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GL vanzack
if you don't mind, could you get into your thoughts on how you calculate how much value you place on a certain line change- I see u placed 22c value on the half here. How'd you get that? I'm often torn between paying say 7c to sell off 7 or something. What are things you take into consideration? This probably can be a lenghthy topic, but help would be appreciated.
BOL tonight- like SD as well
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vanzack | 47 |
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Thanks for all the replies guy- appreciate it
McAlpine- no doubt Denver was better this year, but regarding a couple points you made: They got to the #2 seed for a reason, and it wasn't mile-high home court advantage. (The Jazz probably have the best home court advantage in the NBA, and look where they are.) Denver is 21-20 on the road vs 33-8 at home and Utah is 15-26 on the road vs 33-8 at home. Both team's natural home court advantages' make them look better than they really are which imo creates value in fading them on the road. However, yes both Utah and Denver have amazing HCA and their success is due to it (even utah who may not even be in the playoffs this yr if not for getting to play in SLC). Also, Denver ended the season with the same record as SA and Portland. things go a little differently last couple days of the season, maybe Denver is the 4th seed making them the same team reality, but not in perception They will come out with more energy and focus than they did in game 3, as they know they they can beat NO, and a win tonight gives them a game 4 win possibility at home in front of their very enthusiastic home crowd. The fans and the team are excited as hell to get a chance at the second round of the playoffs, and it showed in their energy in the first two games. Thank you- I actually havn't thought about that- the better team up 2-1 in the playoffs could have extra motivation to win game 4 to possibly close out in front of the fans in game 5. However, I'd say that motvation is equal if not trumped by New Orlean's motivation to make it a series again. Again, yes I watched both games 1 and 2 and Denver as usual was playing with a lot of energy. But I think their home/away record reflects a lot of that same energy cannot be expected on the road- I could be wrong though of course Completely agree that New Orleans is overrelying on CP3 as he is the team- both the heart of the team and the best player which usually doesn't happen. I think it could hurt them, but I wouldn't say in this game quite yet. If fatigue is to show on cp3 I think it would be on the road Thanks for ideas and it does give me more to think about. However, until Denver proves to me that they can win good games on the road, I can't back them and their inflated lines. on a side note- the over refs on this game are insane and one that I cannot deny. The line adjusted slightly, but not enough imo yet. I will look to play the over as a slight hedge.
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Grinder3 | 39 |
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Thanks for all the replies guy- appreciate it
McAlpine- no doubt Denver was better this year, but regarding a couple points you made: They got to the #2 seed for a reason, and it wasn't mile-high home court advantage. (The Jazz probably have the best home court advantage in the NBA, and look where they are.) Denver is 21-20 on the road vs 33-8 at home and Utah is 15-26 on the road vs 33-8 at home. Both team's natural home court advantages' make them look better than they really are which imo creates value in fading them on the road. However, yes both Utah and Denver have amazing HCA and their success is due to it (even utah who may not even be in the playoffs this yr if not for getting to play in SLC). Also, Denver ended the season with the same record as SA and Portland. things go a little differently last couple days of the season, maybe Denver is the 4th seed making them the same team reality, but not in perception They will come out with more energy and focus than they did in game 3, as they know they they can beat NO, and a win tonight gives them a game 4 win possibility at home in front of their very enthusiastic home crowd. The fans and the team are excited as hell to get a chance at the second round of the playoffs, and it showed in their energy in the first two games. Thank you- I actually havn't thought about that- the better team up 2-1 in the playoffs could have extra motivation to win game 4 to possibly close out in front of the fans in game 5. However, I'd say that motvation is equal if not trumped by New Orlean's motivation to make it a series again. Again, yes I watched both games 1 and 2 and Denver as usual was playing with a lot of energy. But I think their home/away record reflects a lot of that same energy cannot be expected on the road- I could be wrong though of course Completely agree that New Orleans is overrelying on CP3 as he is the team- both the heart of the team and the best player which usually doesn't happen. I think it could hurt them, but I wouldn't say in this game quite yet. If fatigue is to show on cp3 I think it would be on the road Thanks for ideas and it does give me more to think about. However, until Denver proves to me that they can win good games on the road, I can't back them and their inflated lines. on a side note- the over refs on this game are insane and one that I cannot deny. The line adjusted slightly, but not enough imo yet. I will look to play the over as a slight hedge.
