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how are you going to flip flop with the words "BIG TIME" next to your prediction? Just shows you are desperate to do something big and you are leaning navy... its funny.
Anyway, Navy has won like 10 in a row and is the better team. Just comes down to how much they will win by... I say 6-10 but that doesn't help.... GL |
Covers | 49 |
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Quote Originally Posted by juniorafe13: Also as far as fantasy football..what 3 rb to play this weekend chris johnson, ellis green, matt forte, or doug martin? Big game against first place Fantasy Football is my bread n butter. Unfortunately you will need some miracles to beat a top team this week, especially if you are not in a ppr league. CJ is a must start in that group but vs the bears you really need him to bust a 60+ yarder for a score. He won't get 100 yards rushing the hard way vs. the bears. Titans will use CJ in a lot of ways trying to alleviate pass rush pressure. His touches and big play ability make him a must start despite the matchup. Forte is your best start but isn't getting into th eendzone much this year due to Bush, Marshall and even Kellen Davis being more likely goal line options for the Bears. Martin just had the game of his life but being a rookie on the road will make it difficult for him to repeat. But with Martin being a feature back who should even be getting the goal line carries now, and a threat in the pass game, he is a better start than BJGE. BJGE just sucks. He is a feature back and possibly the most likely to get a TD but the least likely to break 100 yards or get anything from the receiving game. Playing a top team in your league you have to play the guys with the best chance to put up a 20 or better for you. Sit BJGE. |
si1ly | 282 |
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Quote Originally Posted by damonte: Si1ly, You say you're passing on the Pitt/NY game due to the intangibles affecting both teams. Respect your judgement [and all the input you provide, by the way], but I prefer to view this a different way. Have stepped out on Pitt moneyline for this one. In a tossup situation, you take the odds [ +160 in this case]. I understand it may be a more aggressive approach that doesn't suit everyone though. Also, I don't know how the Giants can even thing about concentrating on football following this awful disaster. This versus a Pitt team with a minor travel bump. Finally, I wish the best to all affected by this terrible storm. GL to all. The Giants handle adversity better than most teams. In fact, they seem to thrive in adverse situations. If the Giants had a losing record I would be throwing down a big bet on them in this one. But the situation being what it is, I think Si1ly has it right, the best bet is not bet. Although your reasoning for taking Pitt money line is sound and Pitt certainly needs the win more. On a different note, vegas and the betting public think TB will not be able to overcome traveling cross country to play the inferior raiders. While I do think Denarius Moore has a big fantasy day, I really don't think Oakland can win without getting DMC going. And TB is good vs. the run. Do you guys agree with the betting public that home field advantage and not being affected by Sandy is enough for Oakland to win this game? I've already bet TB, just getting nervous the line is going in the wrong direction.. Also, anyone know why the Detroit line has jumped from -3.5 to -5.5 despite news that Calvin Johnson is going to be playing limited (3rd downs only is the rumor). I know the Jags are not a great team but the line was stable at -3.5 for a few days and seems to have jumped after news that Calvin's injury will seriously limit him this weekend.. Is the world just betting against the East Coast this weekend??? |
si1ly | 282 |
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly: I definitely don't ignore intangible angles in the NFL - I think motivation and intensity has a huge impact on the game. In the Giants/Steelers game I think you can make compelling arguments for why either side will be deflated coming into the game. Pitts travel is definitely tough (I think they're flying), and the Giants domestic issues have thrown a wrench in their prep. Why try and predict which will weigh more? This is a situation where it's better to accept the fact that you don't know enough to make a well-informed wager. I'll be passing on this game. Good Response. As simple as it sounds I think one of the main qualities that separates those that are profitable and those that piss away their pay checks each weekend is the ability to pass on a game they want to play if there are enough unknowns to make the wager a true gamble.. as opposed to a calculated prediction.. That being said, I think I will restrain from playing the Giants and Cowboys despite my gut saying the G-men run away with their game in the 2nd half and the Cowboys pull off the upset win on the road.. I am definitely with you on Denver and TB... |
si1ly | 282 |
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I suppose that is true Numero... I was just thinking that in a game that should be a bloody battle, fatigue could be an issue for the steelers after going through the hassle of traveling hours before kickoff.. But it is a 430pm kickoff.. I still like the Giants, I just figured this travel issue could be the cherry on top.. I see the storm's ripple effect being mental for the G-men and physical for the steelers...
Regarding the Cowboys, just want to correct myself, apparently Demarco is indeed OUT. |
si1ly | 282 |
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I should say they are traveling to NY on game day morning.. not even sure they are flying...
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si1ly | 282 |
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly: In the Steelers @ Giants game in fact, my models suggest that the Giants should be heavy favorites over the Steelers. But wait, Pittsburgh's actually projected to out gain New York by 33 yards! So why the big discrepancy in projected point spread? Well it's expected to take Pittsburgh 19 yards to score a point, while only 11 for the Giants. Whether it will play out like this in the game is a whole different story. But I'm not likely to risk money on a favorite banking on the fact that their offense has to be almost twice as efficient to cover the spread. When you put it that way it almost seems like a stupid bet - despite the mathematically perceived line value. Is your head spinning yet? Si1ly, I know you are always looking to take advantage of statistical mismatches, and apparently are very good at doing so, but I am finding it hard to ignore that the Steelers are flying into NY on Sunday morning due to their inability to find a functioning hotel.. Don't you think the Steelers traveling on game day, albeit a short travel relatively, will give the giants an added advantage? Do you ignore things like this completely? Also, I was already looking for the cowboys to upset the falcons this week and just heard Falcons stud LB weatherspoon is out and Demarco might be back.. Can you please talk me out of burying the Cowboys |
si1ly | 282 |
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