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Something definitely smells fishy with this line. Just about everything points to KSU opening a can of whoop-azz on Texas. TxTech and Kansas had absolutely horrid defenses and that's why Texas was able to run all over them with their top RBs. Against a stout run defense and without their top-3 RBs and WR, Texas HAD to throw the ball and the green longhorn QBs showed they just don't have that kind of experience yet.
Texas may get two of their RBs back this week, but KSU's run defense is not too bad and it could be a wash. That means Texas will have to rely on the arm's of their two green QBs once again, which may fare a little bit better since KSU has one of the worst passing defenses. I'll take experience in key positions on this one. KSU +9 |
Covers | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by D_Unit: What running back doesn't avg atleast 5 yrd per carry against that vaunted Rice Owl defense? Yes, obsiously your a Texas homer w/ that statement. BYU's D-line is big and physical. They knocked out 4 Ole Miss players out of the game last week. That being said, I like the UNDER. Not to mention that most of Malcom's touches came in the 2H (when the Owl's defense was sucking wind). I'm wondering if BYU's defense will provide enough pressure to cause mistakes by Texas. Should be interesting. I like the under as well. |
Covers | 16 |
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This Texas team has no spirit, no leadership, injuries, and coaches that have no answer for the downward spiral. The QB is tied for 3rd in FBS in INT's and is uncomfortable in the pocket. I heard they just lost one of their RB's for the season as well (not that they have much of a running attack). Plus, FAU generally plays Texas tough (at least in the 1H). I think Texas may win, but just barely.
FAU +21 |
Covers | 12 |
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I wholeheartedly agree with echelon1. OkSt is on fire this year, and Texas has lost all ability to try (let alone win). I've just very worried about the low line open and the movement thus far. Should be OkSt by 2 TD's, if not 3. Plus, Texas is 1-3 at home, so home field advantage is actually a disadvantage for them this year.
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Covers | 42 |
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Quote Originally Posted by buckeyechuck: 2 Important facts.... Iowa St defense really, really sucks.... Mack Brown loves to run it up.... TX covers.... Huh? Texas was on their way to score vs. Nebraska at the very end of the game. You'd think of all games, Mack would have have punched another one in vs. the Cornhuskers (even a field goal) to make his team look more dominant in that match-up. Instead, Texas took a knee to end the game. As far as the game is concerned, I'm leaning Texas, but not I'm still not 100% sold on their offense yet. They have improved a lot since the UCLA game by puttin 20 on both OU and Nebraska, but am still not sure. I think the OC for Texas (G. Davis) opened up his playbook a little more for Nebraska by removing the TE's and running more designed QB draws, but that may just be something he needed against Nebraska and will revert to his conservative style again vs. Iowa St. (especially since both the backup QB's are true Freshmen - can't afford an injury to Gilbert right now). But, Iowa St. though really sucks on both ends, and Texas' defense is coming on (now that the offense is actually not puttin them on the field the whole game). I'll probably take Texas in this one. |
Covers | 36 |
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Leaning Nebraska here. Ok St.'s dominance is in the air, which is Nebraska's defensive strength. They shut down the kid from Washington and they'll probably do the same to the Cowboys. My only concerns with Nebraska are turnovers and their quasi-one-dimensional attack. If they can stack the box and spread their LB's to make Martinez run b/w the tackles, it could slow things up for the Cornhuskers. I still like a great defense over a great offense any day, though.
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Covers | 50 |
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I wouldn't put too much value on both the team's stats up to this point, except maybe turnovers - which both seem to have their fair share with. Yes, Nebraska leads in a lot of categories, but who have they really played? South Dakota State (which they struggled with due to the LB's spreading the field and limiting Martinez's gaps)? How about a 4-0 (at the time) Kansas State team (which really played no one, either, and, whose defense is porous at best)?
I'm not saying NU is bad by any means. In fact, I give them the edge in this contest, but I don't think it will be a cake-walk, either. If they get behind to Texas early, it could be a very long day as they've never had to play catch-up this year yet. On the other side, Texas seemed to wake-up on the offensive side vs. Oklahoma. Far from stellar, but better than in previous games. On the defensive side, they still have some issue as well. I think the line is about right in this one. |
Covers | 41 |
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@dddevin69 - After Texas burned me last week on the cover and under (thanks defense), not sure if my advice is worth much - LOL.
