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go to daily analysis....he has both an afternoon and evening section for holiday tournament time of year. He's one of the best in CBB (others would be stuckey and sportscheetah on twitter for full games and coversnuggz for 2nd halfs)
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nropp11 | 100 |
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www.nropp.com
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nropp11 | 100 |
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Thanks for the input and I partially agree with what you're saying. But isn't vegas' goal to juice out? Why force one side if the goal is to get even action and collect juice? I'm positive there are instances where they're sure of the outcome and do set lines to force/attract action on what they believe willing be the losing side (i.e. setting a team that has looked outclassed at a 3.5-4 pt favorite trying to attract Spurs $ tonight). If I'm hearing you correctly, you think that's the case with the series price as well. My thought is possible...but not likely. 4.5 to 1 on what i believe is an outcome with a far better than 18% chance of occurring is looking more and more like a no-brainer play for a single unit. If OKC wins tonight, it probably jumps from +450 to +200-250.
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turner4naismith | 7 |
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Definitely on Thunder tonight (-3.5) for my largest bet yet of this year's playoffs and I'm thinking hard about plopping down a unit (or more) on the series. Why is OKC only +450 when they're down 2-0? Boston also down 2-0, but priced at +950. Tells me that either Vegas thinks it's completely possible for them to come back or I'm just an OKC sucker. Thoughts?
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turner4naismith | 7 |
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Buckeyes by 12-15....what the hell is Cincinnati going to do if they get down double digits (their outside shooting is suspect at best)? Cincy's not going to get good looks in the first place/ let alone second chance points (OSU will have height/weight advantage at every single position other than one). Rebounding/O-rebounding is single most important factor other than shooting.
Michigan St. by 8-10.....same difference only more exaggerated on the rebounding margins. Maybe a backdoor cover if Kuric/R. Smith hit a couple of late threes and MSU doesn't hold serve at the foul line late....I'll also be on the over 125 in this one. Wisconsin/Cuse down to last possession....Cuse going to get extremely frustrated by Wisc. style of play, especially if refs let Wisc play like they let them in B10....flopping, holding, swiping at every dribbler that turns the corner. This is possibly the only BEast victory tonight. Total line set at 120...you tell me who vegas thinks will win the tempo/style of play battle??? Florida outright....P. Young or Beal is going to have a big (20+ point) game....you can throw Murphy into that mix as well. Crowder can't guard them both/all at the same time. That and MARQ will lose the 3pt battle (decisively) b/c they'll have to overcommitt down low. This isn't the year to fade the B10....how much more proof does everyone need? 9-2 overall w/4 teams in sweet 16 not enough w/one of those being Kansas' narrow escape against Purdue (the 6th place team in the conference)? BEast also has 4...out of 9! |
EdHochuli85 | 31 |
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Clemson -7.5
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WillBetAnything | 80 |
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Marshall +3.5
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WillBetAnything | 68 |
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UCONN +3.5
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WillBetAnything | 82 |
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Seton Hall +8.5
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WillBetAnything | 67 |
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Miami (FL) -8.5
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WillBetAnything | 64 |
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Virginia/B.C. Over 110
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WillBetAnything | 74 |
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Villanova +9.5
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WillBetAnything | 60 |
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Miami (FL) -1.5
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WillBetAnything | 66 |
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UNC -7
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WillBetAnything | 72 |
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WMU -4.5
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WillBetAnything | 73 |
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Maryland +12 (record should be 3-1....hit Ohio St. -11.5 on Sunday)
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WillBetAnything | 72 |
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Ohio St. -11.5 (bet when lines were released around midnight yesterday)
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WillBetAnything | 54 |
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UNLV -2.5
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WillBetAnything | 71 |
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Manhattan +14
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WillBetAnything | 77 |
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Texas A&M +12
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WillBetAnything | 71 |
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