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Surprised this steam occurred AFTER one of their seven-man rotation declared out. Quote Originally Posted by Meathook13:
Cavaliers now -5.5. Points are going to be at a premium. |
Meathook13 | 3 |
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I know some folks affiliated with Charleston's team, and the place is in disarray right now, even before Cremins took the leave of absence. And the results are showing -- in January, the Cougs have lost five games outright as favorites of 1.5, 5.5, 6.5, 8.5 and 14.5. I don't see how they're favored over anyone right now, especially away from home.
Anyway, just food for thought.
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smoltzfan | 2 |
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If Cal returns 4 starters, it is a bit misleading because they have 2 new starters this year. One of their returning "starters," Brandon Smith, is really a non-factor and isn't even their 6th or 7th best player. They were deeper last year up front, but lost a starter and a couple bench guys to graduation/kicked off team. I have no doubt they can run with Oregon State, but the fatigue and foul factors could play a role. If they play like they did 2H UCLA, they should be fine. Quote Originally Posted by sloop703:
Yeah, they're not really that deep, are they? I was a little concerned about the pace for this game, but (correct me if i'm wrong), Cal returns 4 starters this year, and they seemed to do fine last year against teams that were as quick as Oregon State, with the exception of Washington, who creamed them twice. So I'm banking on their experience and the fact that they were able to beat a quick Oregon St. team twice last year coming into effect here. Damn, I forgot this game isn't on until 10. Oh well. It should be a good one. How about that insane shooting performance against UCLA on Saturday? Hope we see that again tonight... |
sloop703 | 49 |
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Sloop--
Love the analysis, and hope you're spot on with Cal. As a Bears fan who has watched a lot of their games (and attended the games here in KC), the problem with Cal on the road is that they really have just five legitimate players (6 if Solomon is healthy, which he hasn't been, though he made the trip). So if one or two are in foul trouble (more likely on road) or just have an off night (more likely on road) then the drop-off on the bench is really dramatic. And a team like Oregon State that gets up and down is the less good matchup -- see what Missouri and UNLV did -- because running teams are more likely to create more fouls and/or tire out a short-bench team. Again, hope you nailed this one, but this may be the reason for the line movement.
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sloop703 | 49 |
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Never. In. Doubt.
Keep rolling, Neil.
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nropp11 | 972 |
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Okay...waiting to see if I can get 8 or 8.5 on the contest, but it will be Montana minus the points. Hope I can actually share a winner! (And South Florida should be great now that I'm NOT playing them...)
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smoltzfan | 4 |
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Too busy to actually bet NCAAB, so just keeping sharp on Streak Survivor -- and what do you know, 7 in a row and 9 out of 10. (Would be 10 out of 10 if I didn't tail that bum nropp last week on San Diego. Just kidding, Neil's the best capper on this site).
Anyway, figured I would share the game that will inevitably break my streak since I'm sharing it. Deciding between Montana and South Florida right now. The one I don't pick will assuredly cover. Any thoughts welcome, and I'll let you know where I end up... |
smoltzfan | 4 |
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Well, I admit this is pointless. But I'm in this pool where I try to pick 6 games correctly, and 6-0 wins a prize. I've managed to go 4-2 each of the last six weeks. Yay, no prize, but look at me picking two thirds right.
Anyway, I'm very likely to be 1-2 in the early games. So, I'm just saying -- a three-teamer of my other three picks (SD, TB, BAL) may do you well. This is obviously for entertainment purposes only. Pay more attention to the real handicappers on here.
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smoltzfan | 2 |
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I am on OU +1, and am quite pleased that the line is moving in their direction.
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jesron1269 | 31 |
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I guess I should have come on here before, but I didn't realize anyone was actually capping these games. I am now 5-0 in this weekend of the women's tourney (Xavier over Gonzaga, UConn over ISU, OU over ND, and both games yesterday).
Anyway, take it or leave it, but OU is my final four pick, and so I'm sticking with 'em. Sooners +1. |
smoltzfan | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3: smoltzfan -- it is definitely for real, although the stat has taken a massive hit this year. Coming into the year, Howland was something sick like 42-3 on Thursday games. I don't know the exact numbers, but yes, it was that lopsided. Doesn't look like a massive hit to me -- only looking at the conference games, and he's 4-1 on Thursdays (and 2-5 on weekends) |
kaponofor3 | 54 |
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As a Cal fan, I couldn't agree more with your Oregon State pick. Until Cal shows any consistency to beat bad teams -- especially Oregon State, in particular, who had won a few in a row against Cal before going down to the wire in Berkeley -- betting against them with a home dog is the way to go.
