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Man, I hit the other 6 selections released on the radio that day & ultimately advanced to the contest's semifinals. That Under was a stinker for sure, but I'll take 6 out of 7 any day.
Thanks for listening, Paul |
UHQB | 5 |
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in Vegas for season wins? If so, I would appreciate if you would post it. They posted about 35 teams earlier this week. Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 1 |
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Guys: Thanks for the info! Paul |
pstone | 7 |
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Anybody know of a source or site that allows bettors to know who's behind the plate in series openers? Thanks, Paul |
pstone | 7 |
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A noon start will produce an average lower temperature than a 3:30 p.m. start there, won't it? Paul |
Sabanade | 16 |
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Just FYI, but a lot of respected bettors put a fairly good percentage of their bankroll into action when the Golden Nugget unveiled their GOY numbers on Friday, June 7 on about 250 games. Certainly, there is the risk of some attrition personnel-wise, but there is really no advantage one way or another. So it is a variable, but just as likely to go your way as against. Good luck, Paul |
2dawgnation2 | 29 |
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I made Auburn -11.5. On Sunday, the M in Las Vegas had Auburn -14. On Thursday, the number was down to 12.5. The M is taking 3 dimes on their openers, so the movement here is not being generated by some square living in their mom's basement. The M's are the first numbers on the market that are meriting any respect from the betting market in Vegas. So long story short, the sharps like the other side, but, the beauty is, the sharps aren't always right... Good luck, Paul |
2dawgnation2 | 29 |
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As some of you may be aware, Steve Fezzik has several imposters using his name without consent. I spoke with him this morning to be certain, and the website referenced in this post is indeed one of those phonies. Again, this website has no affiliation or connection to the Steve Fezzik who won back-to-back Hilton SuperContests. Buyer beware... Good luck, Paul |
M7hg | 6 |
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Just a general rule of thumb, there is no value making plays on anyone to win the Heisman. The book's take percentage is as high as it gets in these kinds of props. Sure, somebody's going to win the Heisman and some bettors are going to cash tickets, but the market is a totally square one. Good luck, Paul |
mtp104 | 7 |
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TD21: Thanks for posting the updates! Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 16 |
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TD21: Thanks for posting the updates! Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 16 |
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FWIW, I played Ohio +17.5; La-Lafayette +11.5; and Washington State +14. Looked hard at Northern Illinois +5, but passed for now. Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 16 |
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As of mid-Sunday afternoon, these were the numbers: 134 South Carolina -12 136 Minnesota -16 137 Tulsa -2.5 140 UCF -26 142 Utah -4 143 Mississippi -1 146 Fresno -8 147 Southern Cal -22 150 Michigan State -24.5 152 Miami (Fla) -31.5 153 Texas Tech -1.5 156 Wisconsin -42.5 158 Michigan -27.5 160 Ohio State -35 162 NC State -10.5 164 Maryland -15.5 166 Iowa -5 168 Notre Dame -24.5 169 BYU -4.5 171 Alabama -18 174 Troy -5 176 Cincy -12 177 Kentucky -2.5 180 Marshall -13.5 182 Oklahoma State -11 184 Oklahoma -24 186 Southern Miss -10 188 Texas -44 190 Texas A&M -29 192 Florida -21.5 194 Arkansas -11.5 196 Auburn -14 198 North Texas -15 199 Penn State -5.5 202 Nebraska -26 204 New Mexico -4.5 206 Clemson Pk 207 LSU -4.5 210 Washington -3 212 UCLA -16 213 Northwestern -7.5 216 Louisville -17.5 217 Colorado -1.5 219 Florida State -12.5 Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 16 |
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on, "Will an SEC team win the national title?' As of yesterday, the line was -110 both ways. I believe their limit is only a nickel, but still an interesting prop. Any thoughts? Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 2 |
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Not to beat a dead horse, but let me be clear if I haven't so far. My power ratings become less and less important as the season progresses. Again, everybody's are pretty much the same after a percentage of the schedule has been played and overall performance established. My PRs, however, are a huge advantage in the opening portion of the CFB season because of all the hard work I put it. Quite frankly, my numbers are going to be better than the linemaker's at the start of the season. Good luck, Paul
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pstone | 31 |
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Another nugget on power ratings. Not to defame the esteemed Mr. Steele, but I just don't buy the nine sets of power ratings. I know it's often referenced in his publication _ which is more valuable than all the others combined for handicapping purposes _ that one set of PRs has Team A going 12-0, but another 8-4 and so on. I don't know what the purpose is, but power ratings are like DNA in my opinion. Power ratings are a subjective number assigned to a team subjectively created by an individual. Everybody's basically got one. Good luck, Paul P.S. _ By the way, Steele's magazine has dramatically reshaped many reputable cappers' preseason preparation with all the pertinent information. |
