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Quote Originally Posted by rjbodnar62: That stat is just not true. If it were that easy to hit 64% winners, everyone and their brother would be retired. Where are you getting your numbers from? Its actually very close to 50% My numbers show home dogs +7 or more cover about 60% of the time since 1996. Also show about 60% since 2005. |
TheSituation559 | 51 |
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The analysis I did was a while back. Here is a myl write up, which does not focus on betting.
https://community.advancednflstats.com/2008/12/straight-up-winners.html The real basic question is how can in- game box score data (pass, runs, time of possession, yards gained etc) be an INDEPENDENT variable when the score influences that data. |
Cool_Money | 24 |
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I don't know of any links...and I no longer have the files.
But if I reacall correctly neither money line bets nor bets on sides were profitable. |
Cool_Money | 24 |
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I think you miss read that post. Burke list his winning percent straight up at 66.2% and then shows how often the Las Vegas opening line favorite won which is 66.1%. Burke does not discuss how his straight up picks did vs the Las Vegas line.
I think Burke does a great job...but he is not picking winners against the spread. |
Cool_Money | 24 |
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I checked this a few years ago...his straight up win per cents were very accurate. That is, teams that he said had a 65% chance of winning won about 65% of the time. But this was all straight up.
When his straight up win projections were applied to point spreads, there was no real advantage. |
Cool_Money | 24 |
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nice work
take a look at twominutewarning............they did some work on season overs and unders |
Luckydan | 15 |
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I agree with the posters that say the Giants have a shot. With a healthy D-line they can play with anyone. They need Nicks, Ballard and Manningham to get healthy, With a full set of healthy receivers, they can score points.
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CalifDreamin | 46 |
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no...he is not a espn employee
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AlphaDog | 77 |
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I don't know the longest streak, but the 2003 Oakland Raiders lost the first 9 games ATS. The 2007 New England team won the first 10 games ATS.
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Sopranoman27 | 25 |
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A good honest proxy used by both keven and me is
Bob Frederick email bobfrederick@msn.com phone 702-248-6734 |
jreave | 17 |
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keven, you said "I tried looking for my old proxys phone no. but cannot find it yet. He
was great, a 200 flat fee no take on your winnings .The guy was from
philly and his name is bob."
was that bob frederick?? he was my proxy for years (until i got a partner in Las Vegas) and did a great job. |
jreave | 17 |
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This site has info on contests in las vegas
https://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/Discussions.aspx?id=307188 |
jreave | 17 |
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Advanced NFL Stats gives rankings to WR's based on stats. they show one version of the top 10 for 2010 as
https://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?year=2010&pos=WR&season=all |
browndog | 45 |
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Can we bet on the games?
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GunShard | 10 |
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As I see the problem, there are a bunch of problems:
Definition of revenue--- what is subject to sharing (TV, apparel sales, radio rights, live gates, luxury boxes, photo rights, concession and parking income, etc.) Percentage of sharing---players vs owners and owners vs owners. Economic problems of big market teams vs small market teams Salary caps and salary minimums. Injuries. Pensions. Guarantied player contacts. Length of schedule (18 games vs 16 games) Egos of the principals. And anymore items that anyone can think of. And while the items can be discussed one at a time, they cannot be resolved one at a time because they are inter-related. I don't know how to solve any of the problems. And it is hard to see the players walking away from the game because they (as individuals) have few options at the pay scales they are accustomed to. And it is hard to see the owners risking the franchise going down the tubes. A year without NFL football would be a disaster for all concerned. What a mess. |
pirates11 | 42 |
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A problem not mentioned is the IRS. Cash transaction of $ 10,000 or more are subject to IRS information reporting.
Bet $5,500 to win $5000 does not trigger a report, But win and cash the ticket ($10,500) triggers an IRS report. |
Johny_Utah | 121 |
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jwsone is correct..sign up in person, use a proxy, the Hilton will mail you the prize if you win.
But there is no need to pay a proxy 10%. send me a message and I will put you on touch with a proxy who does not add a commission on winnings. |
bigslickk | 36 |
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from 2004 thru 2009
same conditions as before won 326, lost 291 52.8% won st up but lost ats by 10 or more was too small to be meaningful and are included in above One of the possible problems with this theory's approach is that we are looking at only one of the two teams in the game. |
tuttleberry | 121 |
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Where did you get that info from??
From my private data base that goes back to 1996. |
tuttleberry | 121 |
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I checked on the 1 unit bets (bet on the team if it lost last week by 10 points or more ATS---I did not exclude games where both teams were 1 unit bets so I under state the results a very little bit
weeks 2 thru and including 16, no week 17 and no playoffs 1996 thru 2009 raw numbers won 697 lost 659 51.4% win rate sorry to break the bubble didn't check the 2 or 3 unit bets |
tuttleberry | 121 |
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