then tried to sew it back together.

The NHL playoffs are a grueling challenge of teams’ overall talent and toughness. When a series goes six or seven games, the true depth of a roster is drawn to the surface.

Injuries can spoil an NHL bet faster than a Shea Weber slapshot and knowing which teams are healthy, getting healthy, and beat up entering the playoffs is a good way to gauge just where you should put your money.

Some teams that were banged up earlier this season are healthy now and could perform better than expected, while the opposite could be true of teams suffering through multiple injuries at the moment.

Teams that can get production from their third and fourth lines are the ones who survive, while clubs that rely on a few key players to carry the team often find themselves trading hockey sticks for golf clubs. Opponents draw up schemes to shadow and lock down these stars and force role players to beat them.

It's important to consider depth. Which teams can roll four lines and get steady production from their role players? Unlike other sports, the NHL playoffs aren't all about the superstars. It's the grinders that often decide which team is left standing in June.

Physicality also plays a major role in the outcome of the playoffs, with every hit looked at as an investment. Finesse teams can get worn down over the course of a series while teams that like to lay the lumber excel in the furious pace of the postseason.

“Some teams might not be the fastest and most skilled, but instead they out-work, out-hit, and physically dominate their opponents,” says Schule.

Road Warriors

Another big difference between the NHL playoffs and other sports’ tournaments is the importance - or lack thereof - when it comes to home ice.

In basketball and football, having the crowd on your side is crucial to a championship run. However, in hockey, bettors get great value with road teams in the postseason. Hot home teams like Dallas or the New York Rangers may be good fade bait while tough road clubs, like San Jose, can hold added pop on the road.

“Other than getting the final line change, there is really not much of an edge for the home team,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “Obviously, the crowd will be supporting them. But unlike the NBA, it does not influence officials as much, as penalties are normally called evenly and on an alternating makeup basis. NHL playoffs is the one sport where I feel home teams are generally overvalued, especially since travel is not a factor and both teams in a best-of-seven series have the same travel schedule.”

Covers Expert Ben Burns believes each NHL postseason game is unique and doesn't carry as much momentum from one contest to the next. Teams quickly make adjustments, line changes and roster moves based on the game before and can have a completely different feel when they face off next. A high-scoring Game 1 can produce a low-scoring Game 2 with teams tightening up on defense.

Special teams

Referees do tend to let a lot more slide in the postseason compared to regular season action, so it makes it even more important for teams to capitalize on those man-advantages when the whistle does blow.

“It is absolutely imperative to score on the power play, in order to discourage opponents from taking cheap shots at your best players,” says Schule.

Entering the postseason, the Anaheim Ducks boast the top power-play attack in the league with 56 goals with the man advantage and a 23.0 power-play percentage. At the bottom of the scale, the Tampa Bay Lightning boast the lowest power-play percentage in the playoffs at 15.8 percent.

When it comes to playing a man down, the Ducks are just as good at killing those penalties off, as they are at scoring with the man advantage. They rarely got burned with a man in the box ranking first in the NHL with an 87.2 penalty-kill percentage. The Blues and Capitals followed them, each killing off 85.1 percent of their penalties. The Minnesota Wild have the worst penalty kill among playoff teams at 77.9 percent.

Editor's note: This article was originally published in April 2014. Stats and info have been updated to reflect this NHL season.

Pages related to this topic

Recent How to Bet Articles

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo