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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS: Final pick of the year Alabama -6.5 Megalocks line 9 Sagarin 5 Well however this game turns out - On paper we have a pretty compelling matchup. Ironically - for the first time in a long time - these were our two best teams in our rankings for most of the season and we have really enjoyed watching both of these squads all year. We have watched 2/3 of Alabama's games start to finish and seen most or part of well over half of Clemson's games....We feel like we have a good handle on the teams - but most importantly - how the matchup may favor the Tide. On several occasions this year we have stated how Dabo - and Clemson to be honest - has not gotten the credit or recognition that they deserve for being so consistently good over the past 4-5 years and beating REALLY good teams in bowl games. As underdogs. Against very good or great head coaches. By now - you have read a bunch of write-ups - heard about all the players - matchups - X factors - KY factors - Z factors - motivation - etc...To us this game comes down to a something really simple - can Clemson run the ball against the Alabama D - but more specifically - can Watson run the ball against that front 7 productively AND without getting killed ? Alabama is peaking right now and look scary at QB to go along with that D - so Clemson is going to have to score some points and the only way that happens is if they can be balanced and run the ball for at least 150 IMO. Well this is one of the best run Ds we have seen - giving up only 70/game on the ground. They are #2 in D - #1 in rush D and scoring D all while playing the most DIFFICULT SCHEDULE....beating among others Tenn LSU Miss St Aub Mich ST Ark Ga Wisc - waaaaaaaaaaaaaaat ??? Just as a frame of reference - never like to go back in time much at this point - but BC has the 2nd best run D and they held Clemson to just over 100 yds rushing - Gallman 48 and Watson 32. Of course they could throw at will vs BC - but have to think Bama shuts their run game down in a similar fashion and if Watson doesnt get killed running the ball not sure he can pick them apart other than on a big play or three do not think that will be enough. And we read somewhere - cannot find it been looking this morning - but something like Clemson's special teams were the 2nd worst in the NCAA in terms of net points allowed attributed to ST. Not good. And Bama has the ability to sting you in the return game. I did some more work but at this point - you have all probably bet the game already or read some of this crap. Summary. Think that this Bama D is THAT good and if Clemson cannot run the ball consistently cannot see them covering because we feel Alabama will score 3TDs or more. Whatever happens - we wish both sets of FANS best of luck and congrats having your team in the big game. And yes - we will drink out of our frosty Clemson mug during the game should we decide to have a beer or two. Best of luck to all. Thanks for a fun season. MEGA Your last pick of the season agrees with the model I use so GL to you mega and can't wait til next season! Although I really hope Bama loses I like money more. I'll be a "winner" either way. Lol
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MEGALOCKS | 228 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS: BWS, Nickel as solid as they come !! congrats on fantastic seasons guys next pick Hyundai Bellagio Air France SUN BOWL Washington St -2.5 Have to go against our Canes in this one. We are a DOCUMENTED 2-0 in Miami games this year - one play on - one fade...Super pumped for next yr - have a long way to go to get to Florida St or Clemson level but at least there is some hope. Miami finished the season strong and were 4-1 under interim HC...On the surface no big deal to end beating GT and Pitt - but this was after the UNC debacle and they could have packed it in. Kaayaaayyaaa has always impressed us hopefully next year he will have a better supporting cast - running game - and D - to do some special things. Overall we understand they make their hay in the passing game - but not thrilled about their #116 ranking rushing the ball and #107 against the run - our MATH INSIDERS but those numbers added together to give you 225 and no way no how Miami has ever ranked that poorly in those important categories collectively at least in the last 30-40 yrs....They also take a lot of penalties which is awesome - and they have two defenders suspended for the bowl game. They do not get much PENETRATION 12th in the ACC in TFL and #11 D in the ACC...They will move the ball same but they are not consistent enough imo on offense to keep up with a very efficient Wash St offense who should have no problem with the Miami D. They have only turned it over mind you 11 times all yr so a clean game gives them a legit shot to pull the upset but not sure that is gonna happen. Statistically - the Miami D not bad vs the pass but they faced 4 decent QBs in our eyes - gave up 33 34 58 59 to neb cincy clemson unc - maybe we are forgetting somebody but for real like for real - think their secondary can be torched. Speaking of torched. The human SECONDARY TORCH Luke Falk was one of the most impressive players we watched this year - only got to see him a couple of times but WOW what a fine looking SPECIMEN....Yes he missed the Apple Cup with concussion symptoms