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Grinder3 | 39 |
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It does not seem to be a compelling argument to say the reason for your bet is the size mismatch ronnie brewer will have on say jarret Jack. Jack is a tough as nails defender, with Granger out- probably their toughest player on the team. Also, do not consider size problems to be too difficult for PGs. I do not think we'll see enough Deron iso postups to be a problem.
I completely agree with you that the mismatches are not pretty. One problem for Indiana is their inability to defend big men that can knock down an outside shot as well as bruisers. Introducing Okur and Boozer. Last game, Okur went off for 43 on them as he was open for 3 all game... When did you start capping on individual mismatches though? I honeslty do not mean offense, but I usually look forward to your threads to discuss the mindset of teams. Most successful cappers of the NBA will agree that spread covers have the most to do with a team's motivation. This is why we always see threads here like "f*ck so and so player/team. Decided not to show up- you can't cap that... blah blah... how can ___-(insert inferior defender) guard ___ (insert typical road chalk uninterested millionaire name). again, I only responding because I highly respect you and your capping, and am surprised by this bet. Then again, you likely know what you're doing
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ValueforRent | 76 |
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eh I respect your thoughts, so I'll respond with my thoughts. I have Indiana and 1st H Indiana for huge bets for me- 1st H a little bit bigger
where to start.. we have Indiana- a 19-11 home team vs a 12-17 road team Jazz. Indiana has had their share of big home wins this yr: some victims include: Boston, Orlando, Lakers, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Denver, (and a 2 pt loss to New Orleans). They have been SOO succesful this yr as home dogs, right now at: 10-2 ATS this yr as home dogs (one loss was an OT loss vs LAC when the whole team had the flu, and the other being a 10 pt loss to phoenix on Nevember 5) Now, a little look into Utah's win streak: 8 home games, 3 road games the 3 road games: @ Minnesota (who may be the worst team in the league now), @ GS (revenge game where GS benched its studs), and @ Toronto (this is a special game which I'll get into later- pretty much a huge game for Utah) Now the home wins were definitely nice against big name teams, so I won't (although I definitely can) make arguments to discredit these home wins. I will say though that Utah has one of the, if not the greatest home court advantages in the league, both altitude and fans) now this specific spot: Last game Utah needed to prove that the win streak was a product of schedule and home games. It was a big game for them to prove that they can get it done on the road as well and many players and sloan were quoted in saying that they needed to prove to themselves and others that it was a big game. Now they accomplished that. I think its time for the old Utah to come back out on the road. Less determined than their last game. They may lookahead/preserve energy to the bigger name opponent in Atlanta. Indiana is VERY alive in the playoffs race, 1.5 games back now. Gun to head, I'd bet that Indiana cares more about this game than does Utah (which is what I figured you capped mroe on- motivation.) This is Indiana's only home game in 6 games and NEED all the home games they can get as they know they've proven they can beat any team in indiana. I normally would worry about a team on the road, come home for 1 game, then back on the road. However, they've had 2 days rest before this game, and will have 2 days of rest after- plenty of time to offset the normal 'coming home' hangovers. I'd imagine Indiana plays heart out all game as they're more rested and know they'll have time to rest the next 2 days. Utah doesn't have this luxury. I played Indiana 1st H because On the road in 1st H's Utah gets outscored by 2.2 this season, while Indiana at home outscores their opponent by 4.4 per half. Why should this game be any different? Utah has been starting ridiculously badly lately and have been tearing back in the 4th Qtr. After doing it so many times, they gotta be cocky enough to believe they can cakewalk thru the 1st H and just steal it in the 4th. I honeslty can go on more, (and have in another forum) but overall I agree the matchups are horrible, but you of all people should knwo that capping this league has little to do with matchups. Good health on this one (btw sorry for any typos if I have any- didnt reread)
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ValueforRent | 76 |
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good health on this one as I'm on Milwaukee.
