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nropp11
nropp11
UT Arlington at Saint Mary’s
Scott Cross has gotten away from the zone quite a bit, but the principles are still the same in the event that they want you shooting from as far away from the basket as you can. He’d much rather trot out a bunch of guards on the defensive side of things and hope to clog things up down low and get out in transition. In essence, they don’t allow penetration, hope you pass, pass, pass some more and launch a three. That sort of becomes a problem against a Saint Mary’s offense who has averaged 1.22 points per possession against teams who “allow you to freely shoot three’s.” What I love most about Saint Mary’s is that while their defense isn’t anything special, you aren’t going to beat them with the three. It is essentially the Wisconsin philosophy of, “we’re gonna shoot a ton of three’s and you’re not.” And they excel at it. Somewhat important because all UTA can do is shoot three’s. Take that away from them, and well, where do they score? Not sure. Gaels week to prepare for this one, too.

Vandy at MTSTU
Under Bryce Drew, Vanderbilt has been a big question mark this year. I’ve had the opportunity to tune into a few of their games as I’m interested in a few of their first couple conference games and seeing what they do defensively. What I’ve come away with is that Drew doesn’t really know what he’s doing with this group on the defensive side of things. At most times, he’s often resorted to just throwing people in the lane and clogging things up and hoping teams take shots from the outside. It sounds really stupid, but what I’ve gathered in their “competitive games” this year, that’s how they’ve really gone about things. Interestingly enough, that could actually be a good thing tonight as they head to take on Middle Tennessee State, a team who absolutely loves pounding the ball inside and getting interior touches within their offense. Let’s go back to last year for a minute and the NCAA Tournament. In some of my analysis last year, I pointed out how Michigan State’s biggest defensive weakness was sort of their strength being that they would allow teams to get the ball inside and stop them from scoring but they were atrocious against those teams who filtered the ball back to the outside. MTSTU got all those kickouts for three’s because they got the ball inside and pulled the upset. Then, they ran into a Syracuse team who zoned and clogged up that paint and the offense looked miserable. With a very similar roster this year, not much has changed for the Blue Raiders. They’ve faced one team (OK, maybe two, but Ole Miss zone so bad I can’t call it clogging) in Tennessee State who really aims at clogging things up on the inside and it was a really bad offensive performance at home. By default, I think Drew’s lack of knowing what to do with his roster defensively sort of works as an advantage for Vanderbilt in this one as dumb as that sounds. On the flip side, Kermit Davis’ weird 1-3-1, zone, matchup zone whatever you want to call it is notorious for allowing you three-balls. Murray State got up 33 against it earlier this year. Toledo, not necessarily a team that launches a bunch of three’s got up 53 against it in two games this year. 45% of Vanderbilt’s shots come from the three-point line, which has always been a staple of Drew’s offense, so Vandy’s going to chuck and they’re pretty good at doing just that. I present to you, the list of opponents that MTSTU has faced within the past year who is not only good at hoisting three’s up at a high clip, but making them as well: 

Murray State, 11/33, 81pts, 1.14 PPP
Syracuse, 8/20, 75pts, 1.23 PPP
MSU, 11/24, 81pts, 1.19 PPP
Marshall, 11/31, 90pts, 1.14 PPP
Marshall, 7/24, 74pts, 1.03 PPP
Marshall, 12/36, 82pts, 1.09 PPP

Average: 10/28, 81pts, 1.14 PPP

Not sure what changes tonight. Vandy’s probably going to attempt more than anything you see on the list being that all five guys can shoot from anywhere, and they’re the best shooting team that this MTSTU defense has seen as well from a percentage standpoint. Combine that with the ever-so-weird defense that sort of fits in perfectly here because they’re just trying to clog things up in the middle, and probably a nice spot for Vandy to put up a nice performance tonight. 
 
GL
nropp11
nropp11
Nicholls State at Florida State
Nicholls State has given up 100+ in consecutive roadies but has a week to prepare for the tail end of the three game roady. They’re a really experienced team chock full of guards who can shoot it, but they have one person on the roster who see’s significant time who stands taller than 6’4”, and Florida State’s sort of the tallest team in the country. Have to wonder how the height affects Nicholls State’s ability to launch three’s, and defend, and pass, and rebound.   

Iowa State at Iowa
I don’t have many thoughts on Iowa/Iowa State. Iowa’s defense has been horrendous to the tune of not being able to stop anybody. Jok somehow has found enough energy and been able to carry them enough offensively to keep them competitive. Iowa State hits the road for the first time, with a defense that has been mighty impressive down low, especially for the quality of competition they’ve played this season. Thus, it’s a bit of the same for what this series has given us the past few years. A bunch of outside shooting and high point totals with whichever team getting the hottest or going on that one little run grabbing the upper hand. It’s really, really, really hard to trust Iowa’s defense, though. Iowa team shakes out a lot like Indiana 2014-2015 time frame. Launched three’s, were good at doing so, couldn’t stop anyone defensively, but probably projecting this Iowa team to be worse at this rate because of what they’re doing against terrible, terrible teams.

