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Toledo all the way tonight. BSU gave it away last week. My number went from 3 back to 2.5 even though 80%+ on NIU. This looks like classic bait coming from the wise men. I also heard it was rumored Money Floyd just placed a wager on Toledo. Does that guy lose? Taking Toledo but just not positive if I take the points or the ML
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I am not 1 to get completely hung up on the weather but I live in IN and it's down right nasty out there between rain and the wind gusts. I've learned that wind actually factors in more than rain due to the kicking and passing games. We all know Ball St is a passing team. The under and Central look like an early lean to me. 21 is a lot considering Central's recent success in this matchup. Even if it stops raining the field will be slop. It's done nothing but rain on and off for the past week. Again, pay more attention to what the wind is doing though.
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Quad! Magor props on the ML. I didn't have the sack but took team total for the Bears. Great score bud!
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There's some things I haven't seen mentioned that I would like to add. As bad as the Bears D is at times, never discount their ability to take the ball away. You don't think they'll be salivating to strip these inexperienced receivers for GB?
Also, special teams. This has been a staple for the Bears whether it be in returns or Robby Platinum. I think the biggest thing that stands out above all in black and white is the fact this is the biggest rivalry in football and GB is double digit chalk facing a team coming off a bye and needing a win. I think the Bears show up tonight with no Cutler to return the turnover favor. Spotting double digits in a division game just doesn't make sense in the NFL. My plays for this game would be Bears +10 Bears O20.5 and a possible play on a DST score for giggles. It seems like there's always at least 1 in these prime time plays. GLTA |
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All I am gonna say is if it looks too good to be true than it is. I've been bet on many IU games and know little about Minn being a Purdue Alum. IU rolls huge. This looks like a trap game like USC tonight. 28-7 at half IU
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I ride Oregon 1H every week with the exception of last week. That was a bad spot for Oregon sandwiched between Wash and UCLA. I'm back on it this week. Oregon D doesn't get nearly enough attention and see them attacking the inexperienced O-line of UCLA. UCLA comes off a punishing, physical Stanford team only to have to deal with the speed of Oregon. Oregon has all the motivation in the world coming out as #3 in the BCS. They saw what FSU's route did for them. Their season hangs in the balance in these next 2 games. They have a long week before the Thurs showdown with Stanford with nothing to look ahead to besides a national spotlight game featuring them and Mariota at home against a ranked conference opponent. Not to mention, they get their #1 rb back. I like the Ducks early and often. They will score regardless of the opponent and have to think the inexperienced o-line is gonna take a bit to get some continuity for UCLA. I like Oregon 1H -14 against a UCLA team that has had 1H struggles
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Quote Originally Posted by kingtomaz85: what are nickols and c notes, sir? Nickel = $500 U.S. C-note aka Dime = $1k U.S. |
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I'll let everyone in on a little secret. Oregon has covered every 1H line this year and all but 1 or 2 last year. I have literally taken every Ducks 1H since early last year and it's payed off BIG. I close my eyes and lay 20-30 points and sit back with ease by the mid 2nd qtr. I don't see any reason why I'd stop now. Starters get pulled at half and then you're not quite sure what will happen. Take the easy money.
Ducks 1H minus whatever |
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Admittedly, I don't know much about either team besides the obvious but I do know how ranked teams fair on the road as heavy chalk Thursdays.
