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grins1010
grins1010
Quote Originally Posted by RACKNEL:

TB will not give up the first pick for a meaningless win. 


Agreed Racknel




grins1010
grins1010
Now with Clausen getting the start, I'm even happier I got my play in early. This could not have worked out better thus far.  
grins1010
grins1010
Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:

i agree with the seattle pick..in fact, you should just bet seattle 1st Q, 2nd Q, 3rd Q, 4th Q, 1st half, 2nd half, whole game 

arizona should be headed down a downward spiral FAST....bruce arians is good but not THAT good ....ryan lindley is 0td and 7ints career stats...oh my lord and he almost threw 2 picks when he came in for drew stanton 


idk bout your gb tho ...they are weird outside of home and mike evans and vincent jackson can put numbers on the board 


Born and raised in Chicago over here. I've watched Rodgers own good old Lovie year in and year out.  Nothing is going to change.  Rodgers off a loss, Nelson dropping that ball, losing the hold of the division all adds up to a wrath of vengence, and Tampa Bay talent + a Lovie coached team is exactly the standard ingredients for a beat down.  It will be GB 21(+) TB 10 by halftime. 
Just sayin. 
grins1010
grins1010
Quote Originally Posted by nickolaskus:


Not so sure on the Arizona game.  7-0 at home, is Lindley that much of downgrade from Stanton?  Seahawks have no tape on Lindley and he knows the offence..  They both can sling it, and Arizona's run game has really improved with Kerwynn Williams.  49ers were gashing the Hawks in seattle with the run game in first half until gore/hyde went out.  Also, Seahawks most penalized team in leage, could factor.  Not to mention Okung out, Calais Campbell will be all over willson/lynch.  He had 3 sacks first game.  Place will be rocking, its for the home field through out the Playoffs! Wilson sacked 7 times in Seattle this year but the offence had no running game so it was tough.  WIll be loud as hell in the stadium, this is no Levi's Stadium.  Guess its gonna game down to can lindley manage the game and give the D and crowd a chance to factor.  I'll take the 9 pts and thow a unit on the ML.


All valid points, and there is solid value in the AZ ML play.  That being said, AZ is beat up and their QB is making his first appearance of the season against both the champions, and playing like a repeat would not be a huge surprise. 

It comes down to this much for me - Wilson, a QB who just won the last super bowl will handle the pressure on the road against a stout defense better than a 3rd string QB getting his season opener against the Seattle defense.  Lindley has 171 more attempts in the NFL then Johnny Manziel had last week.  I'm betting Lindley's experience sitting on the bench watching pros play is enough to overcome the Seattle defense.  AZ scoring 17 is less likely than Seattle forcing 2+ turnovers the way I see it. 


Its a jungle right now, and the Seahawks look more like a predator, and the AZ looks more like prey.  


grins1010
grins1010


My prediction is between

Sea -6 or less 1st half - 4 units
GB - 5.5 or less 1st half - 4 units

Reasoning-
I'm weary of moving on both the Green Bay and Seattle two score spread.  Garbage points at the end especially in the GB game concern me, however both Seahawks and Packers 1st half lines will open -6 or less. 

Rodgers and friends just lost control of their grasp on the division lead, and have the lowly Buccaneers to take it out on while trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Pack play Detroit week 17 who has already beat them, so this game still means a lot to them.

Seattle may have its hands full with the Cardinals defense, but Seattle is going to shred what is becoming a squad of backups at skill positions on offense for Arizona.  Beyond that, AZs already inept O took a beating last week as the Rams and Arizona hit the hell out of each other all day.  An already beat up AZ team gets a potential deadly blow to the fate of their season by Seattle.  Using a buffer for this game as the offensive production is not a guarantee like it is from the Pack.  Less than two field goals, pull the trigger.  Also interested to see what the team total numbers will be for AZ.

grins1010
grins1010
Seattle-2
AZ is so beat up and Seattle has been rolling like they could repeat.

Lions -1
I'd've in Chicago. I follow the Bears. This is going to be a beat down, and Lions know how important avoiding Rodgers at Lambeau. Chicago has made enough prime time embarrassments this year to warrant much of a explanation. 

