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History tends to repeat itself, last meeting? 7-6 NYJ. Two years ago. Plus, look who Zona has played and beaten: Lost to NE, Buff, Rams & the two they beat were Tampa Bay & San Fran, with TB giving up 28 pts game and S.F giving up 30 pts a game. The Jets have one thing going for them: #1 against the run (64.1 yds/g), but they are sad against pass (#31, or last, but at bottom). And, Zona has SEA next week. They need to beat Seattle. And, if you believe in sandwich games, this is one for Zona, with them playing San Fran last week. So, that has me leaning toward taking the Jets with a TD+. I was looking last night at certain 'line numbers' and a few were outliers in the graph, they were outside the graph's line showing the possibility of winning with certain numbers in the spread. +7.5 was one that shot up for the DOG, then when back at 8, it was the normal direction of the graph line. Strange, but it was a 20 year look at NFL games and the line numbers. 7.5 and 10.5 were opposites: +7.5 heavily for dog and -10.5 for Favorite. I'm looking at maybe a 2-game parlay & teaser with Jets & G. Bay (the GB play -9 is simply a way to confuse players) as they looked terrible last week vs. Dallas and now have a HM Division game. They will ROLL. Always seems to happen like that. If it looks 'odd'? It is not, it is right. Zona is good at home and that has me hesitant. But, I do the 'talk to people at work' and they all say Arizona. That is usually wrong. So, go with what looked bad last week THIS week. Jets +7.5 Non-Conference, Non-Division game for both/both Div games next. GBay -9 Division HM game Cards-Jets under 46 Don't think these two will score more than 31-35 pts total. I may skip the parlay and go with a Teaser, due to Palmer is lights-out at home with Fitz and J. Brown. Then, if they can throw? They can run 2nd half, IF they aren't looking ahead. Usually, if things make sense? Then it is the wrong way to go. But, these NC-ND games? I go with the dog as it is the DIV games that are most important. GL to all. |
Covers | 39 |
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OK, I am DONE. This season has been THE most F'ed UP season ever in the NFL. The game itself has changed, RBBC, target games, travel team BS, the line is set up not so much on play, but on 1/2's and weird ass o'/u lines. I have NEVER seen so much change in the actual outcome and the line, it's like it's not even close! Either way! IF the dog wins? It's huge If the fav wins? It's just huge. I might as well flush my money down the drain. I am done. Not crying, or whining, but this is total dog shit. I make MUCH more money on baseball, but football? Good God! Everyone I know, even smart money, they are taking it up the chute, it seems to be an obvious line but, the movement makes no sense in any of the games, it's backward. Last minute mop ups are just almost every game. I'm fucking done! You have more luck playing the dog on the moneyline on every game. I promise you. IF you have to play, play the ML on the dog every game. TOO many people playing the chalk has changed and if you had a rough Sunday? ALWAYS take the dog on Monday night. This shit is crazy, I'm just a long time player who hasn't had this bad of luck in a decade. SOMETHING is wrong, and I'm on the outside looking in, but someone knows. They do. That puts us in an invisible position. Fuck this.
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BankOnIt22 | 995 |
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And, sorry for the long comment. My apologies, just gotta hurry - things to do today. TTY tomorrow.
"You have a better chance of winning money betting sports than playing the Stock Market" The difference is a level playing field with sports, not so with stocks. |
WillBetAnything | 100 |
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Cowboys FINALLY fattened up my roll . . . I was beginning to waver.
Sunday, got three plays that look just as good and I am betting all of my money this week on these, mainly cause I got a bad beat in Fantasy Football league - just bad timing+bad luck, otherwise I'm in playoffs today. But, I made 5 times more last night than the league pays to win it!!! Yee + Haw. Serious time. Here we go = I DO bet parlays, but use MoneyLine mostly, unless low spread. Bet your max units on each of these, ML play what you are comfortable with: DET -1 NYJETS +3 (-125) is what I have TENN -290(ML) PATS -7.5 My BEST BET is PATS -7.5, Broncos come back from dreamworld. Danger game, be careful on this one: Green Bay vs. KC. Last week, when Rodgers was ROLLING all over Oakland? They SAT him, replaced two or three guys, got conservative and 1. I lost my FFL (Rodgers is my QB) I needed one TD and Finley just disappeared! So, this game looks like a minefield. Parlay, one 3-teamer Jets +3 TENN ML (-290) Pats -7 (buy down to -7 or -6, either way) Have MON NITE all ready to go = RAVENS -2.5, I know the travel across US is a factor but they are playing what I think is a soft D and will go to ground-pound - plus, they have an extra day on the travel clock. Love the Ravens tomorrow nite. Good luck today! My 'place' has the PACK -175 to win the Super Bowl, in other words, repeat. I don't think so, for some reason, and I took a wild STAB and instead of jumping to the SB, I stopped off at the NFC winners station and, I took Dallas +900 to win the NFC. Hey, I'll worry about the SB later. Just gotta get thru today. ;) |
WillBetAnything | 100 |
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Sorry, but LMAO at the mention of THE POTATO BOWL, ha ha!
Used to, years ago, the absolutely worst bowl game was the Liberty? Bowl in Shreveport. I used drive by that stadium going to Bossier City, what a pile! How can ANY player wanna play there, for anything? Anyway, not wanting to make fun of any team or their players, it's just that I'm old enough to remember there being only like 8-10 bowl games, with BlueBonnet Bowl being in the Astrodome. and now??? HOLY CRAP, 35 BOWL GAMES! I am still holding on, despite being in my 50's, that ONE day, someone will pony up the bux and have "THE TOILET BOWL". I would pay to go to that game, no matter who was playing. I still like LSU as #1, am I right on that ? GL GUYS |
Covers | 34 |
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Is it just me, or does this seem like one of those bowls where ever other play is a score?
THIS what is worrying me because I look at the O/U and I feel an automatic OVER hit me in the head. Just from the gut to the brain. Someone, anyone tell me my instincts of 45+ yrs of wagering are right, on the OVER, thanks in advance! |
Covers | 34 |
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Skip used to have a column here in Dallas - in print, he's not too terribly bad, you know? But, watching him live, he is GRATING in his delivery or when he just HAMMERS a point, like a TV Preacher. Man, lighten up a bit. But, as someone above says, it certainly ISN'T boring. Now, the TWO guys that drive me nutz listening while trying to watch sports?
1. Norm Hitzges 2. Dick Vitale I don't think Skip is in their league. Yet. And, it COULD be an act as mentioned by CapAms above. |
ActionAddict | 43 |
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I think the Skins -10 should win this one and cover. O/U is 37, I don't expect much scoring on the other side of the ball, so might play this one 50/50, meaning: Half my play at Wash -10 and half buying down to -7, straight and/or in a parlay, as well. ML -500 is too high for me. Portis may have a decent game in this one.
GL |
BosssMan | 18 |
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Hey, good luck.
You will make it, just keep doing what you've been doing.
Make your own pick = trust your instincts.
"Facta, non verba"
Zildjian and Ms. VegasHercules
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zildjian50 | 1 |
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