One question -- when I was at the UCLA-Cal game at Pauley a few weeks back, the guy sitting next to me was explaining how UCLA beat Cal in Berkeley with the idea of "Ben Howland never loses on Thursday." Something like 45-1 since he got to UCLA. Is that for real? If so, does that make UCLA ML more appealing? I don't think this is a coincidental trend -- with time to prepare, maybe he's just that detailed. |
kaponofor3 | 54 |
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As a Cal fan, I couldn't agree more with your Oregon State pick. Until Cal shows any consistency to beat bad teams -- especially Oregon State, in particular, who had won a few in a row against Cal before going down to the wire in Berkeley -- betting against them with a home dog is the way to go.
One question -- when I was at the UCLA-Cal game at Pauley a few weeks back, the guy sitting next to me was explaining how UCLA beat Cal in Berkeley with the idea of "Ben Howland never loses on Thursday." Something like 45-1 since he got to UCLA. Is that for real? If so, does that make UCLA ML more appealing? I don't think this is a coincidental trend -- with time to prepare, maybe he's just that detailed. |
kaponofor3 | 54 |
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As a U.Va. grad, I think I agree that all signs point to a blowout. And I agree with the bones of your analysis.
However, the one counter I would point out is that U.Va. has lost 8 games this year -- but only twice by double digits. Tony Bennett really is getting more with less this year, and I guess I wouldn't be surprised if we keep it close. Good luck. |
accventures | 84 |
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Out of 19 "experts", guess how many pick Green Bay straight up.
19. Heck, 20 if you add in the Sports Guy. I mean, EVERYONE is on the Pack. I'm not a pure Joe Public basher, but this is striking me as a set up for an Arizona win. https://sportsil |
smoltzfan | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by smoltzfan: Just as I suspected. Went 1-1 yesterday. I know the ODU-Dayton game has started, and I have no play on it. But every single thing I look at pointed to ODU. I allowed that to be overcome by the fact that I've watched Dayton and I've watched ODU, and Dayton just feels a little better, and the game's at Dayton, and so forth. So we'll see if my "feelings" trump my "handicapping" in that game. Anyway, I will throw one pick out there. Vandy -11. Go Dores. YTD: 5-2 (4-1 on Virginia and Cal, 1-1 on my brave new world of other picks). By the way, before anyone points it out, obviously I was 8-0 unposted (for reasons I explained yesterday), and was curious to see if I could actually post winners away from my alma maters. The answer was, well, 1-1. |
smoltzfan | 2 |
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Just as I suspected. Went 1-1 yesterday.
I know the ODU-Dayton game has started, and I have no play on it. But every single thing I look at pointed to ODU. I allowed that to be overcome by the fact that I've watched Dayton and I've watched ODU, and Dayton just feels a little better, and the game's at Dayton, and so forth. So we'll see if my "feelings" trump my "handicapping" in that game. Anyway, I will throw one pick out there. Vandy -11. Go Dores. YTD: 5-2 (4-1 on Virginia and Cal, 1-1 on my brave new world of other picks). |
smoltzfan | 2 |
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Adding:
Oakland +21 1/2. That will be all for today. Good luck. |
smoltzfan | 4 |
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But, of course, since I have a one-year-old and am out of actually playing for money at the moment, my "wins" are limited to Streak Survivor and other such things that don't actually net me money. It would make sense that when my capping is actually sharp, I'm not actually capping for $$.
So, I figured I'd post a pick or two here and see if I could break my own streak through pure karma. Or, if I extend the streak, hopefully someone else will make money. Anyway, 4-1 YTD posted (on Virginia and Cal games only). Tonight: Miss. St. -11. Good luck! |
smoltzfan | 4 |
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Oh, for crying out loud. Scott appears to be "questionable" with a high ankle sprain, and will give it a go in warmups; without him, it's a no-play. Hopefully, there will be news one way or the other -- starting lineups should tell the tale.
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smoltzfan | 4 |
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