Another thing I heard reference to was the similarities to 2007. Texas was steamrolling opponents, and Kansas State came to town a week before the OU rivalry game. Texas was an easy favorite at home against the Wildcats, but ended up getting pounded by them 41-21. Again, this was in Austin. The next week they played OU and lost by 7 (28-21, which is strikingly similar to your prediction this year). Just something else to consider if you follow those types of trends. |
Covers | 46 |
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The Texas offense just keeps getting worse. I posted in last week's game thread how the only way Texas would lose is if their offense continued to stink it up. Lo-and-behold, not only did their offense play like utter crap, but so did their special teams and even their defense (which was the biggest shocker of all).
Even though this is the biggest regular season game for both teams and a HUGE rivalry, it has generally gone in favor of the better team in the last decade or so. The question then is WHO is the better team? From my standpoint it is OU - they aren't the mighty OU we are used to seeing, but they are definitely better than this error-prone, offensive nightmare that is Texas. As an aside, people usually point to stats that shed a little light on a team's ability to produce. For this, I looked at the net take-aways for each team: OU +8 Texas -3 Pretty astounding. And that's the total for the year. Just in the last two games, OU has turned the ball over ONCE while Texas has turned it over NINE times. Hard to dismiss that. Still, this is a big game, and am a little uneasy placing a bet either way. If I were, though, I'd go with OU. |
Covers | 46 |
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What I've been reading, Gilbert seems to have a problem eyeballing his targets, which gives the defense ample time to adjust to his passes. This is something a lot of young QB's have and the coaching staff will need to keep teaching him. The running game - while decent - just isn't up to expectations at the moment. In a nutshell, the Texas offense just isn't in sync right now. As with several games this year, the Texas offense may end up putting points on the board FOR THE OPPOSITION (or, at least, give them the opportunity to score).
Conversely, their defense is top-notch with speed and athleticism across the board. Coach Brown may be right in saying this is the best defensive unit he's ever had. Holding Taylor Potts to <160YPG passing is a feat no matter who the head coach is. I look for the defense to completely shut down UCLA's offense. Leaning Texas and under |
Covers | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RandyandShirl: You guys think "Mack Brown was just using the Rice and Wyoming games to work on his running game"? Uh... Okay.... not great handicapping IQ... but... have it your way. LY Texas was #59 in pass efficiency defense... Tech senior QB Potts has gotta be licking his chops! The dog is 6-2 ATS L8 in this series. GLTA... but, you guys go ahead and put your money on Texas... I'm on: Texas Tech +3 1/2 Sorry man. I will say this though, after watching the game ... Texas' pass offense isn't all together like I had thought. Looks like their defense will be carrying them for most of the year. |
Covers | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious: almost beat bama, huh? he really tore them a new asshole. go ahead and hang your hat on that one. bit of a homer? I'll take potts right now From what I've heard, so will Texas. They seem to do better vs. a pocket-type passer like Potts. Sheffield is more mobile and could pose more of a threat to the Texas defense. |
Covers | 35 |
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Careful. Mack Brown was using the Rice and Wyoming games to try to work on his running game (which still isn't there). Once he let Gilbert Garrett's arm loose, the Texas offense was a completely different team and easily rolled up points. Also, the talk is that Texas wanted to keep the playbook closed until the game vs. Tech.
Tech, on the other hand, seemed shaky vs. SMU. Had SMU not turned the ball over, Tech's win may have even been in jeopardy. Granted, TTech seems to play Texas exceptionally tough at home no matter where the teams are ranked. I look for TTech to come out with an early lead, due to their home fans, and Texas to start slow. Probably 17-10 or 21-10 TTech at halftime. But then Texas will find their rythym in the 2H and shut down TTech's offense in the process. Something like Texas 34 TTech 24 as a final score. |
Covers | 35 |
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I've gotten burned by Texas twice so far this year, and am hesitant to take them in this game even though everything points to at least a 3 TD win.
Sports radio stations in Austin are all over the fact that Greg Davis is tuning the Texas "O" to compensate for their lackluster play so far this year (I know - they still lead the nation in PPG, but they are still anemic at times). Goodwin (a true freshman) played inspired ball vs. OU and is now expected to start as WR. (Some speculate this was actually something planned before the OU game.) Williams will also start and Shipley will move over to slot, where he is most effective. There are some other minor changes in the offensive line. My gut says Mizzou won't score more than 2 TD's against one of the best defenses in the nation. The "?" will be how good Texas' offense will be against the mediocre MU defense. Maybe: Texas-38, MU-10 ??? |
Covers | 23 |
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I see this being similar to last year with a little more edge going the Longhorn's way. Their defense is as good, if not better, than last year, and if McCoy wouldn't throw INT's leading to scores the other way, it'd show. OU's O-line isn't top-5 caliber (yet), and injuries have plagued them. Texas' offense has been lethargic the 1H of many of their games this year, but you can bet they'll be up for this game from the starting gun (and looking for some payback from being kept out of the B12 championship game). Last year, both teams headed into the game with good offenses and defenses, and the offense stole the show. With sunny skies predicted, I see the same thing this year.