nropp11
nropp11
Fordham at St. John’s
When you look at St. John’s on the year, it’s easy to see why they’ve been successful, and at the same time, why they’ve dropped some games as well. For the most part, they’ve won the games they probably should have, and dropped the games they probably should have. Outside of the loss to Delaware State, the five-game losing streak was expected, but it’s interesting to note that St. John’s was competitive in those games against the likes of Minnesota, Michigan State, VCU, and Old Dominion. Thus, it’s important to understand why St. John’s ended up losing those games against decent competition, despite being competitive, and understanding that is basically understanding St. John’s this season. The interior defense is outstanding. They throw all this length and athleticism at you on the interior and force your offense elsewhere. However, the lack of depth just isn’t there. By throwing all this length and athleticism at your interior, they have been committing a ton of fouls against teams who looked to get the ball inside. Teams like Minnesota, Michigan State, VCU, and Old Dominion constantly went inside in a competitive game, put St. John’s in some foul trouble, and when that happened, St. John’s went from being competitive to well, ultimately losing the game. In the wins, it simply hasn’t happened. Thus, when you’re looking at the Red Storm this year, any team who is going to look to get the ball inside is probably going to struggle to put up points early, BUT, if they can get the Johnnies into some foul trouble, the sea will eventually open. While I rant on that, it’s probably important to note that Fordham hardly, if ever looks to score inside unless they’re getting an easy bucket in transition off a turnover. Neubauer has always been a coach who has always ran his offense from the perimeter. By always, I mean always. His percentage of his teams shot attempts have come from beyond the three-point line 40% of the time for the past 11 years. It’s no secret where Neubauer’s teams want to score from. He’s always pressed, he’s always thrown out these weird zones that trap defensively, and if he’s not forcing a turnover and getting out in transition, then there is a good chance his team is going to shoot a 3 in the half-court. So, in looking at this game, there is probably two points of emphasis to figure out. First, can St. John’s handle the pressure? This is where it gets iffy. Looks like LoVett isn’t going to give it a go tonight, which leaves St. John’s in a precarious position, no PG against a weird press. Sort of reminds me when Lovett didn’t start in the Delaware State game a week ago against a similar press and similar zone scheme, and the St. John’s starters combined for 12 turnovers. Needless to say, the pressure might be a challenge for St. John’s tonight. But, it’s also pretty important to note that St. John’s hoisted 37 three’s in that game, hitting 12 of them. Mullin’s been adamant that his team can shoot, so getting up another 30 attempts tonight is more than likely – meaning, if, and a big IF, St. John’s can handle the pressure without their PG, it is likely they’re shooting a 3. On the flip side, Mullin’s defense has been uber aggressive with all the length and athleticism they throw at you. With Fordham’s offense absolutely needing to rely on the three-ball, those attempts are going to be tough to come by, and with their unwillingness to go inside within their offense, this is going to be one of those games where St. John’s is likely to have their full complement of length on the inside which is likely going to be the difference. One of these teams gets to play to their strengths tonight (albeit without their PG against a press), while the other team is going to have to use their press to get some additional offense to stay competitive. Really interesting game, especially without Lovett. In the end, Fordham’s lack of working the ball inside and forcing St. John’s to use their bench really forces them to score in transition off those turnovers, so the game just comes down to how well St. John’s can handle the pressure, and even if they don’t handle the pressure well, they’re still getting tons of open looks and have their full complement of players defensively to make things tough for Fordham in the half-court. 

Pacific at Umass
Umass at 5-2 this season is somewhat of a surprise given the fact that they’ve only had one game where their offensive efficiency was above a point per possession (1.03), and that was a game in which Kellogg’s offensive philosophy of launching three’s until you eventually hit some of them against Mississippi’s zone worked out for ¾ of the game before they collapsed late. At Umass, Kellogg’s teams have launched threes at a high clip, despite having a roster chock full of athletic guards who are much better at attacking the rim and getting in the lane. This year, I was a bit skeptical. The roster is a bit of the opposite, and by that, I think it’s a better shooting team than what he’s had in previous years. I had envisioned a team that would score offensively, and struggle to get stops defensively. My visions to this point has been wrong. They have not shot well, and the defense has been what’s carried them. I have no clue on what to think of Pacific under Stoudamire to this point, but this isn’t a spot where I want to get involved. They’re largely rolling out a defense designed to just keep the offense in front of you, and stay in position to get a rebound and work into transition offense. They’re doing a pretty decent job of this to date, but first-year coach travelling across country into what figures to be a highly-paced transition affair, no thanks. Tigers return home back across the country for a Saturday tilt, too, which is just awkward scheduling. Umass is going to chuck three’s and they’re going to start hitting them at some point, I just don’t know when and if they aren’t hitting them tonight, then there is a good chance those long shots lead to easy transition opportunities for Pacific which is exactly what they’re defense is predicated upon. In the end, this result likely comes down to how well Umass shoots from the perimeter, and to date, outside of the Ole Miss zone that a group of third-graders could get up three’s on, Umass has struggled in that department. And a continued struggle in this game is a double-negative because of the opponent and what they want to do, BUT, Pacific off blowing a 20 point lead and all that travel no thanks. Nope. 
ckattar8
ckattar8
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:



This whole entire post is just a plug for nropp by nropp nobody cares

I can speak for myself. And I did not have anything to do with this thread. Hope the guy gets some help.

