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Quote Originally Posted by Crazyman2003: There is no guarantee AT ALL in gambling, you should have known that if you have been in this business long enough. Clippers will win outright tonight. You might not trust me but you can watch and figure out for yourself. The first part is true, but don't go crazy with the Clippers. That's actually the easier thing to do for the zig zaggers. Spurs are 8-0-1 ATS at in their last 9 closeout games at home; 8-1-0 ATS in the 1st half of those home closeout games. Clips got the drop on them last 2 games (1st half leads), but the spurs stole game 5. Even if this wasn't a closeout game, the spurs would be the play on both sides of the coin. NEVER FADE THE SPURS IN A CLOSEOUT GAME. That's how money is lost, not won.
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma: Why is this line getting higher? Wasn't it just -4.5 this morning, now -5.5?? Wtf. Shouldn't Philly be favored here? Did someone get hurt on the Eagles? Did I miss something? Preseason this line was Niners -6, which made sense as they were clearly a class above philly. It was adjusted down to 4,5 which is a definitive adjustment and usually about where vegas places lines when they don't have a strong lean in one direction or the other. The reason it's moving up is because the situation SCREAMS niners. they are off two losses and harbaugh is great off losses. Philly, meanwhile, has been digging themselves into holes and barely winning by much considering, which tends to imply there's been a little luck and some regression is due. Further, philly is off a tough fought game with a division opponent, specifically wanting to beat the much despised, egocentric, desean jackson. Perfect spot to fade the eagles. Coming into this week I expected to be on the niners, with situation totally in their favor. all that said, I am warming to the what ifs... what if the niners are just a dumpster fire team this year? all the harbaugh drama, the personnel issues, disgruntled vets, the fact that only 2 teams tend to come out of any one division and strong indicators suggest cards and hawks. or even what if they just aren't as good as last year. even Dynasties have their off year and 3 straight years of NFC championship games almost seems like they're due for an off one. Then the eagles... what if the second half adjustments keep coming... what if the first halves get fixed and THAT's the regression. What if the team is still in the process of improving and maximizing potential within the new schemes that chip brought to philly? Given the season to point, this line does feel inflated. you could certainly argue that the eagles have taken a hit on the o-line, but that would have to be factored into the line at this point, which just really looks too high. all these things tell me that if you're just looking at the ML, I can't believe the niners win this game 2 out of every 3 times (2 to 1 aka +200 ML) and that alone is worth a play as we still don't know enough to dismiss the small samples that suggest philly is legitimately improved this year and the niners are legitimately a step down from last year. The first half is absolutely a logical play given the first half tendencies of both teams, but if you believe the line may be inflated, like i do, I'd rather not have to lay a heavy price at any point of the game when I could just take the value... PHILLY +5/ML
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Quote Originally Posted by MATRIX_WIZARD: Okay, so the last time in Buffalo they worked San Diego by 9 23-14 right? The line then was Buffalo (-1 ). Today it's -2.5 and will most likely end up (-3 ). This numerical pattern almost always favors the favorite. Take a look at Carolina last week. Same thing. Also, after what the Chargers did to Seattle, why aren't they favored? See what I mean? And Diego currently has the entire betting community behind then by almost 70%! BUFFALO -2.5 or -3 either way. The bills are favored because they are 2-0 and the bolts are 1-1, plus everyone knows about the west team traveling east to the extent that it is being built into the line. Also, earlier in the week sharps are betting more than public so percentages are skewed. Plus the math behind percentages of tickets only kicks in around 80/20, where there is an edge in taking the public fade approach. doing that at anything less is not helping your cause. One more. Teams that are +2.5 win upwards of 55% of the time so there is a slight edge in being on that side. One data point from last week pales in comparison to the hundreds of data points the other way even if it was relevant on it's own. Sharps often are willing to look at the other side when the line hits 3, which is why vegas is rarely willing to get there. I'll be on CHARGERS +2.5, but will likely be teasing this up. Bills are TERRIBLE the week after playing miami. They consider it a huge rivalry game. Also, they MAY be decent but the chargers could be contenders. Much better QB play, and they are $$ as underdogs. 2-0 already this year and 6-3-1 last year.
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Quote Originally Posted by babygus17: sure the timing seemed strange after back to back blowout wons, but cheeks has been coaching himself to an early exit all year...Detroit shouldnt be this bad
tonio large. highly doubt detroit can put it together after shocking coaching change |
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Quote Originally Posted by vegasroy: betting suns 1 st half the bulls played last night Bulls playing last night helps them in the first half if anything and maybe hurts them in the second half. Its a lot easier to get going when youve been playing... you just tire out sooner. Think i like the over here, but probably in the first half
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Quote Originally Posted by wlmackey: its 4 games in 6 nights and phx had a night off before this game plus this is indys first game home from a 5 game west coast road trip, most teams dont cover on first game home from long road trips.... look at the clippers last night... clippers won but Washington covered. Indy might win but no way they win by 13. oh ya phx is 6-0 ats in the last six with indy. Phoenix +12 It actually is 4th in 5, but otherwise this post is money. I agree with and endorse your thoughts and style and will add that the suns have a deep rotation that keeps heavy minutes off their starters and that last time they met, indy had no answer for their frenitic pace, even in ghe second half where they normally adjust to teams and make a move. Just a bad match and a bad spot for indy who is laying way too many points against a team that is 7-1 ATS catching 8 points or more. Load up... Suns +12
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Serious sandwich/look ahead spot for new york. They just hammered a boston team that had dominated them and now have the much despised heat coming to town on saturday. Its because cleveland is a mediocre (for the east) team that I like the chances that new york looks past them on the schedule.