Texas 42 Oklahoma 30 |
Covers | 122 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dddevin69: What do you all think the score will be?
I'm thinking
OU 45
Florida 38
Yeah, if I go by this I would have to take the over. I'm leaning more towards betting on OU than I am the over. I thought this SB with the pats and Giants would be high scoring, but it wasn't. Maybe FLorida's D makes this a chess match with a lower than expected point total. Plus OU's D isn't shabby either. I see alot of trash talking by SEC fans about the Big 12's D. NEWSFLASH: don't be a moron. teams like Ttech and Mizzou may be lacking on D compared to the SEC. Get a clue SEC homers. OU isn't Ttech or Mizzou. OU isn't even OSU or Texas. yeah, I'm calling out Texas too. OU is another level compared to all of their big 12 counterparts, so the theory of "you don't play against good D" can kinda be overated at best. Ex. look at the 90's Nebraska Cornhuskers. I remember people saying back then...."Oh those Big 12 teams can't compete with the SEC or Big 10 (yeah, Big 10, specifically Penn State with Kerry Collins". Plus Nebraska plays a weak Non Conf schedule and Big 8. Educated fans know what happened with that logic. Nebraska whipped up on a SEC Florida in a Natl title game and became probably the best college team of the 90s. My point? you might want to do your research when you handicap this game and actually confer with people who have actually seen OU play. Ovearll, it's very misleading to use the Tebow logic of "I wish I could play against Big 12 Defenses..." How many times has this been disproven of Conference A is so much better than Conf B? Look at the NBA. The East conf was trash, but Detroit didn't know that when they beat LA in 2004. Hint: you might want to handicap Team A v Team B....rather than SEC blah blah blah is so much better than ......than the Big 12. Oklahoma was #1 in the country and piling on the points well before they played Texas on a neutral field and LOST by 10 points, so I wouldn't be buying into the Oklahoma hype, either. Oklahoma's defense is good, but definitely not great. Their offense is monstrous just as long as they don't play against someone with a decent defense, like Texas and TCU. TxTech, OSU, and Mizzou are NOT great defenses. But even ignoring all those things, the one issue that looms is Stoops' post-season woes of late. His teams are 0-4 in the last four, including several (all?) in which they were favored to win. This tells me the coaching staff may not be doing what it takes to get the troops ready to play in January. |
Mr_Covers | 570 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 20658: Colt McCoy is a 2A quarterback. Just so you know what that means in Texas High Schools are positioned by districts with enrollment, and class size.
Colt McCoy went to a 2A High School, but he put up a lot of points on far...far inferior talent. They have bulked him up and made him decent, but he is not good/great. OU has major faults in loosing to this caliber of an athlete. I would not be surprised if Florida wins by 3 or 4 TDs.
While I think Florida will win by 10-14 pts, I think you're calling out McCoy as not good/great is assinine. No, he only lead the team in rushing and rushing YPG - both figures better than Tebow and Bradford - all while having the best passing efficiency in the country. Not to mention Texas was not expected to be in the Top-5, let alone not even be mentioned anywhere near the CG, at the beginning of the year (they were ranked #9 and #10 in the first polls). Tells you how much this kid has matured. |
Mr_Covers | 570 |
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I think the most evenly matched teams out there today are Florida and Texas. Oklahoma has gone on an offensive juggernaut to end the season, but against who really? When they've actually had to play a team with a decent defense, like Texas and TCU, they only managed 35pts. I see this game going almost like the OU/UT game with Florida's line wearing down OU's lines late in the game. Plus, Stoops hasn't been exactly a good post-season coach of late (1-4 in the last 5).
Florida 49 Oklahoma 38 |
Mr_Covers | 570 |
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Of the 12 Big-XII championship games played thus far, the underdog has WON five of them. Not (just) beat the spread, but won SU. On paper, I think Oklahoma will win going away, but ...
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Mr_Covers | 93 |
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Leaning toward OU, but may lay off the game. Oklahoma hasn't played a ranked team on the road yet. They are blasting creampuffs at home and the road, but hard to tell at this point what they can do to a ranked team on the road at night. Especially it being a big rivalry game.
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deliveryman3 | 36 |
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