This game interrupts a homestand for NJ as they head right back home to revenge Boston. Don't forget that Harris and Carter were benched 2nd H vs Boston as the Cs embarassed them twice in a week. Gotta think both harris and carter have wednesday's game circled big time, and considering that those 2 are pretty much Jersey's entire offense, I can see a huge lookahead for them. Gotta think they'd resevre some energy for 2m. Meanwhile, it could be argued that Milwaukee will lookahead to cleveland 2m after bron sportscentered them, but gotta think they're realistic enough to know they can't win at Cleveland while Jersey very well can beat Boston at home with KG
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andarmac99 | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sf_capper: What you think of Denver? Home after ending their road trip somewhat dissapointedly off 2 losses and take on the champs. Boston on a b2b in mile high off proving to the world that they are still the champs. Guessing they make Denver medium chalk, but line is waiting for Nene and Kmart status's. WHat you think? wow nm on prediction of denver as chalk. how is denver +2 at home in a tougher arena while Phoenix without amare is -2...
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andarmac99 | 27 |
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What you think of Denver? Home after ending their road trip somewhat dissapointedly off 2 losses and take on the champs. Boston on a b2b in mile high off proving to the world that they are still the champs. Guessing they make Denver medium chalk, but line is waiting for Nene and Kmart status's. WHat you think?
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andarmac99 | 27 |
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GL man. we really think alike and I always find myself on the same side as you. Hopefully its a good thing tonight as well
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andarmac99 | 27 |
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also, how will tennessee get down field past the Minny D. I mean currently Tennesse's D numbers are pretty (although Houston definitely shouldve put up way more points last game), but theyve had Jax, Houston, and Cinci. Minnys D has met and responded to the challenges of Indi, GB, and Carolina... Now with Jackson outta there, Minny's offense should be able to get some goin
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Slingzz | 45 |
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What are you waiting for to pull the trigger? steady at 7.5 right now... I recommend taking it now as
best case: you wait and get umm 8.5? worst case: you wait and get stuck with +7 with heavy juice I say 7.5 is fine
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Slingzz | 45 |
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Care to share insight into Houston play? What's your felings regarding their disaster/bye week?
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vanzack | 48 |
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In this case though, I also have a handicapping edge on Houston, so I would bet them at +3
what do you mean?
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vanzack | 48 |
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nice week last week. Besides the obvious 'New Orleans has no defense, Denver puttin up 60 per game' why denver?
Denver is off the emotionally crazy win over SD and are sandwiched this week b/w divisional game last week and next week gainst KC
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andarmac99 | 26 |
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GL andarmac. Really respect your plays and analysis
so far I'm on Carolina, Tennessee, and St Louis with you. Likely to add Philly- with less of a line. Only against you on Minny, but I also feel weary holding Indi Do you flat bet at -110 juice? if so, how do you distribute b/w ML and line? Thanks and BOL/ good health with Minny
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andarmac99 | 13 |
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24-21 Cowboys
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jlt9889 | 224 |
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bored student this summer. might as well try to learn the stock market. any1 know a good book for me to learn from? I know pretty much nothing about the market, so something that'll teach beginners would be preferred. any suggestions?
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sf_capper | 4 |
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bored student this summer. might as well try to learn the stock market. any1 know a good book for me to learn from? I know pretty much nothing about the market, so something that'll teach beginners would be preferred. any suggestions?
thanks |
sf_capper | 1 |
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thanks for the quick responses
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sf_capper | 5 |
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good luck man. I liked NO, and still do, but would prefer to have my all-star in there.
Don't like LA here, but maybe we can hit the middle
also, no play on seattle/denver, but can't it be argued that seattle have revenge against... the whole league?
BOL either way man. you're one of the few posters that I read here
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andarmac99 | 7 |
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