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ejackson | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24: Seems like way too many loses on a 3 game chase. It would seem that the play would be system 4, but run each game (A, B C) on it's own labby line. 52% or more on a labby line is a money making system. System 1 is plus money system - i'm guesing that average odds are +130ish. So 48 % is not that bad right.
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ejackson | 12 |
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Here you go, thats all i got.
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ejackson | 12 |
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5 game UNDER chase: A:129-150 (46 %) A,B: 200-229 (47 %) A,B,C: 243-265 (48 %) A,B,C,D:262-282 (48 %) A,B,C,D,E:270-291 (48 %) 5 game OVER chase: A:115-84 (58 %) A,B: 164-119 (58 %) A,B,C: 184-134 (58 %) A,B,C,D: 193-140 (58 %) 5 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 193-6
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ejackson | 12 |
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4 game UNDER chase: A:249-277 (47 %) A,B: 376-427 (47 %) A,B,C: 449-504 (47 %) A,B,C,D:491-539 (48 %) A,B,C,D,E:509-556 (48 %) 4 game OVER chase: A:222-200 (53 %) A,B: 337-285 (54 %) A,B,C: 386-321 (55 %) A,B,C,D: 406-337 (55 %) 4 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 406-16
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ejackson | 12 |
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3 game UNDER chase: A:538-526 (51 %) A,B: 788-802 (50 %) A,B,C: 919-947 (49 %) A,B,C,D:989-1022 (49 %) A,B,C,D,E:1029-1057 (49 %) 3 game OVER chase: A:458-420 (52 %) A,B: 679-619 (52 %) A,B,C: 796-701 (53 %) A,B,C,D: 845-734 (54 %) 3 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 845-33
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ejackson | 12 |
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Some O/U streak chase stats (betting opposite of the steak):
2 game UNDER chase: - playing only A bets: 939-1071 (47 %) - playing A and B: 1478-1603 (48 %) - playing A, B and C: 1734-1879 (48 %) 2 game OVER chase: A:965-884 (52 %) A,B: 1429-1304 (52 %) A,B,C: 1645-1508 (52 %) 2 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 1767-82 |
ejackson | 12 |
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Just putting it out there if anybody has any use of it.
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ejackson | 12 |
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This is my post from SBR forum 02-10-12.
Out of interest i did a backtest for some NHL systems. I don't use these systems, i don't know if anybody uses these systems, i was just backtesting the 3 game road chase system and did other systems at the same time. I backtested all postlockout seasons (starting with season 05-06) with this years season included. There are some minor mistakes as this was done with paper and pencil but that can't change the %.
1. 3 game road chase (a team goes on a 3 or more road games in a row) - ML bets (NO +1,5 PL!) A: 492-622 (44 %) B: 295-325 (48 %) C: 135-191 (41 %) 2. 3 game road chase - road team will lose one game out of 3 in regulation (that means you bet on home teams - ML bets can get very expensice so i did a backtest on regulation lines) A: 480-634 (43 %) B: 263-371 (41 %) C: 160-212 (43 %) 3. 3 game home chase (a team has 3 or more games at home in a row) - to win one game out of three in regualtion A: 484-598 (45 %) B: 267-327 (45 %) C: 130-201 (39 %) 4. 3 game home chase - to win one game out of three ML A: 607-474 (56 %) B: 254-220 (54 %) C: 114-107 (52 %) 5. 3 game home chase - home team will lose one game out of three A: 474-608 (44 %) B: 258-352 (42 %) C: 129-222 (37 %) |
ejackson | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
Also depends on the type of system (juice per game and the number of games)
Something like the Post All Star System will bet on the best teams for up to 6 games. Juice will be high and by game 4 it is possible to risking 15-25 units.
This system, with low juice, will be 8-10 units by game 4.
To build on Jeff's comments, you may be better off limiting yourself to 2-3 systems with larger units sizes, then 5-6 systems with smaller unit sizes.
Another option with multiple systems is to not start a chase on G1, but on G3 or so. Less games, higher win%. This is what i like to do in baseball. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 365 |
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Jeff, is it possible to share A,B,C,... games breke down for this system. I read the thread but didn't find that data.