GL


BigTimeSwimma
BigTimeSwimma
Quote Originally Posted by BigTimeSwimma:

What?? Is someone on drugs to make this like or is half unlv's team out? Sos and ratings show this should be about unlv -1 to pick em. Also long beach state +5 to Pepperdine?? Should be LB -1 to -2

There are a few things that you probably aren't taking into consideration:

1) Wichita sorta played without a PG for a week (possibly the best PG in the country) when they lost all their games. 

2) UNLV has been atrocious when they've traveled East the past few years. Combine that with the fact that they're young, and playing their first true road game, probably not a good thing either.

3) Wichita State has won 34 straight games at home. It's a tough place to play. How tough? Well, they've won 33 of those 34 games by MORE than 8 points. 

Probably not a coincidence that the line is...-7.5? I have no dog in the fight, don't care who wins or loses, but that's probably why you're seeing the line where it is.

GL
CountCrisco
CountCrisco
Kentucky might have been without their PG (probably one of the best PG's in the country), just saying.
CANESFREAK
CANESFREAK
Perhaps Vegas realized that LSU's offense has been atrocious on the road now for a few seasons? This year their offensive production away from home comes in at a whopping 0.88 points per possession, which is roughly rated 348th out of 351 teams in the country. Can also factor in a first true road game for a young team (have realistically one player on the team with experience in that setting) and you have a nice angle to fade. But, you can keep reading your ESPN and YAHOO articles on just how great Simmons and LSU are, but to put it bluntly, you're clickbait for those sites who don't understand the game and other factors, either. 
syracusejoe
syracusejoe
Quote Originally Posted by syracusejoe:

Nropp 2nd half meltdown is coming or northwestern loses by 2 or 3 and everyone is a winner. Also Illinois shot the lights out early.

Tuna melt.
Jeff89
Jeff89
Means nothing? I'd like to think that the distance ratings "might" mean something in a race where these horses haven't run this distance yet in their career.

The last three winners of the Derby have all had a Tomlinson rating of greater than 300.

In 2011, Animal Kingdom had the best Tomlinson rating in the field. He won.

In 2012, Bodemeister and I'll Have Another had the 2nd and 3rd best Tomlinson ratings in the field. They finished 1-2.

Oxbow, Orb, and Palace of Malice were all top 5 last year, and while they didn't really have Derby success (finished first, sixth, and seventh), they made noise on the Triple Crown Trail.

I personally think you're fooling yourself if you don't factor in these numbers in just the slightest bit.
MarloStanfield1
MarloStanfield1
Quote Originally Posted by MarloStanfield1:

They also have saddler, baptists and Kyle Anderson who is one of the better three point shooters in the country. 

Anderson has had a great year...but he's 7/32 (22%) since the suspensions. Makes a difference when Threatt can drive and kick as opposed to Saddler and Usher driving and not having the ability to kick to the open shooter; they would rather score.
MarloStanfield1
MarloStanfield1
I agree, the two players being out at this point in the season is a bit too much for most to comprehend here, however...

Since losing those two players, the only road game they've played came against the worst defense in the CAA (W&M). The other four home games, while impressive, have come against the #6, #7, #8, and #9 offenses in the CAA.

Simply put, the team hasn't really been tested. They have two (sometimes 3) extremely talented guards that can pretty much score on bad defenses and bad offenses at that. It's not like they've been torching the nets; the competition has just been well...bad. The CAA blows.

Towson tonight should be their biggest test of the season. On the road, against revenge, lack interior depth. Benimon did pour in 29 the first meeting, but Towson had to get into an up-and-down contest and come from behind. They couldn't really slow the game and force it into him...he hardly touched the ball late.

GL
yunghov3000
yunghov3000
He can't play until 2nd semester next year.
JFen31
JFen31
I have this weird feeling Nebraska has a chance at the win tonight. Just can't stomach playing it, lol.
SliceBoogie
SliceBoogie
They've been out for a while now.
rryn122
rryn122
Louisville -1
psuships
psuships
I agree.
Eagles987
Eagles987
Quote Originally Posted by mightymic:

Well. where is the great  CMM ??  LOL  he has so many names, all you have to look for in here is the biggest loser and that will be him.  He and his happy pal  (Nropp) are worst basketball pickers in this forum.  only thing they can pick right is there big noses.  ha ha

ha ha
AJK
AJK
Where are you seeing this great "outside shooting" for Drexel?
TRoe15
TRoe15
Penn line a bit high tonight Mr. Hawkeye?
pe17isbutter69
pe17isbutter69
I think most teams would have won their last 14 games when they score 90+ points.
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