Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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6/27 - DET @ -138
$643.61 to win $466.38
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hurleymc | 10 |
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6/26 - DET @ -145
Current bankroll = $898.97 $255.36 to win $176.11
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hurleymc | 10 |
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6/25 - DET @ -139
Starting Bankroll = $1000 $101.03 to win 72.68 - (7.268% gain) I show the Tigers striking out and walking more than the Angels, hitting for more power, higher BABIP (.335 vs. .288) and a higher OBP (.380 vs. .332) over the last 7 days. DET just took 3 of 4 at home from Boston and LAA got swept at home by PIT. I like DET to win one game at home from LAA.
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hurleymc | 10 |
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6/24 - I don't see any plays for today but anticipate starting up tomorrow.
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hurleymc | 10 |
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Throwing out my all-or-nothing MLB chase system for constructive criticism. I've never really liked the fact that I go all or nothing but it's high risk/high reward so until I can figure out a better way, this is what I've been working with. I'm hoping I can get some ideas on how to make it better and keep it rolling. Long story short, I look at a variety of inputs to select a series. I mainly look at performance over the past 7 days in terms of Runs Scored, % of ABs ending in Ks & BBs, ISO, BA, BABIP, SLG, and OBP. I look at the pitching matchups for the 3 games and pay particular attention to a pitcher's recent performance home/away. Once I have the series selected, I'll look at the lines and try to come up with estimates for all 3 games. Depending on what time I book the action, I may/may not be able to see the overnight line for the next day's game. Once I have all 3 lines, I have a linear programming model set up that tells me how to split my bankroll over the 3 games to get the max payout. For $hits and giggles, I'm going to start posting my plays in this thread. Let's assume I start with a bankroll of $1000. If I win a series, I roll the winnings into the next selection so I'm compounding the winnings. Assuming a 6% return on a series, playing 50 series in a season would give you a nice return if you can avoid a sweep. Again, I'm looking for constructive criticism on the system, including the money management. Don't post that it's stupid to wager your entire bankroll on one series. I got it. Post something that can help us all make some money. |
hurleymc | 10 |
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