Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3: JEG -- in my earlier days, I would have said "wow I'm on fire, time to go big" and would have played 6 or 7 games. Now that I've been doing this somewhat seriously for probably 3-4 years, I've realized that it truly is a marathon. Not every day will have games that are good spots to hit, and playing a game just for the sake of playing a game or because you want action is a road to disaster. I'm just trying to stay patient and not let the hot start effect how I am evaluating my plays. But SolidCapper from last night's thread is right -- whenever someone starts out this hot, the law of statistics would lead you to believe that they are going to cool off. If you can harness that and fade the person, you can capitalize. The hard part is knowing when the hot streak is over -- definitely not an easy task. Thanks for stopping in JEG Well said! Very well said. |
kaponofor3 | 61 |
|
|
No KGC?? Haven't seen him so far.
|
eppy224 | 1 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Kent: You ain't got no good enGlish, do ya I don't understand the relativity here. Frankly, I dont care if he writes in Hebrew, as long as I can understand what plays he likes. |
HotShotPicks | 22 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by HotShotPicks: So far what we have backtrack the system is 170-80 so far. Give us a week and we tell u how many games we lost and won No games ever on Thurdsay Good e'nuf for me. Looking forward to the ride HotShot! |
HotShotPicks | 22 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by HotShotPicks: It was 3am when I post it up...I was falling a sleep on the computer...LoL Good job my friend. Congrats to you AND your son. Continued success to you. |
HotShotPicks | 22 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty: They #1 key stats are adjusted tempo, adj defensive, and adj offensive. Tempo is HUGE for totals... you wanna look at possessions per game. Adj Offensive eff is points per possession, with the opponents defensive rankings adjusted into it. Adj Defensive eff is points given up per possession with the opponents offensive rankings adjusted into it. For example, looking at last years stats... heres a basic of how you can come up with a total: Lets say VMI played UNC VMI tempo: 80.9 possessions per game UNC tempo: 73.9 possessions per game I would say there is about 78 possessions in this game. VMI's offfensive: 106.3, or 1.063 points per possession UNC Defense: 89.6 or 0.896 points per possession. Based on 78 possessions and an avg of .975 ppp, VMI scores 76 points. UNC offense: 124.2 or 1.242 points per possession VMI defense: 108.2 or 1.082 points per possession UNC scores: 91 The projected score in a neutral court would be 91-76 UNC Bad example obviously as UNC would have likely put up 100+, but a good starting point. I also wanna say that the totals will be very sharp once February comes... Using kenpom's stats will be MOST successful for totals in December and January. There are other ways where using kenpom's stats could be huge in picking sides. The keys will be looking at what defense the teams play, and looking at each others offensive strengths. What teams are MOST reliant on 3's and what teams force the most 3's. The teams that give up the most % of 3's will play a heavy zone. https://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=OppF3GRate As you can tell by this, its quite obvious without even watching these teams that SIU-Edwardsville and Drexel both played tight man-to-man, while Chattanooga and Air Force both played zone. You just have to look for situations where a great 3-point shooting team thats reliant on is playing a team that gives up a lot of 3-point attempts. AN example from 2008-2009 was Wisconsin Green Bay against Valparaiso. Valpo played a zone defense, and gave up the 320th most 3-pointers, at almost 40% of all attempts. Wisconsin Green Bay took 36% of there shots behind 3 and hit 40% of them, so they would be considered a solid 3-point dependent and reliable team. Bad matchup for Valparaiso. Wisconsin Green Bay won both meetings... 83-76 and 76-61. Wisc-GB covered both and both games went well over the total. You just have to use the stats given smartly. Excellent! Sorry I didn't see this before I posted the first time. |
lastsecondcover | 25 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty: Don't make a bet without looking at the stats on www.kenpom.com Its the #1 key to betting totals and is HUGELY profitable. Brian, can you show me the most potentially profitable way to use these ratings? Any reply appreciated. |
lastsecondcover | 25 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by JoBOO731: So by you not sharing or giving us any idea on your system just means to me that you have a lot of time on your hands to make up some crazy story and at best you will be a 50-55% winner and that is being nice. Anyway good luck with it And what is his info costing you (us)? Oh yea , that's right......nothing. |
K4ngur13 | 362 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by skan: hey VG, There's another way to predict the winner that is much easier than doing the spreadsheet. On the SOS website, the last column (predictor) can be use to estimate the point difference between the two teams. for example on Thursday's game. N. Car = 71.46 VA Tech = 91.10 The difference is 19.46 or 20 so Va Tech should win by 20 pts. Just wanted to share what I learn recently. I've used this exact method weeks prior without a great deal of success. I also noticed per your example, that you didn't figure in home field advantage. Unless that's already factored |
VGPOP | 360 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by Monsta: VGPOP, first thanks for everything. This may be a stupid question, but what's the system's record for the year??
