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1-1 tonight.
Take the Rockets (-2.5) against the Warriors, if you want some action on the late games. The Warriors are pretty beat-up and the Rockets are going to start a nice little run, now that Brooks is back. |
billstat | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rw068105: any concerns that john walls not playing at all? Sorry, I was traveling all day for the holidays. John Wall isn't a great NBA player yet. Wall averages almost 4 turnovers per game (elite PG's should be averaging 1.5-2/game. I'll take Hinrich over Wall, until later in the season, as Wall is progressing with every game. The biggest injury in this game was Gerald Wallace for the Bobcats. They really hurt without him on the court, especially on the road. |
billstat | 11 |
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2-1 yesterday, on a 6-1 run. In a hurry, so write-ups to come.
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billstat | 11 |
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My calcs have the Heat by 10.. Vegas is giving Miami a major situational edge in this one.
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dumbfoundead | 41 |
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2-1 tonight.. 6-1 last 7 picks. My record is documented in my covers space.. as I think everyone should have to do, to encourage realistic record-keeping.
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billstat | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rw068105: nice call on the lakers, hope the hornets and rockets follow also Thanks, I just hope Aaron Brooks isn't too rusty. If he plays decent, they should roll.. the Rockets have 2 good PG'S, Tyreke Evans doesn't even know how to be a point guard.
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billstat | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rw068105: hey bill, i'm new here and ive been looking at your plays recently, good job. one question if you dont mind me asking, do you determine the margin in your table or is it from another source? also, are those things on the table the only things you look at for your plays? thanks a lot man, please let me know. rw068105, The margin is derived from my calculations and adjusted according to other factors. The raw statistical data helps me find out which teams Vegas deems to have an advantage, because the line will not make sense, statistically. For example, last night the Magic were statistically projected to beat the Sixers by 13, but the line closed at +6.5. That means Vegas deemed the Sixers to have a major situational edge, because the line was so different from the pure statistical projection. This may seem like a backwards way to cap the games, but it is the most effective way to beat the books. You are betting the teams that Vegas gives the distinct edge. Because, trust me, Vegas has great statistical minds on their side, they don't just make statistical line mistakes. My table is larger than than the version I post. It takes 13 columns of dynamic statistical calculations to arrive at the projected score, I cut the table down to 3 statistical columns when I publish it. I do this: 1) Because the table is too big and confusing if I don't scale it down 2) It keeps my formula as a "trade secret" because you can't crack my formula if you can't see all of the calculations that go into it. |
billstat | 11 |
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On a nice little 4-pick winning streak. Documentation and full stat-wise projected scoring table found here.
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billstat | 11 |
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Documentation and stat-derived score predictions for every NBA game, found here.
The Magic have looked uninspired lately, and they are having major scoring issues. 9 points is just too much to lay against a talented 76ers team that are finding their stride.I think the Magic win this game, but you never know. Considering how they have been playing lately, they are vulnerable to an upset scenario.This line is fragmented, some books have it as low as +6.5 while other have it at +9.5. So if you can get it at +9.5 you are getting extreme value.
This is a good spot to just take your chances. The Jazz are more than able to pull a road win off here, and they will be fired-up and due for progression after that terrible showing in New Orleans last night. Also, the Jazz are 100% healthy while the Bucks are a bit banged-up. |
billstat | 1 |
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