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Vegas wants even money on each side of a bet. That is why lines are moved or not moved. If they get 50/50 action on each side of a bet, they win either way. Remember, win or lose we pay the juice, and they get rich. I know it is fun to have this conspiracy mindset about Vegas and line setting, but Vegas is a business, and a very good one, and if they can get 50/50 action, then it is free money with no risk...who would not take that? Also, these figures about "public money" are good to show where the money is going according to covers.com or wagerline.com or whoever...but if you look at the numbers, it is not like this is an accurate representation of the amount of dollars being wagered or even the number of wagers being made throughout the United States or in Vegas or anything at all. All it can offer is a poll of where money is going in a small segment of the population. This can be useful when trying to determine a "public" play, which is usually the wrong side of the play because the "public" tends to overlook many important factors of a game (traveling time, look ahead factor, road game importance, etc) and instead focus on gambling by the transitive property (UT lost to UCLA 3 weeks ago and BYU blanked UCLA last week, so Florida must beat the crap out of UT this weekend), which is just stupid in many cases. SO...all I am saying is that it is not wise reading into the 'public numbers' on this site, or any site (just look at the discrepancy between the sites if you dont believe me) and try to figure out the reason for vegas moving the line. Sometimes you may be right, they are trying to equal out the money, other times you may be wrong. I think that the line movement in this case is an overreaction to UNC's W last week over a terrible Rutgers team and VT's marginal start. They did not expect so much love coming in for UNC, and have tried to adjust the line to get the money more 50/50. (Also, Consider that UNC last week was actually out-gained by Rugetrs 383-378 and had it not been for Rutgers 5 turnovers, the game would have gone much differently.) That said, most of the public money, and most of the public sentiment, is with UNC this week. If we were to take the numbers here and say they influenced line movement, which I promise the combined 1000 bets listed here did not, if anything it would show that Vegas has no faith in UNC and is simply having to adjust the line to compensate for an unreasonable amount of UNC bets coming in. Thats what I think anyways... |
Mr_Covers | 23 |
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Double Digit Home SEC Underdogs have covered the number over 73% during the last 5 years. That is a steady trend to bet. And it always seems impossible when you bet it (See Vandy vs. South Carolina last weekend), but afterwards it seems so easy.
Also, consider the fact that Auburn has LSU on deck next weekend. Other than the obvious in-state rilvary with Alabama, LSU is the only team that stands in the way of Auburn and a SEC West title. State will not sneak up on Auburn and win after they beat them at home last year (as 11 point dogs, as well, interestingly enough); but we arent betting on ML wins here, we are taking points and looking for covers. The post above me has it right about how it should play out...but if it was that easy, then Vegas wouldnt be Vegas. LSU on deck is a big factor + the DD Underdog trend that always hits when you least expect it...I will take the 11 or 12 points and look for something like a 20 10 game.
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Mr_Covers | 17 |
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No, Ms. St. did not fire their coach, Croom actually won SEC coach of the year. Ole Miss fired their coach.
No offense-but if those simple facts are not known, maybe a little more research is needed before picking a game?
Not sure why a play would be based on only the performance of teams in the final week of the season. Especially rilvary games (like the Ms. St & Ole Miss game), the teams are always up for the games and they are usually damn close. You have to factor in Strength of Schedule almost more than anything when capping Bowl games as the teams are from separate conferences. Kevin Smith is a damn good running back, damn good-but if he was playing in the SEC he would just be an above average back. States run D held the #2 and #4 top national rushers to under 100 yards in each game. They held McFadden to 88 yards on 22 carries. If you think Kevin Smith is better than McFadden, then I suppose he could break the 100 mark, but I sure don't think he is. State's team has been built from scratch the past 4 years by Croom based soley around a solid Run Defense. If State can do anything, it is stop the run. Not to mention, this is States first bowl in 7 years and it is in Memphis, which is right down the road from Starkville compared to the drive from C. Fl. All that said, I like State +3--but I like the Under more. State will be able to hold CFl to under 30 points, and State wont score more than 30. State runs the ball with a duel threat back scheme that eats the clock up, and we know that CFl is a run-the-ball team as well. |
Mr_Covers | 159 |
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Anyone else think this is a pretty large development? Wednesday, December 19, 2007 11:11 PM By Ken Gordon and Tim May THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH NEAL C. LAURON | DISPATCH Ohio State starting cornerback Donald Washington and reserve corner Eugene Clifford have been suspended for the national championship game because of a violation of team rules, a source close to the team confirmed tonight. There were no details on the nature of the violation, except that it is not a legal issue. The loss of Washington is significant. The sophomore from Indianapolis has started every game this season and played well, twice being named the team's defensive player of the week. He has 34 tackles, a sack and an interception returned 70 yards for a touchdown against Kent State. In November, while discussing who has stood out on defense, center Jim Cordle called Washington “the most underrated corner in the nation.” His absence means redshirt freshman Chimdi Chekwa likely will start with Malcolm Jenkins at the corners. In the nickel defense, safety Jamario O'Neal now likely will get the nod. Previously, Chekwa has played corner in nickel and Jenkins has shifted to safety. Andre Amos, Nick Patterson and Aaron Gant also could see more playing time. Clifford, a freshman from Cincinnati, has played in four games and has eight tackles. In March, while in high school, Clifford was cited for marijuana possession by Colerain Township police. He paid a $105 fine for the minor misdemeanor. Because he had not enrolled at OSU, Clifford did not fall under the school's drug and alcohol policy. A university spokesman said, though, that because of the infraction, Clifford might be subject to more stringent testing. |
Mr_Covers | 310 |
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Jeff Bower, SMiss coach is on his way out after over 13 straight winning seasons and 10 straight bowl appearances.
Why did SMiss get ride of him?? I have no idea. He was been SMiss football for the past 20 years. He played there and coached there before becoming head coach. He IS S. Miss. I really don't understand why they would force him out...but anyways... All that to say-this program is entering a new era and is in a transitional stage right now. I am sure they players are not happy about the coaching situation and will have a hard time with all of this. Not to mention that Cincy hit a slump mid season, but rebounded nicley to finish it out. They may feel like they blew it this season, but i dont see a situation where they wouldnt cover this number-even if they were not "up" for the game. Lean to Cincy early
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Mr_Covers | 240 |
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Looks like State is getting 3.
Kevin Smith could break the single season rushing record if he hits right around his average. State has a solid run D though and was able to hold arguably the best running back in the nation (Darren McFadden) to only 88 yards on 28 attempts, and didn't allow him to run for a TD. First bowl game for State in 7 years, the fans will make the short trip to Memphis by the thousands. Surprised to see the O/U that high, sure Cent Fl was able to put up big numbers on offense, but that was against less than steller CUSA D's. And State rarely puts up 30+ At first look, lean to the Under-no opinion on side play yet though |
Mr_Covers | 159 |
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