pstone | 31 |
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Guys: Totally agree that fundamental handicapping with a focus on personnel matchups is critical to long-term success. Of course, we always remember the good outcomes, but I recall in 2006 when Cal traveled to Tennessee in much-anticipated season opener in Knoxville. The Vols got in front early, it was never really a game and they coasted, 35-18. By halftime of this game, I am licking my chops knowing that Cal is hosting Minnesota in Week Two in Berkley. The reason: The Gophers graduated their entire defensive front; the new starters basically haven't played at all; and now they're going to have to face an angry Cal squad; off a butt whupping; and giving them ample doses of Marshawn Lynch. I made the line Cal -10, hoping it might open at 9.5. When the openers roll off the press Sunday afternoon, Cal is only favored by 7. I went "all in" on the Golden Bears to put it in a nutshell. Got as much 7 as I could and then added more at 7.5 and 8. Long story short, Lynch racks up more than 250 total yards and Cal smashes Minnesota, 42-17. I wish they were all this easy. In any event, this was "the perfect storm" of combining superior power ratings; situational handicapping; and assessing personnel matchups to post an easy winner. I never said power ratings are the cure all and end all and understand a person can be quite successful and not use them in any shape, form or fashion. Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 31 |
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Mega: I'm a low key, unassuming guy, but like I told a fellow capper recently about betting the GOY openers at the Golden Nugget in early June, "There were about 16 other guys there. Tony Miller indicated the book has won on these games the last couple of years. So when I looked around at those other 16, I better be smarter than at least 10 of 'em or I'm in the wrong room." And the guys betting the openers are "professionals," guys with a strong opinion, not tourists from Cleveland looking to throw down a few bucks on the Bucks. As for my power ratings, with history as my guide, I know my numbers are better than the linemaker's during the first four or five weeks. In a nutshell, I'm going to outwork and know more about the involved teams than he does.It doesn't happen overnight. It happens on days like yesterday when my wife was out of town and I stayed indoors from about 6 a.m.-to-6 p.m. Power rankings are part of my process, but, again, not the end all. Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 31 |
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Guys: I had a poster at another forum also question what value my "hypotheticals" have and I'll post my response with some minor changes. Many handicappers develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season. It is important to weigh what you think about teams against others' perceptions. At this point in my preseason preparation, it is much more important for me to be able to put my finger on the public's collective "pulse" relating to some individual teams. It doesn't aid my process any to know whether this or that poster likes Oklahoma State -10.5 over Mississippi State at Reliant on opening weekend. Again, I posed scenarios involving Louisville and Ohio State because of my belief that the public (and I believe the people posting here are generally more sophisicated than the composite bettor) would be giving these teams too much. My belief was validated. Hopefully, some people find some value in my postings and food for thought. If not, I'll retire back to my rock. Thanks for responding and good luck this season, |
pstone | 21 |
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To use or not to use power rankings certainly draws a lot of different opinions. They certainly are time consuming and absolutely just one piece of the handicapping puzzle, but not an end all cure all. By mid-season, everybody's power rankings _ whether it's mine or Sagarin _ will look roughly the same. It's during the first five or so weeks of the season where you see some notable differences. With all due respect, take a look at the preseason Sagarin Rankings and you'll be doing a double take at some of the placements. In a nutshell, his preseason rankings have a large carryover from the previous season in some cases and I believe, most of us would agree, there's not such a thing in CFB from one season to the next. My primary purpose for PRs in the preseason is to make comparisons to others who I believe have knowledge and a strong opinion. If I have Team W at No. 42 and four other trusted types have them between 55 and 80, then I might reconsider. I do lean pretty heavily on my own opinions, but it is wise to do some checks and balances. Just as I did at the Golden Nugget in early June, I am confident I will routinely get the best of the number, betting against some of the first openers. It's a result of a lot of hard work _ too many hours in fact _ part of which is the development and fine tuning of power ratings in my individual case. I once compared being able to know what the number should be on a game to the Supreme Court justice who said, "I don't know how to define pornography, but I know it when I see it." Likewise, I'm not sure if making a number is 60 percent art/40 percent science or whatever combinations there might be, but you have to know what a good number on a game looks like. And know when you see it. Or not. Good luck, Paul |
pstone | 31 |
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