Cavs +6
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I may look to keep in the 1st Quarter but its wizards or pass imo
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Quote Originally Posted by surmountall: Not a good home team to bet against .. Could be a high scoring drubbing .. -16.5 Coming home off a dominant east coast road trip with the warriors on deck is about as good a spot as you will ever get to fade the clips at home and the wizards defense travels. Clips hammered them in washington, that kind of stuff doesnt happen twice with decent teams which the wizards have become
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Quote Originally Posted by JLee4: One of the hardest situational games is the first game home off a road trip, and that's tonight. This angle works at a much better percentage when you fade a team off an opposite conference road trip spanning 7+ days. There are some other reasons to play Orlando though so hopefully you cash. Im not messing with this one personally.
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I think this is a bad spot for the pacers off a natipnally televised butt whooping of the Knicks. Clips come in with vengengance for an earlier home loss to the pacers, have taken 3 of 4 1st halves in indy, and should roll in with a little momentum after running awaay from the knicks who shouldve been in a good spot last night. I respect what Indy doea in second halves too much to ride this one out gor the game...
Clips +5 1st half
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Man, idk. .. im grabbing my cajones and going the other way. Bucks have covered 4 of last 5 trips to Houston winning a few outright. This is the definition of a sandwich spot for the rockets who play the blazers next with vengence in mind and could easily overlook a bottm feeding bucks squad
Bucks +14
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CAshed some fat tickets on the heat last night and i think some of that good play spills over to tonight so im takingn them for a quarter then getting out of the way. Charlotte came within a bucket of winning in miami last time they met and its not like the heat havent dome them in 1Qs in Charlotte, leading by at least the game spread after 1Q last 3 trips to Charlotte
Miami -2 1Q
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I Agree... public seems to really like the Sixers yet this line opens 8 and moves up. Bulls been playing a lot better, covering majority of their games since a game or two before the deng trade. I think sixers are actually in a letdown spot since everyone will be more focused aganst the defending champs than a middling letdown team regardless of the bulls rep.
Bulls -8.5
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Quote Originally Posted by surmountall: Raps should not be favored ???? I agree with the dude who ranted on you. I dont get why the raptors arent favored by 3 or more, especially given their spot off a bad loss and history of owning the wolves. Im almost worried im missing something, but im gonna take a shot with the raptors
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This is simple... Miami just got their a$$ handed to them and have lost 3 straight. If anything is going to kick their butts into gear its an embarassing performance off 2 prior losses. Add to that they will remember getting cold cocked by this sixers team last time out so they will definitely take them seriously. Heat were money in revenge last year. I think this is about as perfect a spot as you may ever get to jump on the heat. The number may scare you, but if this were the playoffs, (ignore that Philly wont make it), wouldnt you expect a thrashing?
Heat -10 UNLOADING
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*extends olive branch to Quad Yeah*
I said my piece, no hard feelings.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah: Confucius Say, "Man who speak with forked tongue not need chop sticks"...... I will wish Good Luck to you sir, and by "Luck" I mean "Andrew" HA!!!!!! Just Kidding!!!!! Good Luck anyways - to everybody.......... Peace, I'm outta here - - see y'all after the game....... Fair enough.
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Quote Originally Posted by LOCKBOY: man, i'd be scared trusting dalton and an otherwise winless (in the playoffs) bengals team on that. Anything I teased took the chargers up to 13. Chargers losing by 10 or more would be the biggest surprise of the weekend for me if it happened.
Teased Pack plus 9 to Bengals -1 ..Liking It alot |
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Quote Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah: A-Rod back, Matthews back, and the game's in Lambeau? In January? Against a fairweather team? AND I GET POINTS???? https://www.google.com/#q=weather+forecast+Lambeau+Field High of 19 degrees, partly cloudy, wind @ 13mph.... Not even overthinking this one - all the signs are there. Too bad Mario Manningham's out, the Niners really could've used another offensive weapon with cold weather and playoff experience...... Good Luck All!!!!! Hard to call that solid process, but I agree with your points. To me I just think the spread is out of whack.. would you lay 8.5 with the niners at home in this matchup? That's just stupid. Rodgers has never been the problem, and while the niners are certainly the better team, the pack with rodgers is always going to have a better offense. I think the pack practicing in these temps all week while the niners get to see it for the first time on sunday is huge. Also, I hear a lot "if these teams played 10 times i think team x would win y times" and honestly it's seriously getting to this point... 4 times in 2 years for out of division foes? In no world would I believe rodgers will lose to anyone 100% of the time to anyone and this is about as ideal as conditions are going to get for him to prove that. It's hard to throw stats in too much because the pack's are all screwed up from the weeks that rodgers was out and they had horrendous QB play, but I'm going to assume this is the same team they were before he left (sans mathews, but that's not worth more than a point in line value for any defensive player except maybe watts). It feels like every year or two there's a road team in round one that takes an overwhelming amount of public money and pushes the line to +2.5, but even with an absurd amount of tickets (70+% is enormous in the playoffs) on frisco, most sharp books have refused to flash a +3 and that means they need the pack to win. Any time you can bet with the books in these huge money disparages, you are making a +ev play... take the pack ML if you want and you make it easier to see, they don't even need to win 50% of the time for that to be smart and given these conditions, I think they win this game much more than 50%. PACK +2.5/ML
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