Boom Shalock lock Boom.




grins1010
grins1010
Doubling down on NE/DET Teaser - 2 units
grins1010
grins1010
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Great teaser

Thanks.
BOL
amd
amd
NFL Betting / Monday / View Post
Your the man AMD. Years of good concise content. Keep rolling. You Train and Calbear have stood the test of time.
grins1010
grins1010
Rams (-4) 1 unit - Red hot Rams roll over AZ team that has looked quite vulnerable the last few weeks.

Raiders (+10.5) 1 unit - Keep it simple. Raiders have been improving and building morale the last few weeks, Chrifs have been sliding and facing post season disappointment. Division game, I'll take 10 plus the enticing half point almost every time.

Cowboys (ML +165) 1 unit - I know. Romo in Winter blows, but they will control the clock and lean on Murray, so I'll fade the Eagles and take the value.

NE (-1) & Lions (-.5) 2 team teaser - NE and Detroit should win outright at home this week. Watching Detroit punish McCown on Tampa was like watching the Russian fight Apollo Creed in Rocky VI. Do I need to explain why I feel NE wins outright @ home coming off a loss to GB? No.

Gamble Gamble
grins1010
grins1010
As Denver won by what number?! Oh yeah, ten.
grins1010
grins1010
At what point do you humble yourself and say "Fair enough, that's spot on."
grins1010
grins1010
When will they learn not to bet against Peyton Manning unless you get 10+ at home?!
amd
amd

Wh

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:





Line should be 7 or 8


When did -4.5 for a home fav become "serious chalk"


All Muthfuckin Day

Kinda.  I think the point was AMD is laying chalk in all 3 picks.  Understandably a red flag, but I took GB, HOU and am thinking about Sea as well if it slips under 3 with my local. 

Hou is $ and GB wins revenge games in the post season.  Trust me, I'm a die hard Bears fan.  This is God's macabre sense of humor.

Beergut
Beergut
Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:

If you are going to rent an apartment the cheapest you will find is maybe a studio for around 500 a month

so thats 6500 for the year including security deposit

You will have Bills

I will not have bills.

I will have "the Bills at + 7.5" 

PrimeTimeBoys
PrimeTimeBoys
Quote Originally Posted by RiskyAce:

Hahaha the bears defense is overrated, cowboys just needs romo to make smart decisions and this game will be ugly for bear backers... Cowboys is the better team and should be favored by more. A lot of value with the line at -3


    

People assume that because they aren't in the spotlight.  Just turn on the post game coverage.  Its 90% Cowboys analysis, and a sprinkle of Bears when the announce the final score.   Nobody who watches Bears games questions the D.  They have 4 players on that side of the ball that could easily make the pro bowl every year.  
brockboy25
brockboy25

Awful.  Risking real money to win chump change on those ML.

 

Clinton0
Clinton0

I love both TB and Cinci and have but about 1/5 of my bankroll on each.  There is no convincing me they both lose.  Blane Gabbert may be the most awful starting QB so far this decade.

grins1010
grins1010

Started off brutal, but back even after going 4-1 last week.

KC + 1 - My riskiest play, but Arrowhead is loud, and I love me a home dog.  SD is not what they were, and while I dont think Rivers is bad, I do not see him being good without all the weapons around him he had in years past. (I took the ML for better payout)

TB -1  Washington is demolished on D, and TB is a better team, and almost a pick em despite being at home. 

Cinci -1 @ Jac - Cinci has not looked great by anymeans, but Jacksonville has looked like a team of turds.  Blane will have another 140yd 1 TD 3 Turnover day, because those are the numbers that best represent his ability.  He sucks.   MAX BET

 

grins1010
grins1010

Tampa + 9

St Louis / Chi 43 Over

NO - 9

KC @ NO 53 under

Jets -1

Buf @ Cle 44.5 under

Atl + 3 (Rediculous line.  Atl should be favored by 3.5) - Large Play

Hou @ Den 44.5 over

Ari +3.5

Pit -3.5  (Large play)

 

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