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Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm: What's the record of this system so far? Or at least from May 1? I see picks but no results or records. GL Depends on what plays you have made - lotta tweaking in this system especially early season due to the small sample size of pitching stats. I have been listing all of the plays and some analysis on which ones I think are borderline in hopes to get some discussion going - Have not really gotten too much insight so I decided to stop wasting time typing up analysis and have just been making the plays on my own.... If anyone wants to fire up discussion and analysis I would be more than happy to engage. |
Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS: ya i did some diggin last nite on reds game i ended up actually buckin the system and taking reds i just think the way they own this astro team no way they lose 2 outta 3 to them, houston had there chance yesterday. i didnt take detroit either i had this game to close for comfort i actually cranked the mets and reds, and made a small play on angels system wise im going to try mariners tonite, may try atl/milw under ,but tonite i really like brew crew w/shaun marcum ,i also like ian kennedy at home small number,and of course our system play w m's Yea HOU was prolly a mistake, I liked the number though - thought it would be a closer game on getaway day. Took Detroit - Yanks a bit banged up today, no Jeter, Cano and eh....I too had a small play on LAA - however looking at it I think they qualify as a system play - depending on the book and where the number opened. Kicking myself so hard for not capping the Mets' harder (their my team) Glanced at it and saw no value @even money with big Pelf going and Sanchez for SF. Was busy this morning and didn't look into it until after the game started - SF already with the series clinched and ending their East coast road trip heading across the country back home after the game to take on COL a team in their division. Mets trying not to get swept at home. Pretty much a no brainer to fire on the Metsies and I think there was a TON of value playing them -1 for a plus number. Ah well good ole Monday QB..... Played the M's as well as the ATL/MIL total - looking good so far. Also have a small play on MIL. Small play on CLE as well which worked out. I feel this system is heating up...excited for May/June. |
Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS: thursday sagarin toronto ??? if thry open+149 or lower is a play tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play astros+135 mariners+106 atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late BURG - Agree with you on TOR - Disagree on HOU - i think there is value in their price against a pitcher coming off the DL. Haven't capped the late games yet, but hey we finally hit a total last night! lets keep it goin! |
Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by odieo: Twinkies definitely on the border. Yanks -102 in my book, but probably still a good bet. Missed that under, thx - actually like that play for once - OAK offense has been god awful. No play on ARZ? did you miss that one or are u laying off for other reasons? My bad - yo got Dbacks on there. TOR? |
Maglio | 504 |
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also what about TOR? they are +108 in my book now.
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Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS: wussup bro, unders been shitty this year i keep sayin it but i believe they will turn,seems to me that oddsmakers have caught up w/system undersd makin it hard to benefit from any value,anyway last nite not bad today i have cubbies+107 bucs+120 corriea coming back to s.d nats+140 dbacks+119 yanks+104 oak/texas under 7 twins now +150 but last nite bet jam had +158 so no play for me BOL Twinkies definitely on the border. Yanks -102 in my book, but probably still a good bet. Missed that under, thx - actually like that play for once - OAK offense has been god awful. No play on ARZ? did you miss that one or are u laying off for other reasons? |
Maglio | 504 |
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SYSTEM PLAYS FOR 5/4:
MIN* CHC PIT* WASH* ARZ* *Lot of borderline plays today: MIN - They opened in most books just under +150 and have moved to that number since. Perhaps early bettors assume a big game hangover after Liriano's No No last night? Honestly I think that could have been just what the Twins needed to jump start their season after a 6 game skid.....Morale in the clubhouse will be at an all time high. The main reason I think this is a borderline play is John Danks sits at #29 in the ratings - close enough for discussion. Despite pitching pretty decent thus far the White Sox have failed to back up Mr. Danks with a W in all of his 6 starts. Gonna fire on the Twinkies. PIT - Clayton Richard #31 the cause for discussion. He has pitched well in his last 2 starts and has gotten no run support so unfortunately has had to take a couple L's....Correia coming off his best start of the year @ COL no easy place to pitch - Tough decision here, but I think this will be a close enough game to warrant a play on the plus side. WASH - This is a very tricky one - Worley pitched great against the Mutts, however we see this a lot in baseball when an unknown comes in and is lights out for his first few starts until hitters get some tape on him. Normally I would say throw this play out, but on the other side the Nats have Marquis pitching who has been great as of late and worked his way up to #18 in the ratings. At +135 I don't see how we can lay off a top 20 pitcher on the Dog side vs. a rook who could get shelled in any of his upcoming starts. The Phillies offense is somewhat of an X-factor here, but I feel they are way too streaky to not fire on this one. ARZ - Chacin being #26 in ratings warrants a discussion here. He hasn't done anything mind blowing though - I think i'll take the home dog here. |
Maglio | 504 |
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RESULTS for 5/3"
SF FLA PITT CHC CLE LAA/BOS U7 LAA/BOS sic back door under - Sox ran it up against the Angels bullpen - guess my analysis for that Over was way off! lol...sometimes u get lucky....just goes to show you I think we want to be careful betting Unders in parks like fenway and on teams with such crazy good lineups like the Sox - they can explode on a bullpen like last night Also I think another strategy to betting these unders may be to hedge with the 5inn line - that way a bullpen can hurt you - for example last night you would have broken even(or lost the VIG) if you had played equal bets on the 5inn line and 9inn total. |
Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS: unlike yesterday todays sagarin plays pretty clearcut read and weep giants/marlins/pirates/cubs/bos/laa u7/clevland BOL those are the exact plays I have BURG - you are right very clear cut today. OFFICIAL SYSTEM PLAYS for 5/3: SF FLA PITT CHC LAA/BOS U7* **: LAA/BOS U7 Haren vs. Lester : I absolutely HATE this play and here's why - Yes Haren and Lester both rated in top 20 in Sagarin ratings, but these two teams just played a series in LA a week ago. This pitching matchup was had on the 22nd and they pushed the 7 O/U as BOS won 4-3. Both starting pitchers had very good starts so my theory is that both pitchers will approach each lineup the same way they did so effectively a week ago. Major league hitters are really good at what they do. The last time they faced these pitchers is still fresh in their minds and they WILL make the necessary adjustments. Especially in a park like Fenway where fly balls to left that are often an easy out in most parks turn into doubles off the monster - I would be really wary of playing this under. In fact I am probably going to fire a non system bet on the over. JMHO though...as Burg said the totals have been terrible thus far for this system...perhaps the linemakers have caught on and adjusted accordingly. lotta 6/6.5 totals for these marquee pitching matchups. Also, LAA @ +140 with Dan Haren on the hill is juuuuicy much like the Yanks at +125 last night. Although not a system play may want to consider firing a value bet on them. |
Maglio | 504 |
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Yanks as road dogs is so tasty too....verlander in top 20 though. Would be more confident playing them than MIL though....not gonna fire on either though.
