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+1570 is about 6% for one game, if you have a bunch of games with heavy favorites I am sure that you have less of a chance for OT than if there were a lot of -1, -2, -1 1/2 games.
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MrBogey | 13 |
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Added Mayfair 1u -120 beckman |
blairaj | 25 |
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Sportsbook at open
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blairaj | 25 |
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Since everyone is getting along now I will give my thoughts for the week. Much more value in the Reno - the different scoring system has opened up alot more opportunity. Par breaker I believe will tell the story. Looking for agressive players who will shoot for pins, I don't even mind a guy who bogies (-1) as birdies (+3) and eagles (+5) are the way to go. P.Perez 2u -127 over Molder P.Perez 1u -144 over Molder Carballo 2u -145 over Weir Appleby 1u -125 over weekly Gay 1u -105 Cink -pinny Reed .75u over S.Brown Ist round .75u P. Harrington -140 Henry Some players I will be watching for later on whose style fits this system Daly, Romero, Holmes, Gillis, Mulroy Don't see much value in the Bridgestone with such a small tight field. I got some of these plays early so lines have changed. Full Tourney 1u Willet -130 over T.Lewis Jaidee -121 KT Kim Van Pelt -130 Mickelson Ist round .75u Rose -157 Crane |
blairaj | 25 |
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#38 Posted: 7/31/2012 9:37:12 PMLloyd32 = jackass Looks Like I should have kept my mouth shut. Must be some kind of fraternity in here, others not welcome. I made the account 2 minutes before I posted, you don't need an account to read posts. Why would you scare away some one who was giving you free rice bowls that probably took hours to compute. The more information the better, most people on here throw out plays with no reasoning, what good is that. I wonder how they come up with their plays: "this guy is due, or I saw him on TV last week and he looked good". You have to have some kind of system, there is a reason why 90% of people lose long term. Bash all you want - but stop and think how you come up with your plays if you don't know exactly why you are probably a losing player. |
AJLightning | 65 |
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No alias brother - I am trying to help educate. I have been at this for a long time and usually never ever post in forums I figure what good can it do from a selfish point of view. I have seen small markets like golf dry up once too many people started beating the books. When I saw this guy trying to help out and then get bashed I couldn't resist. His analysis is right along the same line that I have used in other sports. Nascar is the same as golf you do a regression on how important qualifying, practice, track and current form are. I started modeling golf just this year. Honestly this biorythm stuff seems like hocus pocus to me. But alot of golf is played between the ears so maybe you are on to something. I don't have access to this type of info so I have never tested it. I noticed that you have support from others in this forum so you must be doing well. Everyone gets to thier plays in a different manner. At the end of the day each of us know where are BR stands. |
AJLightning | 65 |
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Blairaj- How huge is PB this week in the Reno with the Stableford system in place ? I am wondering how far to adjust for this. My modeling usually spits out plays similar to MrBogey and then you, every once in awhile you both throw out a curve ball that is the opposite of me.
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AJLightning | 65 |
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Blairaj - I had to chime in, been following this forum for a few months and appreciate your view point. In my handicapping of sports I go almost strictly by the numbers in some sports I even think its a disavantage to watch, as you learn an inherent bias. You see a player or team on one particular day and thats how you view them. If I went by "gut feel" I would probably be broke, using only the numbers or models, I have been very successful. Disclosure I use tour tips data base for golf to create my numbers. By the way what is PB and BA ? |
AJLightning | 65 |
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