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MR219
MR219

Quote Originally Posted by MR219:

Adding:

10. Pyle - Story over 2.5 rounds (+105). Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units.

Like this one a lot. 

GL

MR219
MR219

Quote Originally Posted by MR219:

Johnny, when I bet Stephens he was -200. Risking 2 to win 1 would give me 3. Bowles was -300. Risking the 3 to win 1 , would give me a total of 2, assuming the both had won. Therefore, I would have had to risk 5 to win 2 under your scenario, rather than risking 2 to win 2. So to answer your question, no I did not lose value by parlaying.

Hmm, good point on the line you got vs. what they ended. 

But don't agree that you risk 5 to win 2.  You have to win both fights in a parlay anyway.  So risking 2 on Stephens and taking what you make on that win isn't really a risk. Either way you are betting 2 units initially and need both to win.  You are simply making a single bet and using what you earn to rebet again.  If you bet them separate you usually end up with more payout.  Or if the first hits you can choose to simply not rebet and cash.  Either way you need both in a parlay to win.  If you bet them both you make more money. 

I think sometimes people get too caught up in parlays.  They really do short you in many cases.

Not trying to derail your thread.  Just seeing if I am not seeing something correctly. 

MR219
MR219

Aren't you losing value on those parlays? 

For instance say 1 unit =100$. 

$200 on Stephens at -170 wins 118.

Couple the initial 200 with 118 you now have 318.

318 on Bowles at -295 wins 108.

Thos both hit you end up with 426 instead of betting 200 to win 200 and ending with 400??

Or are you just not able to play fights during the card and are willing to take the hit in value?

MR219
MR219
What is your take on Dias?  I know he is a young up and comer.  And Brazilian.  But Lentz has been impressive at 145.  Does Dias have enough TDD?
sawman
sawman
Mixed Martial Arts / TUF 17 / View Post
Kelvin will have good value by fight night. Uriah probably wins, but he is defiantly overrated as UFC pumps him up so much.  I bet Kelvin gets to +350 some places.  +325 already on sportsbook.  Just seems like good value.  Uriah has been taken down by less caliber fighters.  Not to say Kelvin can do much if he does get a TD.  But, could be worth a play. 
whipton
whipton
People also overrate Gustafs length.  He does use range well, and is 6'5.  But he is like a T-Rex.....6'5 and 76.5 inch reach.  Mousasi is listed at 6'2 with 76 inch reach.  

I hear people talk about how Gustaf may be the only guy to have the length to deal with Jones.  But as far as arms, he has a stubby reach.  Long legs I guess.
whipton
whipton
I think Gustaf vs. Mousasi is a great fight.  Mousasi is more than comparable with his striking.  When he is on his game, he is a better striker.  

On the ground he is a much more accomplished submission fighter.  Lacks wrestling though.  

All depends what Mousasi shows up.  If motivated Mousasi shows up it will be a hell of a fight.  Both are tough to finish, but these are heavy hitting 205er....5 rounds is always a nail biter in fights like these.  Will be interested to see Mousasi's gas tank.
Hawkbadger
Hawkbadger
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

Who ever he fights he completely takes their strength and negates it,   so GSP should put himself in a position to lose?  I thought the idea was to win, my mistake. 

See, now you are just being a ridiculous fool.

I never said GSP should put himself in danger.  I never said he should brawl with Diaz.  

I simply said to me he isn't that impressive.  I am not a fan of his style of fighting.  Anderson could easily out jab and kick most guys he faces to easy 50-45 dec, but he doesn't.  Bones could take most anyone down and not look to do much damage...or win using his length...and win 50-45 on all card...but he doesn't.  

GSP has a blackbelt in BJJ.  And he spends 25 min at a time dominating fighters he is much better than.  Seems like he could at least attempt a sub.  Or at least try to throw some real GnP.  

I never said GSP should go out there and wing it with no gameplan.  But you want to be a foolish goof and pretend I did.  
sawman
sawman
I think GSP will open -280 to -300.  I think it will get up to -350 to -375.
Hawkbadger
Hawkbadger
Not sure why you are talking about what is impressive or not.  This is a betting forum...and my post was about betting.  Although nice juicy odds on it...it was hard to imagine GSP finishing Nick Diaz plain and simple.  

Not sure why you are going on about what is impressive or not.  I am talking about finishing.  GSP inside the distance was a long shot.  His previous fights and Diaz's career pretty much told us this even if you don't watch the fights.  

You are from Canada.  Of course you will be all up on GSPs nuts.  If we want to talk impressive...it isn't GSP.  Yes he is the better wrestler than most guys, has great cardio and athleticism.  The sad part is he is SOOOO afraid to lose.  So afraid to take any sort of risk.  He has guys in dominant positions for 25 minutes at a time...yet rarely ever looks for subs or much GnP.  He chips away with hammer fists and elbows to fool the ref into thinking he is working.  It is sad when a champion and top P4P fighter isn't willing to take a single risk.  He usually is on top for 25 minutes at a time and doesn't even try to finish.  

He couldn't sub the amazing Dan Hardy after 25 min of controlling.  While Chris Lytle beat Hardy up on the feet and sub'd him within second of it hitting the ground.  

He broke Kos's eye socket in the first round and couldn't finish a blind fighter for 4 more rounds.  Robbie Lawler came in unranked and just finished Kos in teh first round.  

