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Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers: Koaj, If I recall you werent around much for the Carter era. I was younger myself but do recall some of the things you mentioned and I have to comment on a few things you bring up here. The president of the US has ZERO and that is a big ZERO control over interest rates. The federal reserve controls interest rates, thus the Prime rate. Carter had no way of changing federal reserve policy and it has nothing to do with him. Just like now, Bush doesnt deserve the credit for historic low rates, that is federal reserve policy plain and simple. The oil/gas issue was completely caused by the inefficient vehicles made during the time and the inefficient production methods that our industries used to make raw and finished goods. Can you even imagine the effect 65 buck oil and 3 dollar gas would have if our vehicles were pieces of sh!t running 5-10 MPG? I could really care less about the Olympic boycott, who cares if the Soviets were peeved at us, who considers this a presidential event? If it werent for the federal reserve eliminating our view of M3 and pumping HUGE liquidity (Mexico style) and killing the value of the greenback, I think we would be experiencing some heavy inflation. These policies will return on us, not if but when. There is no comparison between Carter and Bush. The comparison really should be between LBJ and Bush II INTEREST RATES ARE LOW WHEN OUR ECONOMY IS BAD! MORTGAGE RATES ARE DRIVEN BY THE 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE, A GOVERNMENT BOND. IT IS AN EXTREMELY SECURE INVESTMENT AND ONE THAT HAS A VERY LOW RETURN. LOW RISK = LOW RETURN. YOU BUY A 10-YEAR NOTE, YOU GIVE THE GOVERNMENT A LOAN OF $1,000 FOR 10 YEARS, EVERY YEAR THEY PAY YOU A YIELD (OR RATE OF RETURN). THIS YIELD IS LOWER THAN ALMOST ALL OTHER INVESTMENTS OUT THERE BECAUSE IT IS LOW RISK. WHEN THE ECONOMY IS DOWN INVESTORS MOVE THEIR MONEY AWAY FROM RISKIER INVESTMENTS SUCH AS STOCKS (WHICH TYPICALLY WILL GIVE YOU HIGHER RETURNS, HIGH RISK = HIGHER RETURN) AND INTO SECURE INVESTMENTS SUCH AS THE 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE. THIS DRIVES THE YIELD OF THESE BONDS DOWN, BASIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND. IF MORE PEOPLE WANT TO BUY GOVERNMENT BONDS THEN THEY DON'T HAVE TO PAY AS MUCH OF A PREMIUM AND THE YIELD GOES DOWN. AND INTEREST RATES GO WITH IT. SEE THIS LINK: https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5eTNX&t=5d&c= THE HIGHER THE YIELD ON THE 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE THE HIGHER INTEREST RATES GO. THIS IS DUE TO LESS DEMAND FOR THESE NOTES AS INVESTORS REQUIRE A HIGHER RATE OF RETURN TO BUY THEM VERSUS STOCKS. IT IS VERY SIMPLE, AND ANY ECONOMIST CAN TELL YOU THE SAME THING, WHEN RATES ARE LOW IT MEANS THE ECONOMY IS NOT DOING WELL. |
starwink | 74 |
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Finally, someone else who is not shocked that San Diego was not in this game. I completely agree Mr Bator, and love the Colts this week. The Colts at home is completely different than the Colts in Foxboro. The stadium will be rockin' and Addai is gonna run wild. Watch it happen, all the focus is on Peyton, but Joseph Addai is primed to have a big game and the Pats can't key on him because of Peyton, Harrison, Wayne, and Clark (who has become the go-to and their ability to pass effectively. The Colts will win with defense and running the football. No way Belichick doesn't drop eight, or nine guys again and let Manning dink and dunk. Addai will take up the slack and ther eis nothing New England can do. Can't blitz Manning, he will pick you apart, so you play the the run in key situations but for the most part you try to prevent the big play, same as with the Chargers, except the quarterback this week is Manning, not Rivers. Addai will rip off the yards and New England is resilient, they will make a push late, but Indy will impose its will with defense and Addai. I see 27-16 Colts...
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TomCurtisNY | 368 |
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