but is apparently all systems go for this one. Remember in biology class when you dissected that bullfrog and threw the guts at the annoying kid with the weird lip thing? Well this dissection should be fun to watch we think Falk goes nuts. If he somehow misses some time - the backup got some good work in against the Huskies and some bowl practice reps. As far as the Wash St D goes - it all starts with - GENTLEMEN PUT YOUR HANDS TOGETHER FOR DESTINY VAEAO who is part of a very underrated front 7 and they have improved significantly from last yr...Think the Wash St D makes 1 or 2 more plays than the Miami D. 2 final notes. (A) weather. expected to cold with some rain - and a winter storm coming shortly after the game. Miami is not going to like that - sorry - anyone remember how they came out like arctic explorers all bundled up in this game a couple yrs ago vs ND did not want to play...Maybe not the same - but fool us once - shame on you - fool us twice - shame on us - something like that...Wash St edge even with their passing attack in any kind of non-Florida like conditions imo. (B) motivation - neither team has won a bowl game in forever. Wash St only 2 this decade and the last one in 2003. Miami has next yr to look forward to big time. Wash St wants this one more imo. HC Leach especially. Anyone who remembers how he butchered the final minutes of the Col St bowl game a couple years ago is probably still puking in a gutter somewhere. Full focus coming on Saturday. GL - mega The 1st time your pick agrees with the model!!! Just barely tho so no going overboard here. GL Mega
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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Quote Originally Posted by thaknuts: can you tell me what your model says about Indiana/Duke??? thanks in advance.... Indiana by 4. Don't go overboard, the model is 5-3 so far in bowls.
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MEGALOCKS | 228 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127: what did you end up doing? im never using my debit card to deposit on 5dimes. thats for sure. fckin thieves. I just called the credit card company and they sent me a new card. The transaction didnt go through because they tried charging more than I had available. Guess I got lucky in that aspect.
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WahooS | 90 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Igglez: the big ten was pathetic this season. I'd lay 4 points with them playing any team in the top 10, except mich St. Iowa or mich St in the PAC 12, big 12, sec would be middle tier. So you must be max betting ND getting 6.5 if you're willing to lay 4 with them! Why are people arguing about conferences when they don't mean ?? come bowl time. Iowa may be mid tier in other conferences as they didn't play the top 3 teams in the B1G East but MSU would still be toward or at top of those other conferences. All MSU has to do is stop Henry, which they can do since they only allowed 2 100-yd rushers all season. That will force Coker to pull some ?? outta his behind. Bama D is set up for the run but they will have problems stopping the pass unless they don't give Cook time to throw. I will say it's hard to beat Saban when giving him that much time to prepare, but 9.5 points is entirely inflated for the public and the "SEC public opinion."
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WahooS | 90 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127: im scared to use 5dimes.. i had an unauthorized 700$ charge on my debit card from walmart. my bank told me it was a walmart e giftcard they traced the ip down and said the purchaser was in costa rica. ill never use my debit card to deposit again I had my credit card hacked from 5dimes and the person tried using it on Walmart.com. Same exact thing happened to a buddy of mine. Walmart must be big in Costa Rica. Or it's because they don't really have any fraud protection policies. They'll take any bodies money.
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WahooS | 90 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1: they had more than 7 games, i think they had 12 teams in bowls LY and favored in maybe 9... 10 if you count bama twice lol. To be fair PAC is all lined up for similar disappointment this year I think they've got 8 or 9 favorites... #bigshort2015. You're probably right. I was just going off the top of my head remembering something i saw. Not sure why Bama would be counted twice tho...they lost their first Playoff game. Stanford is probably the only PAC team worth looking at and possibly laying any money on
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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Quote Originally Posted by XplictAX: May I offer up some SEC info. Georgia =complete overhaul regarding coaches. Penn st with former Vandy HC and they have been playing well as of late. I like the Pen st ML in this matchup.looks as if Vegas is wanting us to pick Georgia off of name recognition alone. It's pretty much like that on ALL SEC games. Lines tend to overinflated due to the "brand name" but don't forget that AWESOME SEC was 2-5 SU in bowls last year. Let me get the SEC homer excuse out of the way - "they just didn't want to be there." Yea ok, then stay home! You can make a lot of money if the SEC doesn't come to play this year as all of them are favored I believe.
