Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz is among the notable fights headlining the UFC 249 betting odds. Like most bouts on this May 9 MMA card, the initial combatants were shaken up due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Cejudo was originally slated to defend his UFC Bantamweight title against Jose Aldo. But with Aldo unable to secure a visa, the UFC reached for a notable name and Cruz was selected for his first fight since December 2016.
We size up the UFC odds and give our preview and predictions for Cejudo vs. Cruz at UFC 249.
| UFC 249 odds | Henry Cejudo | Dominick Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -210 | +176 |
| Win via KO/TKO | +280 | +1,000 |
| Win via points | +160 | +300 |
| Win via submission | +950 | +1,300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Cejudo vs Cruz betting preview
There’s no denying Dominick Cruz’s place in the UFC history books. But with the promotion desperate to keep pushing ahead during the COVID-19 pandemic – which has delayed and moved the venue multiple times – adding Cruz to this card seems, well… a little desperate.
Cruz hasn’t fought in 47 months, last entering the octagon in a decision loss to Cody Garbrandt at UFC 207 which served as his first defeat since 2007. Since then, he’s battled foot ailments, a broken arm and a shoulder injury, all of which have sidelined him and opened the door for Cejudo to make the jump to bantamweight and extend his winning streak to five fights.
Cejudo (a -210 favorite at FanDuel sportsbooks) has handled the best of the best in the 125-pound and 135-pound divisions during that stretch, most recently avenging a loss to Demetrious Johnson to win the flyweight crown, finishing veteran T.J. Dillashaw in 32 seconds, and wearing out a very dangerous challenger in Marlon Moraes for a TKO win at UFC 238 in June 2019.
Not without his own injuries, Cejudo has been sedentary since that bout with Moraes after suffering a torn muscle in his shoulder that required surgery. However, that layoff is nothing compared to the expected ring rust on Cruz (+176), who takes this fight on late notice.
That’s where the biggest question lies: Can Cruz move and push the pace like he used to? In his prime, the lanky fighter bounced around more than an over-caffeinated Super Ball and constantly switched stances to throw opponents off their timing. But that was almost four years ago. A lifetime in MMA years.
| Henry Cejudo | Dominick Cruz | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 64 inches | Reach | 69.5 inches |
| 15-2 (7 KO) | Record | 23-14-2 (5 KO) |
Cejudo vs Cruz predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Cejudo to win -210 – Kudos to Cruz for stepping up for a paycheck but at just over -200, Cejudo is a steal considering the situation here. He can finish this fight multiple ways and his patient approach will allow him to wear Cruz down then physically dominate him as the rounds tick by. You may not like to lay a little lumber with the 2/1 favorite but not all value bets are plus-money. If you must, Cejudo via KO/TKO has a solid return at +280.
PREDICTION: Will the fight go the distance? “No” +116 – Cruz did overcome a three-year hiatus back in 2014 but he was a younger man then and wasn’t facing a fighter of Cejudo’s calibre. The champ will drain whatever is left in his tank and end this inside of five rounds.
PREDICTION: When will the fight end? Round 3 +850 – If you’re looking for a flyer for your UFC 249 picks, the third round seems like a likely frame for the finish. Dana White had to know calling up Cruz was a reach and he more than likely just wants three good rounds from the former champ.
