Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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MIA
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MoneyShot | 12 |
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Both Cain's striking and chin have always been overrated. JDS KOing him in the first wasn't a fluke. I like Frank's chances on the feet and on the ground. To be fair though he has shown weakness on his back against wrestlers.
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MoneyShot | 11 |
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Haven't bet in a while after going on a bit of a rough streak. I've changed a few things up though, most notably my unit size. This should allow me to get pretty good profits off fights I'm sure of, as opposed to losing bets because 1 fighter shits the bed off a parlay. My units are now 100$. Also I now keep notes on every fighter as opposed to just watching the fighters I like. This will allow me to spot value in a number of match ups.
I probably won't be laying any bets tonight. Just here to express my thoughts for anyone who is still interested. I will go through and actually tally my record the next time I lay an actual bet. Falcao > Paraisy Simple. If you've seen Falcao fight you should know he will most definitely hold an advantage in the stand up, which means Paraisy can only win this fight by bringing it to the ground. Falcao's TDD isn't stellar but Parasiy possesses no explosion in his shot. Also Falcao has been quite careful in the past to play tentative enough to avoid being put on the ground against wrestlers (Harris). Assuming Falcao does get taken down though, which actually happened against a non good wrestler in his fight with Neto, Falcao like most Brazilians ins't lost on his back. In fact he possess what appears to be above average sweeps. This coupled with Paraisy's lackluster stand up means there probably won't be any upsets pulled tonight with regards to this match. Just as a warning though, Falcao does possess health issues. He had a heart attack just this past November, which is quite rare for someone his age. This and the fact that he looked to be getting gassed early in his fight with Neto, which was just 2 months before, should be cause for some worry. I work nights and just got home so assuming I don't fall asleep I'll post more leans as I get them. |
Smok30nTh15 | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Malamadre: be real...struve has far more skill. Honestly I think both guys have atrocious stand up. I rode with Herman bc Struve has demonstrated time and time again both that he was a weak chin and that he can't properly utilize his reach. Also peopled seemed to high on Herman.
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Smok30nTh15 | 7 |
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I took it. Celtics had the Bulls tomorrow to look forward too. Also Smartbet's favorite referee Brothers was on the game. This time he didn't have to do much though.
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shooter15 | 4 |
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And the losing streak continues. Herman shits the bed against one oft the worst UFC HWs.
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Smok30nTh15 | 7 |
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I had huge fucking write ups for this event but lost it due to an internet bug. Thus all I will say is that my record thus far is still negative and that I'm only making 1 play today, which will be a 2U 3 man parlay of Herman, Ellenberger, and Miocic.
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Smok30nTh15 | 7 |
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Right before I punched in the Lakers I switched to the ML, partly for the reasons above and partly because if the Lakers really are that bad on the road then 3-4 points won't make a difference.
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L2408 | 16 |
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No doubt he was getting lit up by Daley but Kampmann has a bad habit of doing what a lot of fighters with good chins do, which is getting into brawls, even if their styles don't suit it. I'm not trying to say he wasn't losing the fight at that point because he definitely was, I just think he could have came back.
As for this matchup my first lean is Kampmann. I have been burned lately though by thinking that the fighters I pick will engage in a "smart" fight. Now I just assume the worst case scenario, thus this match really is a pick em for me. Kampmann has the advantage everywhere but on the feet and even there the fight should be a lot closer than what people who are not familiar with Kampmann would expect. I seriously want to pick him, especially since he's a dog but I don't know if I'm letting my personal bias (I really like Kampmann alot) affect my decision making skills. |
TheBau5 | 14 |
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Any reason not to take LA? I feel the only reason the line isn't more in Orlando's favor is due to the Clipper's horrible history with the magic; however, doesn't Orlando's recent issues completely negate this consideration?
Also the Clippers won't have to worry about looking ahead, as they don't play any legit competition until the 10th when they face Philly.
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Smok30nTh15 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by The_HOFF: I took Alves when he opened at -110. Kampmann has had trouble with big strikers ie. Marquardt and Daley. To be fair the Daley stoppage was premature, though the Marquardt one was pretty legit. Both fights illustrate what I said about Kampmann's durability though. Even after eating a head kick from Marquardt and multiple shots in quick succession afterwards, Kampmann was never fully out.
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TheBau5 | 14 |
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The over would be the better bet in this fight. Kampmann is extremely durable, so even if you think Alves wins I doubt he finishes.