GOOD question. I know I would be interested in knowing. |
VGPOP | 360 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by tbahtsevanos: Thats the thing bud I cannot give my secrets away....I am willing to share with you guys my picks though and thats all you really need. To be honest my system really could be just A/B chase but to NEVER LOSE ANY MONEY A/B/C/D has never lost and I am talking about making money on a daily basis. C's come about 5% of the time and I have never used a D but I like to have it just in case. Other than that just keep coming back for picks and you wont be disappointed I promise! Good e'nuf for me! Continued success to you. |
tbahtsevanos | 84 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by rman1049:
Thanks For the help jv040 and fritz218 !!!
sportsinsights. The best out there. |
rman1049 | 9 |
|
|
Where does one go to backtrack the "ats" streaks?
Thanks for any suggestions.
|
donvndcn | 138 |
|
|
Impressive Red! You too Ferndog. VERY impressive.
Thanks for the hard work.
|
calinreddog | 100 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by donvndcn:
I call this a portfolio system because you can put them in and trust me at the end of the day you will win money, break even and 1 out of 3 times you will lose somewhat. Never have I lost them all and went belly up. If you look back on Sunday and Monday the favorites worked wonders so you can verify that this worked well.
You have to pick even number of games for this to work and put about 20 bucks between the two you match up. For example for Tuesday we will go with
Ohio -4 for $55
Toledo -4 for $35
Miami Ohio -4 $55
No Illinios -5 for $35
Colorado -6 for $55
Texas Tech -10 for $35
Duke -18 $55
Maryland -9 for $35
I will not be keeping track of it cause I only do this once or twice a week to make a profit and then done. If you do this everyday you will find 1 out of 3 days you will lose some and it is crazy to be up and then lose the profits.
I will explain more in detail how I arrive at the games later in the day but I try to match up games with similar lines and I always try and take strong teams to add to the portfolio.
You can start with small amonts to test it if you want but it works wonders. Most players will play alot of games and play favors and dogs, this decreases your chances of hitting wheras if you play only favors or dogs you will have more of a chance at hitting.
Also by dividing up the increments it prevents losing your tail in juice in case of a split of all games and it increases the earnings if you win more out of your portfolio. I hope I can bring some stuff here and make new friends as well as ideas and help.
I do not have time to crunch numbers and stats and back test systems so I rely on things I can do by capping fast and with limited time.
I don't understand what you mean when you say you try to match up teams with "similiar lines". What does that mean exactly? |
donvndcn | 9 |
|
|
The only part I'm not getting is, when does a chase begin?
|
gasman33 | 77 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by louisdzone:
best bets 4-0 all bets 9-4 cinn pending Great job Lou! However, Mem/N.O. over 195 was a best bet, and the final score was (193). I got it at 194. Still, great day. |
louisdzone | 4 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by louisdzone:
ncaab totals und 121org st/iowa st over 129.5char/s.ill like over ? wis/mar tonight no line yet
Thanks Lou. Very much appreciated. |
louisdzone | 3 |
|
|
Good job Lou!
|
louisdzone | 5 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by sambuca frank:
IF YOU HAD YOUR HAT ON STRAIGHT, I MIGH'T
By the way Sam, will you be posting the plays? |
sambuca frank | 74 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.