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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Well Temple doesn't line up with the model but it does have Toledo by only 3. Closest so far. I like your write up and do think Temple is the right side here. The HC leaving is usually a big let down, and remember folks; no need to play Temple ML as they cover or will lose straight up. Lol
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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^^^Dude, he said he would want 3 to even consider playing it AKA no way is he playing it at 2.5. If you think Ark St can/will win the game just bet them ML since spread rarely comes into play. Don't lose the juice that way either.
Mega, just curious as to why you don't like playing overs? Only been around your thread a month or so, so don't think I've seen the reason.
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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New Mexico has made it +10. Is it a play now?
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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I will be stating which picks coincide but just remember Mega said himself he is having his best season And nothing is guaranteed.
I can see what you mean by the model not matching up but it went 6-1 or 7-1 last bowl season on playable games so it would be awesome if you match up with some of those games the model says to play.
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MEGALOCKS | 228 |
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SCC in case you haven't read my post in the other thread basically the line hardly comes into play in big games. Either fave covers or the dog wins outright so if you think Clemson wins it may not hurt to put some on the ML. GL with whatever you decide.
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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Are you doing all bowl games or requests? Can't recall that I saw you say either way. Thanks
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MEGALOCKS | 420 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BYUdline56: She must be one sexy model, if you are willing to snub Mega's pic's. Oh, wait...you are talking about picks. Well, it still must be pretty hot to ignore his wager picks. She is pretty sexy. Lol. I would never ever snub Mega's picks, but at the same time I will never play against the math model I use. As I have said before when the model agrees with Mega, the plays are an astounding 20-1. The model has WKU winning by 7 and Oklahoma winning by 12 so I have to just stay away instead of playing against either. GLTA
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MEGALOCKS | 228 |
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Unfortunately the model I use doesn't agree with either of your picks so I'll just stay away. GL Mega
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MEGALOCKS | 228 |
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Some very good info that came in handy last year and I'm sure will this year too:
I realized back in the eighties that when we got to big games,playoff games,bowl games championship games that if you picked the winner,you would win about eighty five percent of the time.By that i mean unlike during the season there are very few back door covers.So i use a line of ten or below.Unrealistic to ask a seventeen point underdog to win outright. The favorite either covers or the underdog wins outright rendering the line fairly meaningless.Look at last year,for example.Ohio State was an underdog to Wisconsin,Alabama and Oregon.Won them all outright.I personally won't bet a dog if i don't think they can win the game outright.i think there are forty two bowl games.I would venture to say if you picked the right winner,not easy to do because you don't know which dogs will bark,you will be about 36-6 best of luck. Hopefully many of you find this to be beneficial this bowl season. GLA
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MEGALOCKS | 228 |
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Mega, I'm gonna be the I don't wanna be that guy, guy at the moment, but I gotta ask if you could go over ULL-Troy. I ask because I want to see if your thoughts agree with that math model I was talking about before.
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MEGALOCKS | 137 |
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Love the threads Mega. Really wish I would've found your plays earlier. I quit coming here for a long time because of all the idiots that just bitched about some good cappers having a losing week instead of doing their own work. Anyway, enough of that. Like I was saying, too bad I didnt come back earlier, I use the best math model I've ever come across to determine if I will play or lay off a game and I back tracked your plays against it this season. Since Week 5 (which is when the data from last season is finally discarded) when the model agrees with your picks it is a whopping 19-1! Nothing is guaranteed, but the model agrees with TT this week. GLA
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MEGALOCKS | 525 |
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Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34: That is 100% correct shark. Just an FYI, as a noob, be VERY careful who you follow & NEVER blindly follow ANYONE without doing research first. There are a TON of scammers on here using inaccurate records (if they even keep them) and NEVER fall for "LOCK" or "GUARANTEE." Those are words scammers and idiots use. I wish someone gave me this advice when I first started. GL Love your buckeyes tomorrow. Also love the Spartans team total under, and the under for the game. Mich state might not score tomorrow, and I'm not kidding. Cook dislocated his shoulder, I don't care what him and Dantonio are saying, and we've got a crippled qb, a weak o line going into the horseshoe and facing 25 mph winds. Spartys toast tomorrow I hope you are right. Really wished we had Megas thoughts on this game but he deserves the break. Only way I see OSU losing is if they are looking ahead to the team up north. We shall see tho.
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MEGALOCKS | 194 |
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