"think twice about backing the Tigers as road favorites in this affair, as they’ve lost nine of 11 when featured on ESPN Thursday Night games, but seven of those losses have come against ranked foes." The Wolfpack have proven victorious against a Top 10 team at home in each of the previous two seasons, but this team is very young heading into Week 4 of the 2013 college football campaign. I'll look at this closer but these were my 1st 2 thoughts when I saw the heavy lean on Clemson early AND the line moving DOWN. Hmmm... |
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Quote Originally Posted by sjon412: Honestly the only reason I would want to take the Steelers is to fade the public. Public all in on saints and niners yesterday and what happened there? The thing is I cant find any reason, other than I still believe in the Steelers D, that Pitt keeps this close. I see Cincy's front seven getting tons of pressure on Ben. HELP A BROTHA OUT! give me some insight on why I should fade the public and take the steelers I agree. I faded the public on Bolts/Texans last week based solely on that reasoning (and Hous is terrible in the spotlight). I don't think these teams are that much different than last year. Pitt didn't have an all-pro line last year and both games were played in the teens. I think this is 1 of those games where you have to just go against the grain. Everyone is all over Cincy and the line isn't budging. I'll take the points in a low scoring game. At worst, I see Pitt getting a late back door cover. We see how Cincy collapsed last week late. For what it's worth, the simulator has Pitt covering almost 70% and winning SU at almost 50/50. Steelers 11-1-1 in Cincy also has to say something. Cincy wins but there won't be a blowout in a tough division game. Look at yesterday's divison games where the dog had no business covering but found a way. (Minn, TB, Jets, Hou) |
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Under 188.5. Most of the public money is leaning on the over and the line is moving down begging for over money. I LOVE the reverse line move. Besides that, both these teams are drained. It's been a long season and the gas tanks are on E. I foresee both teams having multiple minute scoring droughts and nerves showing early on some missed shots. I've not exactly been impressed with either team at the stripe what little they've been there. Both teams have done a descent job of not putting the other in the bonus as well. Refs will let them play tonight. I don't see a lot of the tic-tac stuff being called nor the flops. All that being said, under for the LARGE
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As a long time Bears homer, The Bears have been torched by Steve Smith in previous matchups. I realize he isn't the same at the end of his career but he's owned Chicago for whatever reasons. This could easily be viewed as a trap game this week after a big division win on Monday night. Cutler's injury has to be concerning as that was a violent hit. I don't expect to see a very explosive offense. On the other hand, Cam could have one of his better games of the year. The db's often have their back to the ball in the cover 2 Chi is known for having. This will leave Cam open for some huge runs. I pretty much called last week's game although I was a little high on the score. Detroit's careless turnovers and dropped passes contributed as they had their chances. Det got their late garbage td to cover and could very well see the same happening this week. The Bears still don't have the offense to keep the pedal to the metal and get very conservative when they have a lead still depending on the D to close out games. Anything over 7 is just too many points in my opinion although I am concerned with Carolina's recent turnover struggles. I've not seen much of Carolina but don't like the Bears to cover by more than 2 scores in this spot.
I expect an ugly, low scoring affair. Chi 20 Car 13
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I'll start with the Lions this week. They have been a notoriously bad road team and don't play well in Chicago. I keep reading of their big win last week but did they really win or did Philly lose? Philly was up by 10 in the 4th if I'm not mistaken and had 2 careless turnovers that had little to do with the Lions. A much better coached Bears team will not lose if leading late.
The Lions have 1 weapon. The Bears front 4 has the ability to get after statue Stafford without having to blitz allowing them to concentrate on Johnson. Clearly this is the formula that other teams have figured out because his stats clearly don't reflect his talent. The Lions are gonna be a 1 dimensional team allowing the front to pin their ears back. There will be no running game. Lions are 1 of the worst on O while Bears #1 on D. As far as Lions D, we all know of the secondary issues and their front just hasn't looked the same this year. On the other hand, the Bears have been a sack and turnover machine. If you think it's luck, you're dead wrong. It's a trademark of this team and has been since the Super Bowl team. However, I will admit the td's have been fortuitous but they definitely know what to do with the ball and try as much as possible to improve field position if not score. Advantage - Bears The Bears will be without Jeffery for a few weeks but do get Earl Bennett back who is Jay's favorite 3rd down option since their days in Vandy. He's a big possession receiver and great compliment to Marshall. Forte continues to get healthy and takes the offense wherever he goes. It starts and ends with him and I expect to see a lot of touches as the Bears aren't looking to get in a shootout. Cutler and Marshall continue to get better each week and Jay looks to be heating up like he did last year before the injury. The Bears front has also looked better with each passing week opening holes for Forte and giving Cutler enough time. The sideline shove match looks to be behind them. Advantage - slight edge Bears do to the balance. The Lions have inflated stats due to playing from behind early and often. Special teams edge definitely goes to the Bears. They have the better kicker and I've been calling for a Hester td in my last 2 previous Bears posts. After the Lions showing in Tennessee, this may finally be the week. The Bears racked up over 200 return yards in last year's meeting in Chicago helping the D flip the field. Lovie heads into his 11th MNF game as the Bears' coach looking to improve to 9-2 after picking up his 8th in Dallas a few weeks back. The Lions gave Lovie 1 of his 2 losses last year in Detroit. The meeting in Soldier Field last year was a a complete beat down. Stafford had 4 picks despite over 300 yards passing. The Lions didn't get in the end zone until there was 5 mins left in the game. Cutler was 11/19 and Bennett grabbed 6 for 88. The Bears rushed for over a 100 as the carries were spread out primarily between Forte and Barber. I loved the Bears at 5 but not nearly as much at 6.5. I am actually leaning toward the under 47. The offense is coming off a bye which I think may hurt their rhythm in the passing game. The Bears won't be able to stretch the field quite as much without Jeffrey. I expect them to come in with an emphasis on the ground game to open up the play action. They will take their shots deep with Marshall but I look for more of a ball control offense with Forte and Bennett. The D should have another good game. Johnson will get his but I expect some big sacks and a couple turnovers to neutralize the passing game. I expect to see something like a 23-17 or 23-20 score with the Bears winning. I think they control the game but fear a late garbage td leaving a backdoor cover for the Lions and possibly over. The Lions will be pass heavy by the 4th. I have the Bears in my suicide and will most likely tease the Bears and under.
