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I'm in agreement with the 15% number that got thrown out. I might even say slightly lower based on the math involved. 5Dimes has that final matchup at 5.88 to 1. That price is going to be low based on the chalk factor, so figure Vegas thinks it actually takes place closer to 15%, as well. There is just too much parity in the NHL to expect top seeds to walk through three rounds. You have to factor injuries, hot goalies, puck luck and the zebras. NHL playoffs is as much about luck/good breaks as it about team skill. Tell me if Crawford got hurt or Malkin got re-concussed, you'd expect either of them to be huge favs to get to the finals anymore. These teams are one injury away from a level playing field with a hot team/goalie. Flip a coin 3 times and tell me how often you get 3 heads. Thats what you are talking about with two teams needing to win three rounds. I expect each of them to get through the first round 80% of the time....but you can't assume their condition going into round two or who their opponent will be. That's the problem will predicting multiple rounds, you have no idea what you are capping 3 weeks from now. Even if they were playing another 8 seed in the next two round and you expected them to roll 80% of the time again. They still only make the final 60% of the time each. Multiply together and you get 37%. That is if each of them play 8 seeds (or worse) three rounds in a row. Your 50% number is mathematically impossible until you get to each of them having a 90% chance of winning in each round. That is a statistical impossibility in the NHL. Figure them at 80% each for the first round, 70% second round and 65% in the third round. These numbers maybe high but for the sake of crunching, figure they each have a 36% chance of making the finals. Multiply together and you are looking at 13%. You'd need to get about 8 to 1 to make that profitable.
Personally, I expect the Hawks to roll but would not be surprised at all to see the Pens fall. They have a great team of individuals who have not had time to gel as a unit. Their defense can be exploited and their goalie showed us last season just how bad he can be. A team like the Bruins, Caps or Rangers have the (goalie and the) ability to lock down an offense and enough firepower to punish a shaky goalie. The odds on the Pens to win the East right now are ridiculous.
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HeadOverHeart | 35 |
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I like your logic on the pens series. I think the leafs expose the Bruins in this series. They just don't have their team mojo right now. That isn't something you turn on at will. The Habs Sens could go either way. Montreal has been two different teams of late. If they show up at full strength they will force Ottawa into mistakes. If Price finds his form I don't think Anderson steals this series. I also wouldn't be surprised if Montreal falters and the Sens shut them down. Too close to call, I will lay off this series. I'm in disagreement with you about the Rangers Caps. Your comment about the Rangers not scoring is flawed. The Rangers were second in scoring only to the Jets after the trade deadline. They averaged over 3 goals a game and their PP has been hearing up. The only issue I see with the Rangers right now is their health. They need Brian Boyle at the dot and on the PK. They need Marc Staal frustrating OV. They need Clowe back. If they start this series healthy and stay that way, I don't see Washington winning more than 2. Holtby will need to be stellar for them to win. Unless Richards regresses and Nash disappears, Rangers roll. This team has four real lines for the first time in years. They stay out of the box, they will win. I can see the refs having a bigger impact on this series than any other. If they call it tIght, it will favor Washington. Their PP is just lethal with Green back to being himself. Don't be surprised if the Rangers win game one, that Caps start putting pressure on themselves. The first goal of each game is going to be big. The Rangers don't chase well but play very confidently when they get the lead.
Good write up. Good luck with your plays. I'll be pulling for your Hawks. |
HookEmHorns22 | 34 |
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with you on this one.
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StacyAdams | 9 |
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My initial leans when looking at tomorrows card were Habs and Jets. They are both playing well against teams that are just not keeping the puck out of their net or winning. My only concern was a montreal let down after the emotional game against the B's. Intend to look deeper at their schedule and get starting goalies but I may load up on one of these. I tend to be like you and bet one unit each game....but lately, I am getting much clearer reads and narrowing each day to one pick. The strongest play on your card IMHO is the Jets TT over but as Sharp mentioned it is very likely to be heavily juiced. I'll weigh the number with the ML and be on one of them. GL with your picks.
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CJJ307 | 19 |
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GL tonight!
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potvin | 32 |
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Well done!! Great read. |
SJSharks99 | 86 |
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So far so good, SJS.
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SJSharks99 | 86 |
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replied to
2-19-13 - Picks, goaltender, transactions, injury info and a whole lot more
in NHL Betting
Habs/NYR under 5
Habs +.5(Reg) (No Nash tonight) Tor/TB under 6 STL/SJ under 5.5 Hawks ML |
Lippsman | 39 |
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Nice Job! Nothing on Dimes yet. I would jump on this game at 5.5, let alone 6. I've been assuming it would open at 5 or a heavily juiced 5.5. With both #1s in and the way they have each been playing...heavy lean towards the under on this one. The Rangers are rounding into form and playing their shot blocking tight D game. Vegas will be leaving some value bc of the amount of overs they had early. Unless their powerplay starts to hum, I will ride Lundqvist and the Under in the games coming up.
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Dangerbay | 11 |
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I am on this because I've been chasing a Blues Under. Hoping your are correct. Bastards cost me a handful when I chased their 4 game home stand. Good luck!!
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SJSharks99 | 86 |
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Bos/Buff over 5.5
Pitt ML Pitt/NJ over 5 |
Lippsman | 19 |
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edm/col under 5.5 -130 Bruins/Sabres over 5.5 -110Penguins -160 NJ/Pitt over 5 -140 |
HookEmHorns22 | 79 |
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Canucks.
no carry over from last season on the leaderboard?
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Lippsman | 33 |
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added Hawks
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Lippsman | 31 |
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Dall/Minn O5
Edm/Van O5.5
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Lippsman | 31 |
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Best of luck tonight and the rest of the season!
with ya on the Yotes and Canes
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HookEmHorns22 | 65 |
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Carolina +110 1U
Yotes +110 1U Nash (-1/2) -118 3U Car/Fla O5.5 +130 1U NYR +120 1U NYR TT O2.5 -105 1U Futures: Karlsson Norris +400 1U Nash Hart +1400 .5U Krieder Calder +1400 1U Granlund Calder +1400 1U Cup finals: NYR/STL +3550 NYR/CHI +3825 FYI on 49ers tomorrow at -3 |
SnakeEyes88 | 1 |
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ok...I'll give you BOS at -180. How do you make a pick before the line is released? Did you happen to look at when the last time Bruins beat the Rags at home? Lundqvist got "lit up" twice all of last season...good luck with that.
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Covers | 6 |
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KIngs and over looking good!! I'd like to see Marty give up 6 tonight.... |
Polar_Bear | 145 |
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on both with you
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tone79 | 15 |
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