GSP is amazing at doing what he does.  But he lacks any killer instinct.  He is more afraid to lose than anyone else.  Guys like Fedor, Hendo, Wandy, Shogun, Chuck, Randy, Frankie, BJ Penn, Nick Diaz aren't afraid of a L on their record and go out and fight.  That is why they are revered and had plenty of fans even if they lost.
Hawkbadger
Hawkbadger
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

Not saying I think he will stop box y mcshi tface tonight but were either these fights at 155?  And the guy who quit, why was that? How is it not legit when guy wont come out to start final round?

The fights were at 170.  Doesn't mean Serra and BJ weren't way undersized for that division.  It is why BJ Penn has sucked at 170...he is way too small.

BJ Penn is a quitter, and he gave up with his poor conditioning.  That isn't a legit stoppage, if he had any heart he could of made it 1 more round.  

As seen by last night....that was the best I have ever seen Diaz's face look after a "fight".  GSP was easy money by decision.  He is one of the worst finishers in the division....Nick is one of the hardest to finish in the UFC.  If you do the math, it was evident what would happen.  

Hawkbadger
Hawkbadger
He can cut him bad if it is a on top elbow fight.  But the only possible way is a doctor says stop.  

GSP's last 2 "stoppages" were vs. 155ers.  1 of them quit.  The other was stopped due to turtling up and taking unanswered knees to the side.  He hasn't legit stopped anyone since ufc 79 and not one opponent since is harder to stop than Diaz.  And I don't think he has ever stopped a guy due to cuts.  

GSP is a hugger.  Nick won't win but he has too much pride and way too tough to get finished.  
Hawkbadger
Hawkbadger
Quote Originally Posted by Hawkbadger:

Diaz does not have better cardio, dont give me that triathlon talk, gsp has been going 5rds for what seems like 10yrs, diaz has great cardio ima but i could see him getting frustrated and his back and going for something crazy and giving up his back. With those long odds its not like im calling it a lock just a good prob bet. 

He had the amazing grappling specialist that is Dan Hardy in a full armbar and couldn't finish.  I don't care if Diaz had 2 broken arms and GSP had his back...he still wouldn't finish.  
Hawkbadger
Hawkbadger
LOL at GSP finishing anyone.  He couldn't finish the great Dan Hardy.  Nor Jake Shields.  Nor Koscheck.

The only possible way he finishes is a deep cut in which the doctor stops it.  Which could happen, as GSP likes to use happy elbows and Diaz cuts fairly easy.

But GSP has zero chance of legitimately stopping Diaz.  GSP is one of the worst finishers in the division.  Diaz may be the hardest to finish.  

Only time Diaz was ever stopped with a real stoppage was when he was a 19 year old kid.....lol
gsprush
gsprush
Line is only getting better for Weidman.  

Anderson deserves the regular -450 or more here.
gsprush
gsprush
Can't wait to laugh at the goofballs who will call for Weidman value.  And say Weidman has the skills to win.  

Weidman does have a way better chance than GSP does....the GSP odds are ridiculous...And Weidman does have a better chance than most anyone else at MW....but that is why the line opened lower than it ever does.  

Either way Weidman will end up on the ground hurt and confused.
sawman
sawman
I guess I could have picked anyone thread to post this.

But what is with the Sandro love here?  He started out as a huge favorite based on name.  Russian should be favored in my opinion.  But then again I haven't watched any more than 2 fights of his.  Sandro is old.  I never bet  against smaller organization Russians....they are just hungrier.  

Just trying to get some discussion here by anyone.  Haven't thrown and would like to here some things before I do...if I do...
MR219
MR219
Quote Originally Posted by MR219:


I don't expect Struve will eat much of anything in initiating a clinch takedown.  I don't think Lavar Johnson landed anything significant when Struve closed the distance to take him down.

Lavar is strong, but I would say Hunt has better TDD.  Schaub is a decent wrestler but he took Lavar down with such ease.  Hunt has such a low center of gravity that it will be hard I think for Struve to do this.  

I also believe Hunt is a better striker than Barry or Lavar....much better actually.  And although it isn't anything special, I think he has a better ground game/TDD than both as well.
MR219
MR219
Quote Originally Posted by nooob:

Betting heavyweights is always scary. Especially those guys with KO power. That being said, if Struve gets him to the ground, Hunt is done.

Agree with this.  I tend to avoid HWs behind much as I can.  Struve is going to have to clinch and see at least a couple uppercuts firing up at him.  I have Hunt as a Dog in this one.  Who knows what will happen though.

GL 219 I like the rest of your plays.  
MR219
MR219
Quote Originally Posted by MR219:


I just don't see where Hendo has an advantage in this fight.  Machida wins by "Machida"...

Has the advantage in power and chin for sure.  I understand stylistically Machida isn't the best matchup for Hendo as Machida like to play a pansy style and make sure he isn't hit.  

That said, I am surprised to see so many basically write off Hendo. Hendo had no real advantage vs. Fedor or Shogun either...less advantages really than he does vs. Machida.  They both had more power and better chins than Machida.  Yet he won both of those.  

Machida should be the favorite, just surprised how many people write Dan off totally.  Usually when people do that he wins.

Good Luck on the plays though.  All I have is Faber by dec -122.  Tough card to cap in my eyes.  
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