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Maglio | 504 |
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System Plays for 5/2:
MIL* PIT* BAL - Dog pitcher(Guthrie) in top 20...great value IMO. ****: MIL - Jurrjens starting for ATL and he has pitched great thus far. His current numbers put him in the top 20 he just doesn't have enough innings. Gallardo has been pretty bad his last few starts. Look for ATL to jump on him early and give Jurrjens a nice lead to work with. Will be laying off this play for sure. PIT - Harang sitting at #22 in ratings. Actually like this play a lot though. Pirates played well in COL and Harang may very well be coming back to earth after a very hot start. McDonald also put up a solid start in his last outing for the Pirates and @ +140 i think there is a lot of value in this play. |
Maglio | 504 |
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BURG - do you have results since '03 u'd like to share?
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Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS: according to my stats todays sagarin plays atl/stl under7.5 nats astros padres marlins red sox orioles jays a's odieo you seem to be skipping several plays ,i guess its due to several pitchers that are usually in top 20 are not ,but be careful cherry pickin system plays,although i agree you have to make adjustments, ive been using this system since 03, the first month usually sucks, so far this year i dont have exact numbers but totals have been losers big time especially on the unders of 6.5/6 anyway good luck buddy
Had to do it early this morning b4 golf only did the early games, but Red Sox a play? they're not even a dog in my book. Plus they are going up against King Felix who is now #13 in ratings and Mariners on a 5 game win streak! Not sure how you came to that one as a play....did u mean mariners? Also - why no CHC? they opened under 150 - match all other criteria. they should be a play. I think cherry picking these plays is essential to getting an even greater edge. If you look back I have been on the right end more often than not. Great example was TOR yesterday. Drabek was obviously going to get slammed....and he did. Should have been more runs but the Yanks left the bases loaded with 1 out after they pulled Drabek and the pen shut them down, but they still got the win. I think you're in for some hurt with this system if you are just blind firing when there really is no reason to. |
Maglio | 504 |
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Also STL/ATL U7.5 Garcia vs. Lowe!
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Maglio | 504 |
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5/1 MAY DAY PLAYS:
TOR HOU WASH* CHC* SD WASH - Matt Cain #25 w/ one bad start @ COL - probably throwing out WASH as a play. Haven't looked at CHC yet....late for a tee time GL to all. |
Maglio | 504 |
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RESULTS FOR 4/30:
STL TOR Cards win it in the 9th! Drabek got slammed by the yanks - no suprise like i said. 1-0 for me, 1-1 for the system! |
Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV: Just out of curiosity, why did you play the Mets? Phily pitcher was called up from the minors. We had no info on him. Suppose you could have thrown them out - mets were hot - it was in the guidelines - it was an official play. |
Maglio | 504 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS: even money is so a dog you guys keep skipping playsalthough you do have to cherry pk plays every now and the although u can get burned, however keeping your plays a small % of bankroll wont hurt you toronto is a play also,and you could consider k.c at even money, but it opened a pk so that play is iffy i will try to contribute to thread for official plays i go st lou d backs blue jays k.c iffy at pk pirates iffy+156 BOL D-backs not a dog today. K.C. negative number at my book. |
Maglio | 504 |
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OFFICIAL SYSTEM PLAYS for 4/30:
STL* TOR* Both plays are Borderline today IMO: STL - Brandon Beachy sits at #23 in the ratings making this a borderline play for me. His last two starts have been on the road and been quality. 12IP 5H 2ER 14K 2BB. His two starts before that were at home and less than stellar: 11.1 IP 14H 9ER 10K 6BB. On the flip side Westbrook is coming off his best start of the year for the Cards and they just put up a ton of runs in HOU- I think we can safely fire here. TOR - Burnett at #30 and has pitched very well. Don't want to sound like a broken record, but its tough to bet against the Bombers at home...I think they put the hurt on Drabek today....gonna pass on this one. An UNOFFICIAL Play that might be worth a look - ARZ/CHC U9 Garza vs. Kennedy #17 and #27 in the ratings. |
Maglio | 504 |
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RESULTS for 4/29:
NYM TOR FLA BAL SD TOR/Yanks under also hit - not an official play though, I played that instead of TOR. Lets keep the plus days comin! |
Maglio | 504 |
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