Thank you
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JEFFTHEHAT | 353 |
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For anybody interested. All the plays in this thread are 38-41 in regulation. A lot of games, aspecialy home games, went to OT so if you played them -1, there would be a lot of pushes. A friend from Slovenia |
RealityCheck1 | 272 |
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I don't know about a two game chase. I suppose somebody backtested the system and a two game chase doesn't produce results. About -150 road fav? I went back to my spreadsheet and this is what i got. Last year i was writing down the lines for all system plays from october 8 to december 23. Than i quit for aboz 3 months and started again on march 10 to march 31. From 119 system plays i've got 30 road favs (once i played NJ +1,5 at -145) at average odds of -119. 89 system games were road dogs at average price at +139. The biggest road fav was TB -145 at NYI -and they lost, the biggest dog was ATL +214 at PHIL and they won. I know that 3 months of info is missing but just for the info, here is a breakdown: from -154 to -140 we were 3-1 from -139 to -130 we were 2-2 from -129 to -120 we were 4-1 from -119 to -110 we were 6-1 from -109 to -101 we were 3-7 from 100 to 109 we were 6-5 from 110 to 119 we were 6-8 from 120 to 129 we were 7-9 from 130 to 139 we were 1-12 (wow) from 140 to 149 we were 4-6 from 150 to 159 we were 2-3 from 160 to 169 we were 2-1 from 170 to 179 we were 3-5 from 180 to 199 we were 3-3 from 200 to 214 we were 1-2 Like I said before - on a two line labby this system last year produced 62 units of profit, two years ago over a 100 units.
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KongKiller | 855 |
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Thanks for the explanation. Basically is pretty straight forward. Most of the time you are playing road dogs, so the odd varies from +100 to +200. Some times you play a road favourite - last year i think the biggest road fav was around -150, but that is more an exception than a rule. This system has its up and downs but its simple and its producing results.
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KongKiller | 855 |
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You will have to excuse me, but i don't know what you mean with the "juice"? Sorry, i'm from overseas. |
KongKiller | 855 |
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When a team goes on 3 or more game road trip, play that team for the first two games (if they win the first game, the series is done) on the ML. If you lose both, the series is done. Last year this simple system made about 60 units of profit, two years ago over a 100 units. I used two line labby.
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KongKiller | 855 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ejackson:
If you have two bets (lets take yestredays example - to win 25+161=186) and you win them both you clear 186 X 2 from your lines. I doesn't matter which lines you cross (normally you cross your biggest lines to reduse your bets = risk). So if nyi and nash both have won I would cross 25 and 161 + 25 and 99 and some of the 88. I hope its clear what i mean. Its been a while since i have written something in english. In your case - yesterday you lost you big wager and won your small wager. You always have to make the same wagers as you never know what will happen in the game. Just read again that PSIC stuff about labby that was posted.
In the second sentence i ment "to cross the numbers" not lines. Sorry. |
smdio | 174 |
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Quote Originally Posted by smdio:
I never knew that about the order from smallest to biggest. I always thought it should be in the order that you lose them in. As far as the 2 bets being for the same amount: we actually discussed a little in this thread about doing it both ways. It made a little more sense to try and split the bets up on the line, to try and recover more losses per bet, instead of just 1. Is there a reason specific to why they should all be the same? If you have two bets (lets take yestredays example - to win 25+161=186) and you win them both you clear 186 X 2 from your lines. I doesn't matter which lines you cross (normally you cross your biggest lines to reduse your bets = risk). So if nyi and nash both have won I would cross 25 and 161 + 25 and 99 and some of the 88. I hope its clear what i mean. Its been a while since i have written something in english. In your case - yesterday you lost you big wager and won your small wager. You always have to make the same wagers as you never know what will happen in the game. Just read again that PSIC stuff about labby that was posted.
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smdio | 174 |
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I read almost everything in the systems thread but don't post much. Just my 2 cents about your labby. First - numbers in the labby lines should be in order from the smallest to the biggest. In your case smdio you B line should be 25-25-25-79-88-99-161. And second - if you have 2 or more B bets in one night you should play them all for the same amount. In your case today - you should play nyi and nash to win 25+161. This is how i understand and play labby. Good luck |
smdio | 174 |
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Has anyone considered to bet on tier 1 teams when they play at tier 3 teams? |
Call82 | 806 |
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