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Quote Originally Posted by Schumonty: Oak has only scored more than 14 points once this year. I'd say this normally may be a trap game but Atl is going into the bye the following week so shouldn't be looking ahead. If anything, they will want to remain undefeated and retain momentum. It's hard to go against Matty Ice at home but the line staying a shade under 10 seems to beg for Oak action. I think the 1st half determines this game. If Atl jumps out early, game over. Palmer has no deep threat or arm any longer. I have Atl in my suicide this week and will stay away. I just can't put money on the Raiders and their penalties/mistakes. Nor do I care to lay chalk of 7+ in the NFL. GLTA Correction: Begs for Atl action.
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Oak has only scored more than 14 points once this year. I'd say this normally may be a trap game but Atl is going into the bye the following week so shouldn't be looking ahead. If anything, they will want to remain undefeated and retain momentum. It's hard to go against Matty Ice at home but the line staying a shade under 10 seems to beg for Oak action. I think the 1st half determines this game. If Atl jumps out early, game over. Palmer has no deep threat or arm any longer. I have Atl in my suicide this week and will stay away. I just can't put money on the Raiders and their penalties/mistakes. Nor do I care to lay chalk of 7+ in the NFL. GLTA
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Reverse line move, revenge game at home and getting 1 of their best defensive players back. For once I disagree with Vue here. I've watched a lot of Cleveland games this year and they aren't as bad as everyone thinks. Maybe they finally put a complete game together and get off the goose egg this week. Small play Browns.
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits: Ravens are dominate at home, I don't see why the cowboys will win, if no other team can win there? Last time I checked, they just had to cover. Dallas coming off a bye and terrible showing on national tv. Ravens should have lost last week. I like the points here. Dallas D keeps them in it. The game comes down to turnovers which is the scariest part. More thought needed but leading Cowgirls as of now.
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Vue and Quad, you are 2 of the more respectable people that post under the threads on here. I'm w/ the both of you today. Baltimore plays down to competition and I'm getting the full 7 at my book. I learned my lesson taking Balt as RF's last year and they killed me all season long. Also, Balt is 4-18 ATS after back to back SU wins. Everything says Chiefs in this 1 despite how bad they've looked.
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The Giants don't cover at home. 0-2 this year and 2-4 last year before getting hot on their playoff run. I wouldn't say they are exactly hot right now and have a beat up secondary that even the Browns can complete a few plays against. The Browns had a lot of dropped balls last week that killed them. Despite it, they kept things close on a Ravens team that is better than the Giants right now. Giants got torn up on the ground last week because of an undisciplined pass rush that opens up the edge for Richardson. Cleveland stays competitive for most of the game and at worst gets a backdoor cover in the 4th. Vegas continues to expand on public money that loves to bet against the Browns.
Giants win by 8 or less. Browns cash at the window again
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Under all day.
Washington runs the ball under Shanahan's west coast O. They lead the league in rushing and both teams are top 10 in TOP. Everyone looks at the qb's but that's not how this 1 plays out. Both teams rank high in red zone efficiency (which is usually the difference in over/under) but I don't see there being enough time on the clock to get there. Also, Skins' kicker missed 3 last week almost costing me the over last week. Both teams are close to 50/50 when it comes to run/pass. They score points but scoring drives will consume a lot of clock. As an added tidbit, Skins avg yds/per drive ranks towards the bottom at just over 26yds/per. That's a lot of running and punting. Taking under before kick as the number is rising at my book.
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