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TheBau5 | 14 |
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Initial Thoughts:
Riddle vs Martinez - Riddle is one of my favorite fighters ever since his season on TuF. That being said, he has some holes in his game, most notably his stand up. He's also one of those wrestlers who doesn't posses a remarkably good shot. What he does have, however, is a remarkably good chin and perseverance. Martinez has a good looking record but he's mostly fought bums. Even worse is he's a extremely small for WW, standing at 5'7 and small enough to fight at 145, as evidenced in his bout against Reis. Riddle on the other hand is one of the biggest WWs around. I wish I had more info on Martinez but seeing as I don't I won't be making a play on this fight. Riddle has fought the tougher competition and if worst comes to worst could just lay on Matinez for the win but as already stated I'm laying off on this match. As an interesting aside though, it should be noted that Riddle would be a solid fighter to take the over on in almost any situation, as his stand up doesn't look to be improving any time soon and he therefore poses no threat on the feet. In addition, his extremely durable chin and wrestling abilities allow him to survive matches in which he is outclassed in virtually every aspect of the game, such as the case with his last match against Benoist. Brown vs. Cope - Neither man is good. Brown gets a lot of love from fans and I'm not sure why. His stand up looks pretty decent at times but he literally is a .50 fighter and even if you're sure he's more talented than his opponent Brown will always find a way to lose. Perhaps I'm biased as it was brown who cost me my 300 unit 12 man parlay a few events past but these are my initial thoughts on this match up. That being said, gun to the head I'd choose Brown. Poirier vs. Holloway - Interesting match up because Holloway could be a future contender. As for Dustin, he looks nasty but his stand up reminds me of Shalorus in that he throws nothing but hooks to the point of exhaustion. Unlike Shalrous; however, Dustin can actually land his hooks and has stood toe to toe with some decent strikers. Dustin will also utilize takedowns if needed, as demonstrated in his match up against Grispi and has some pretty decent jits, as evidenced by his subbing of Garza. In short Dustin isn't a 1 dimensional fighter but he is very 1D in the stand up. I have yet to look at any of Holloway's fights yet but from his highlight vid it looks like he'll be able to hold his own on the feet with Poirier. In fact, I think his stand up is better but that's a pretty strong statement considering I haven't seen any of his fights yet. I think this will ultimately come down to who has better grappling skills, as if Poirier is feeling it on the feet he will attempt to take the fight to the mat. This is definitely a match to watch whether or not you have money riding on it. Herman vs. Starks - Fade the fuck out of Starks. If I do make a play on this card this will probably be it. I faded Jacoby last week on Fox 2 solely because both he and Starks looked absolutely horrible in their debuts inside the Octagon. Starks has virtually no stand up and on the ground very little jitz ability. He's a wrestler, so you always have to wonder about him getting the nod should the fight go to decision but from what I remember he shoots very little if at all. Herman I believe will have the jits to sub Starks on the ground and he will most definitely have the stand up to whoop his ass on the feet. Kosceck vs. Pierce - People underestimate the hell out of Koscheck's wrestling ability but that's because he rarely uses it. Instead Koscheck relies on his very 1D stand up, which boils down to him just looking for a 1 punch knockout over and over again. Pierce should have much prettier stand up but I don't know if he is entirely skilled enough to handle Kosheck should this fight remain on the feet. I lean towards Koscheck and this one of those fights I'd normally stick in a parlay after rewatching footage from both fighters. Nelson vs. Werdum - Nelson has great value here as essentially Werdum will do nothing but look to flop on his back should he not like the stand up. Roy, however, is very good on ground and is a long time black belt and quarter finalist in the 2003 ADCC championships. People who like to bet dogs should give this match a bit of a look up. Diaz vs. condit - This is a match up that has everyone divided. I like Condit and think he's good but even whilst questioning Diaz's competition how could you fade the guy? Straight up I can see Condit's stand up causing problems for Diaz but on the ground I seriously see Diaz owning Condit. However, as everyone knows the Diaz bros have shit wrestling ability. Gun to the head I'd pick Diaz. As a bettor analyzing which fighter has better value though, I'd pick Condit all the way. This fight should be a pick up, not having Condit as almost a 200+ underdog. The rest of the matches - I have to watch footage on those fighters but since I don't really feel like playing much on this card I probably won't get around to it.
BOL everyone. |
Smok30nTh15 | 3 |
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After last week, which was horrible, I will probably make few if any plays. But, this is a very interesting card coming up with a lot of potential future superstars.
