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Had a long writeup and accidentally clicked a link .
RandomBettor - I think a Brad Stevens game plan on 7 days rest can manage the intensive pressure enough to keep the possession total reasonable. I think St. Louis is a different kind of TO producing D. I actually think they are a worse matchup for Baylor. Also, don't want to type it all out again, but I like some of Baylor's in conference stats against VCU today too.
You are right, it will depend on the pace of the game and Butler's turnovers. But I think they can handle the pressure at least enough to take advantage of the other statistical and strategical advantages that they will have in this game to at least cover the 7. Thanks for the kind words everyone. Good luck with whatever you play. |
omygodwin | 21 |
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This analysis was a lot easier to follow on my notes. Wish covers mobile was better. Hope this helps guys! Good luck tomorrow
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omygodwin | 21 |
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Projected kenpom line is VCU -8
Projected pace is 66 VCU has played 12 games in a game that slow 6-6 overall 1-10 ATS As pace decreases, so does VCUs eFG% 17-1 overall with eFG% > 47.7% 5-5 with < 47.7% Butler eFG% on year is 46.1% (76) Butler is 22-2 when having a defensive eFG% < 55% As pace decreases, so does VCUs defensive TO% 1-6 when forcing less than 24% TO Butler struggles when they don't offensive rebound well 8-5 on year when OR% <36% (14-1 >36%) However, Butler is 46th in nation with 36.1 OR%, while VCU is 275th defensively, giving up an OR 34.2% of possessions Butler has 1.8 effective height advantage Butler also plays better when they get to FT line Their FTR has been < 30% in 10 games this year, in which they were 5-5 (17-1 > 30%) Butler is in top 1/3 of country in terms of getting to FT line (38.4% FTR), while VCU is 236th in the nation with a 38.5 defensive FTR Brad Stevens is 30-14 ATS as a dog, 26-11 ATS as a dog on the road Butler +7.5 large |
omygodwin | 21 |
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More value in Utah (+310) and BYU (+400) imo
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dmay | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jefff: Baylor has the worst defense in Div 1A (even surpassing Rice!). WVa better have scored 70.... https://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total&conference=I-A_all&year=2012&sort=1124 i suspect Texas will try and grind it out on WV. RUNRUNRUNRUNRUNRUN and keep Geno and Co. off the field. If WV tries to stack the line, Ash will dink and dunk his way down the field like he has all season. MD help Geno and offense to 24 points. Texas may be able to put a few stops on this offense that crap defenses like Marshall and Baylor couldnt... Agreed that Texas will try to grind the ball which is why I emphasized the importance of our Run D stepping up. With Maryland squeaking by W&M and losing to Connecticut in College Park, I believe WVU was a little unmotivated for the game. I'm kind of happy that they struggled scoring in the second half...kept them grounded and focused. Yes it is somewhat of a rivalry, but along with resting injured Shawne Alston, I think they already had Baylor and the first Big 12 game on their mind. However, Maryland did play a solid game, and their defense is nothing to laugh about (8th in D-1, albeit not an overly tough schedule so far). Overall, I agree with your analysis that Texas will try to pound the ball and extend drives as long as possible. At the same time as keeping Geno and the offense off the field, their goal will be to tire down the defense. However, I am hoping and anticipating the run defense stepping up and the defense as a whole to play better this week. Time will tell though! |
omygodwin | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Lucabratzi: WVU has no desire on defense. Matchups are not the problem it is tackling, desire and technique. Pathetic defense. There is no reason that Texas cannot do the same thing Baylor did. WVU had a difficult time matching scores with a very poruous Baylor defense. It will be much more difficult vs. Texas. WVU was up 21 points and could only muster a seven point victory. So WVU can be stopped. Texas is a different team this year and has superior athletes. There is a reason they are -7. 1. - Difficult time matching scores? WVU matched every single one of Baylor's scores with at least 1 TD with the exception of the score that put them up 21. They punted twice the entire game. I know people can expect a lot from an offense as good as theirs, but you are going to suggest they struggled matching scores when the drive ended in a punt 2/14 times and in a TD 10/14 times (with the 14th drive only coming to an end when WVU took a knee after driving into Baylor territory)?? 2. - I'm not sure if you watched the game, but with the exception of the crazy play that ended the first half, there really wasn't much missed tackling. The DB's just got beat a few times. And speaking of that wild play, if our coaches would have managed it a little better, we would have had a few guys back deep and it never would have happened; which in turn would have turned the game completely around. Like I mentioned, WVU gives up less than 3 yards per carry on the ground, and I'm pretty sure you can't have numbers like that if you have "tackling issues". Here's some quotes from Mack Brown:
So, it sounds like Texas may be the team with tackling issues... 3. - Texas may have a couple of athlete's on defense that are "superior" to WVU, but I wouldn't want anybody in the nation, let alone anybody on Texas, before I would want Geno, Tavon, and Stedman. |
omygodwin | 14 |
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My thoughts:
I'll preface it by saying I'm a WVU grad and a homer, so I will be on WVU. Going to provide some reasons why though. Factor #1 - WVU playing in big/bad/scary Texas with 100,000+ WVU's last 3 "big" "away" games as dogs:
Outtake: Yes I do understand this is their first "road game", but WVU has proven in the past that they can show up and play in hostile environments. Plus, Texas isn't exactly a covering machine when teams with good past road performance come into Austin. Factor #2 - WVU's defense. Yes, we all know that WVU has a horribly ranked defense and gave up 700 yards to Baylor last week. However, I think WVU matches up with Texas's scheme a lot better than they did Baylor's. They are giving up less than 3 yards per carry on the season and Texas will be trying to establish a run game to open up the passing game for Ash. Looking a little further into the stats against Baylor, WVU allowed a not-so-bad completion percentage of 61%, as well as forcing 16 third downs (albeit Baylor converted on 11 of those). Outtake: All-in-all, I do believe this is a much better match-up for WVU's defense. If the Run D/Pass rush can get Texas into a couple of long 3rd down attempts, I think the DB's will step up a little better than they did last week; especially since Texas doesn't have quite the athlete's at WR as Baylor does. There are other factors that I have been considering and looking into, but don't have the time to delve into them for now. One thing I am happy about is Texas squeaking out that win last week on the last second controversial call. I would much rather WVU playing a team coming off a high like that than a team coming off of game that they woulda/coulda/shoulda won if it weren't for a last second fumble. One last thing I'd like to throw out there is the possible "look-ahead" factor for Texas. Yes, I do know that WVU is ranked higher, and yes, I do know that they will be up to the game to try and "welcome WVU to the Big 12". But, it is Oklahoma-Texas. FWIW, I'm on WVU + 7 as well as the ML. |
omygodwin | 14 |
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Let's get a good discussion going on WVU/Texas this weekend. Who do you like? And why?
Look forward to hearing some good insight... |
omygodwin | 14 |
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JFen. Awesome work as always. I'm impressed with your line predictions, both in NCAAF and NCAAB.
Do you have a link to a site or a simple formula that will predict a line for any particular game for NCAAF? Not asking for your method, but just wondered if you had some type of simple version of the formula you use to predict the lines so I can plan ahead better. Thanks in advance and good luck the rest of the season. |
JFen31 | 103 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JFen31: You realize this is the worst Duke team since the 06 squad that got bounced by Eric Maynor and VCU in round 1? |
seanparks | 22 |
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L. O. L.
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seanparks | 22 |
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JFen, I remember you saying that Michigan State was probably going to be your pick to win it all, depending on matchups. Do you still like them with their tough bracket?
Would love to hear your thoughts about matchups and who you think might have easier roads than others... |
JFen31 | 131 |
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Thoughts on UC Irvine / Cal State Fullerton Over tomorrow?
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riccio14 | 70 |
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Pitt line dropped as expected. Adding them into the leans.
Pitt -10 GL all. |
omygodwin | 2 |
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Kansas State -4
Memphis -11 Central Florida / Memphis Under 132 Wyoming -7 Leans go to 25-14. The Memphis game again reminded me of why I hate being on both the side and total in the same game. GL today. |
omygodwin | 2 |
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Good luck JFen.
For tomorrow, I'm liking the under in your Hawks vs. Bonnies matchup. Any thoughts on the total? |
JFen31 | 44 |
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Leans for Leap Day:
UNLV -2 Iowa State / Missouri Over 144.5 Ohio State -6 St. Joseph's / St. Bonaventure Under 133 Mississippi State -1.5 Akron -7 South Florida / Louisville Under 115 Jacksonville State +1.5 Santa Clara / Portland Over 146 Campbell -1.5 Bowling Green -8.5 Mercer -10 Alabama -12 Southern Mississippi -12.5 Belmont -16 Hoping Pitt line drops, thought it would be lower than 11.5. Too many games, obviously not playing them all, but will include them in my record. |
omygodwin | 2 |
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Leans 22-13 on the year. 3-0 yesterday. Leans for today:
Kansas State -4 Memphis -11 Central Florida / Memphis Under 132 Wyoming -7 |
omygodwin | 2 |
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Kansas -10
Baylor -20 Texas Tech / Baylor Under 129.5 Leans now 22-13. |
omygodwin | 2 |
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Posted leans are 19-13. Leans for tomorrow:
Kansas -10 Baylor -20 Texas Tech / Baylor Under 129.5 |
omygodwin | 2 |
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