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Quote Originally Posted by richwins81:
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin: Here's a better trend... Saints are 18-0 at home in their last 18 games they have a winning record. Bottom line? It's tough to get a win in NO when they are good. Defending superbowl champs coming through??? The crowd will be into it. This is the team the Saints should've played. What do you think Sean Payton did after that loss to Minnesota? Take a look https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/sean-payton-game-planned-for-eagles-even-after-minneapolis-miracle-kod-the-saints/ HE GAME PLANNED FOR A GAME HE NEVER HAD TO COACH AS HIS THERAPEUTIC WAY TO GET OVER IT! There has been a lot of revenge games for the Saints this season. Minnesota of course. The rams... They lost to the Rams last year in LA without lattimore and crawley (or a diff corner I forget off the top of my head). And here comes the Eagles limping in with numerous injuries pilling up. Can the Eagles cover? Sure.. But expect the Saints to score (as usual) in their 30 point range. I don't think the Eagles can keep up. I have asked numerous times to LC why he keeps underrating the Saints. He has never responded. Carolina his NFC SB pick has lost to them 3x last year. The Saints want the home field advantage.. They will win Sunday and I think the Chiefs will do in the Rams on MNF. LC - Your NBA picks have simply been ridiculous. These hot starts have been amazing. Thanks for all the posts!Also:Defending super bowl champs who are underdogs when coming off a SU favorite loss are 8-3 SU and 9-0-2 ATS in this situation when Davi g a foe coming off a win of 7 or more points... For me, that's the critical point (see highlighted text); that is, with the EAGLES suffering from cluster injuries in the secondary you have to figure the Saints will get their points considering how hot their offense is running. So, if you like the EAGLES you have to figure this game is a strong candidate to go OVER the number. |
LeagueCapper | 50 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rr207:
Steelers are looking past this game vs Jacksonville, onto the Patriots. That’s not good PIT got their ass kicked all over the ball park in their first game against JAX. I really, really doubt you will find them looking past the JAGS. |
LeagueCapper | 180 |
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I see EAGLES +3 and the BIRDS are openly talking about being disrespected. We've Sarkisian vs Schwartz which is a big match-up advantage for the EAGLES. Last year the Eagles beat the Falcons at home and managed to limit Shannahan led offense to 15 points. What we need here is Foles to be an effective game manager and we have a big advantage with the Eagles. Take the 3 and play some on the moneyline. Here's an interesting statistic the Falcons have played 8 games against playoff teams this year and the OU is 0-8 with every game covering by more than a TD. Having said that most of the value has been wrung out of the total (41.0-41.5) as the market had downgraded Eagles' offense with Foles and expects a heavy dose of the run game. Let's hope for really cold weather as the Falcons, a dome team, head north. |
LeagueCapper | 79 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:
A lot of hate on the Giants pick, gl to you if you’re betting WAS, you’re the one that probably needs it.Most Lopsided Spread Bets:SF 76%WAS 76%MIN 69% Not hate, just an open flow of information which should be par for the course in every forum. |
LeagueCapper | 50 |
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LC good call on the GIANTS. It pays to be a contrarian. It pays even more to be a contrarian and be right! Good Luck with the rest of the games. |
LeagueCapper | 50 |
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I hope you cash your GIANTS bet but they should answer to team turmoil as Hart was cut this week and Flowers is a no go for Sunday. Is there any fight left in this team? They've been through a ton of stuff from head coaches being fired to cluster injuries at wide receiver, and a trifecta of suspension in the defensive backfield, oh and a quarterback controversy. You'd need a psychiatrist to sift through this game. Good Luck. |
LeagueCapper | 50 |
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I think a lot of people are over looking how important Bobby Wagner is to this Seattle defense. Without Wagner in the line-up the Hawks are ATS 2-6, OU 6-2 and could have a tough time stopping Gurley. Much like Sean Lee in Dallas, Bobby Wagner is a crucial component to this defense and will be sorely missed if he can't go. |
LeagueCapper | 41 |
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Agree totally - go for the juglar! |
LeagueCapper | 148 |
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n:day=Thursday SUP: 215-182-3 ATS: 187-202-11 OU: 203-191-6 n:day=Thursday and month=9 SUP: 24-18-0 ATS: 18-23-1 OU: 20-22-0 nday=Thursday and month=10 SUP: 30-48-0 ATS: 26-49-3 OU: 40-36-2 n:day=Thursday and month=11 SUP: 127-88-3 ATS: 106-105-7 OU: 112-104-2 n:day=Thursday and month=12 SUP: 34-28-0 ATS: 37-25-0 OU: 31-29-2 n:day=Thursday and F SUP: 151-81-2 (4.42, 65.1%) ATS: 97-132-5 (-1.32, 42.4%) n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and F SUP: 81-49-1 (4.69, 62.3%) ATS: 53-75-3 (-0.95, 41.4%) n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and F and month<=10 ATS: 13-35-0 (-3.24, 27.1%) n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and F and month>=11 ATS: 40-40 n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and D SUP: 33-57-1 (-3.30) ATS: 52-34-5 (1.65, 60.5%) n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and D and month>=11 ATS: 34-19-2 (2.60, 64.2%) n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and D and line>7 ATS: 10-4-0 (3.36) n:day=Thursday and n:DIV and D and line>10 SUP: 0-6-0 (-7.67) ATS: 5-1-0 (4.58, 83.3%) n:day=Thursday and p:margin<=-10 ATS: 53-37-1 (1.92, 58.9%) |
BallingLikeNE | 14 |
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I wouldn't say Atlanta is a public team but they are power rated about 1.0 to 1.5 better than Carolina on a neutral field so the opening line seems to be okay with Panther's sporting the home field advantage. Maybe the move is a public reaction to the KB trade, but maybe it's a syndicate move where the play ATLANTA on the money line and the come back on CAROLINA on the money line and scalp the game when the spread moves and guarantee a small profit. It happens! If the line hits 3.0 on either side it's an automatic go for the dog bettors, whatever side, but it will never get there - that's for sure!