Before continuing: Quote Originally Posted by Smok30nTh15:
Thing started off good then went bad. I suppose a quick recap of my betting history is in order if I'm to establish any credibility after this disastrous night. Long story short is that I'm quite new to the world of gambling. I decided to start betting on fights because I was able to predict a large number of events quite accurately. I figured I could just as easily bet a buck here and there and make money for watching fights, as opposed to watching solely for entertainment purposes and making nothing. Until recently, I usually bet on one or 2 fights a card at most and no parlays. However, not to long ago, at UFC 139, I made about 40+ units using guess what...parlays! I also was one fight away from hitting a 12 man parlay and earning an additional 300+ units on the very same event. The good thing about parlays is that they provide monstrous payouts and the obvious bad thing is that their hard to hit. I don't plan to abandon them, however, unless things start to go disastrously bad. In addition to this forum I attend mmashare quite often and we regularly participate in a tournament called the CRI, which is essentially just a pick em type event where the member with the most correct fights wins the tournament. In the Last 4 tournaments I have been runner up twice, UFC 139 & UFC 142, both times predicting every single match up save one correctly, though at UFC 142 my incorrect pick was Eric Silva, who actually won the fight but was controversially DQed (so in effect I had a perfect record for that card). My name on that forum is MannyFresh! And, I am prominent member there; therefore, for anyone who is interested this can all be verified. Anyway the point of this is to say that I believe my gambling style, parlays or no, over the long haul will ultimately be profitable. In fact, it it has been very profitable for me already. I just haven't been here to document it. As luck would have it, I happened to join and start posting plays during a slump. I wouldn't blame anyone for not following me atm or even fading me but this essentially is the reasoning behind my betting style. I will be back next week for 143 and I will comb over my plays with a fine-toothed comb. Gratz to all the cappers who made out bandits this week and best of luck to everyone on the next card as well. So, that's a summary of the situation. Again I wouldn't advise tailing me but I will nonetheless continue to post plays in order to establish a record here.
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Smok30nTh15 | 3 |
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Thing started off good then went bad. I suppose a quick recap of my betting history is in order if I'm to establish any credibility after this disastrous night. Long story short is that I'm quite new to the world of gambling. I decided to start betting on fights because I was able to predict a large number of events quite accurately. I figured I could just as easily bet a buck here and there and make money for watching fights, as opposed to watching solely for entertainment purposes and making nothing. Until recently, I usually bet on one or 2 fights a card at most and no parlays. However, not to long ago, at UFC 139, I made about 40+ units using guess what...parlays! I also was one fight away from hitting a 12 man parlay and earning an additional 300+ units on the very same event. The good thing about parlays is that they provide monstrous payouts and the obvious bad thing is that their hard to hit. I don't plan to abandon them, however, unless things start to go disastrously bad. In addition to this forum I attend mmashare quite often and we regularly participate in a tournament called the CRI, which is essentially just a pick em type event where the member with the most correct fights wins the tournament. In the Last 4 tournaments I have been runner up twice, UFC 139 & UFC 142, both times predicting every single match up save one correctly, though at UFC 142 my incorrect pick was Eric Silva, who actually won the fight but was controversially DQed (so in effect I had a perfect record for that card). My name on that forum is MannyFresh! And, I am prominent member there; therefore, for anyone who is interested this can all be verified. Anyway the point of this is to say that I believe my gambling style, parlays or no, over the long haul will ultimately be profitable. In fact, it it has been very profitable for me already. I just haven't been here to document it. As luck would have it, I happened to join and start posting plays during a slump. I wouldn't blame anyone for not following me atm or even fading me but this essentially is the reasoning behind my betting style. I will be back next week for 143 and I will comb over my plays with a fine-toothed comb. Gratz to all the cappers who made out bandits this week and best of luck to everyone on the next card as well.
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Smok30nTh15 | 18 |
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I will most likely have to go to work before I see if my first few plays hit. To everyone who has followed me though congratz on our first win. We're up 2.16 units so far tonight.
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Smok30nTh15 | 18 |
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I think Rashad will win but he has had a long layoff, not counting Tito. Davis has had a decent layoff due to injury himself though, so this should even things out.
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sharpstick | 23 |
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I'm also tailing CMT on his Rashad Evans prop. Sharp play by him on that one.
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Smok30nTh15 | 18 |
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5th play - It's taken 2-3 days but I've finally been able to download the UFC 137 unaired prelims, which contains footage of Camozzi, who I've actually seen fight numerous times but was a bit dusty on, and Jacoby. All I have to say is holy shit! Jacoby is fade material and not just him but Clifford Starks as well, who btw is fighting next week!
4 units on Camozzi to win 2.16.
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Smok30nTh15 | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by whipton: Jon Olav Einemo went up to +152 lol i was wrong I got nervous and played it at 140. You weren't completely wrong though, I'm pretty sure the line dropped to 130 at some point. |
whipton | 39 |
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