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JackieTreehorn1 | 7 |
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I like the PACK in this situation and I think Hundley will look better after a week of preparation. Saints are a dome team that runs a precision offense and not so sure if a late October game works best for these kinds of teams. This line adjustment feels like it's about a FG too much and hard to figure out how the SAINTS can be a six point favorite on the ROAD. It's I.P.T (injured player theory) as most teams rally in their first game after losing a star player.
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LeagueCapper | 40 |
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I really think Denver is the right side this weekend. I think it's really hard to judge the psyche of the Forty-Niners right now. I would have thought that last week down 17-0 after two consecutive overtime losses on the road would have been a spot to throw in the towel, the didn't and ended up clawing back in to the game and getting the cover. I'm leaning JAGS and not sure what you'll get from the up and down Ravens with MINNY off of a big win versus PACK.
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LeagueCapper | 47 |
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I thought both the Patriots and the Buccaneers put in pretty shoddy efforts tonight. If you cashed on the Patriots tonight, don't get fooled into thinking they are back on track, but then like you said with the extra rest and the JETS on deck ...!
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LeagueCapper | 32 |
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Quote Originally Posted by HarDix: Always a bad idea to wager a game so far in advance. LeagueCapper you are an amazing capper, and I have huge respect for you. This should be a learning lesson though. Wait it out, see lineups, bet right before the game. Best of luck brother. What are you talking about? If you are betting favorites it's almost always a good idea to bet into the lines early in the week, It's common knowledge that closing lines are, for the most part, a lot sharper than opening lines. |
LeagueCapper | 52 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper: Not into totals much either, but I expect the Cowboys to move the ball easier than they have in the past so i'd lean over if I had to Speaking about the MNF - TNF angle this trend is in play twice this week (SFR-ARZ, LAR-DAL) and is one more reason to like the DAL-LAR over. op:day=Monday and p:day=Thursday and NB and o:NB OU: 23-5-2 (8.73) For those unfamiliar with the coding: Opponents play on MNF with no bye versus an opponent who plays on TNF with no bye. |
LeagueCapper | 52 |
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Dolphins, Eagles, Ravens, Jags are all in very difficult scheduling spots this week end.
Teams playing at home off of two consecutive home losses against an opponent who is on the road for the third time in four games are ATS 5-1. I know 5-1, not much meat on the bone, but the cover margin is a whopping 15.92 which leads me to think this is a good spot for LAC. The only thing that makes me squeamish is trying to get a handle on the franchises trajectory, but so far the play calling and game management leave a lot to be desired. p:HL and pp:HL and H and NB and oS(A, N=3)=2 and o:NB and op:DIV ATS: 5-1-0 (15.92) I'm hearing a lot of buzz about the Giants and have uncovered some tech trends and was wondering what's your take on this game. |
LeagueCapper | 57 |
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LEAGUE CAPPER:
Interesting play on SDG. Over the last 9 games the Packers have been absolutely fantastic in the first half of games outscoring their opponents 237-57. If I was playing this game, and I just might, I'd leave a little powder dry for a second half or fourth quarter bet on the Chargers if they are trailing large. It seems the Pack with big leads at home play a bit more conservatively in the second half. Stevie Johnson is out for SDG - ouch! What makes me nervous is SDG's decimated OL vs a Pack defense that leads the lead in sack percentage and has 16 sacks in the last three games. McCoy is a good bet in non-divisional games going 15-10-1 versus the numbers and ATS 7-3 out of conference as most wiseguys chalk this up to teams lack of familiarity with McCoys creative offensive schemes. I guess we will see a lot screens, dump-offs, and short passes to running backs to negate the problems up front. I think you are on the right side value wise, but not sure if it chalks up as a best bet. Good luck!!
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LeagueCapper | 57 |
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Note: Fisher after week 4 as a DOG
ATS: 60-41 |
LeagueCapper | 68 |
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I agree with your comments on the STL-SEA game but a bit reticent because of HAWKS OL and I'm looking to play against HAWKS this year. Fisher always given kudos for his record as a dog, but I've noted he is more productive in this role later in season as he is only ATS 17-21 in the first quarter of the season throughout his career.
team=Rams and D and game number<5 and season>=2012 ATS: 4-6 (-2.95) team=Titans and D and game number<5 and 1994<=season<=2010 ATS: 13-15 (-1.25) Thanks for posting up and looking forward to reading your stuff through out the season.
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LeagueCapper | 68 |
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Cut'n and pasting - just saw this on another site and thought I'd pass it along. No opinion, either way, on this bet. GOOD LUCK
The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons
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LeagueCapper | 37 |
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