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PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Blue Jays UNDER 80.5 Ws write-up:

When you have a big amount of question marks you'd be lucky for half of them to go your way. I think the Blue Jays have a plethora of question marks and need at least 75% of them to go their way just to be .500 this year. 

Their lineup, offensively, looks pretty good on paper, but thats before factoring in the question marks in Reyes, Bautista, Lind, Melky Cabrera, and Brett Lawrie. Between injures and suspensions over half their lineup have either spent extension time of their careers on the DL, suspended, or just flat out inconsistent. They will put up runs, but thats not nearly enough to compete in the AL East.

The main reason for my wager is their (horrendous) pitching. The AL East is LOADED with hitting, so if you can't pitch, you flat out won't compete. Their rotation right now looks like Dickey, Buehrle, Happ, Hutchinson, and Morrow. So a one-year-39-year-old-wonder, an unmotivated over the hill Buehrle, Happ who's been getting rocked in spring, Hutchinson off of Tommy John, and Morrow off injury. Good luck in the AL East with that and without much quality backups available in the minors. Their bullpen is solid at the back with Janssen and Santos, although Santos has been hurt consistently last few years and Janssen battled injury this spring. Besides them, Cecil is their off an All-Star year, and then they have a bunch of dirt. 

I've watched baseball for year, and if theres one thing I have learned about the AL East during that time is that you cannot survive without pitching. Throw that in with an inconsistent lineup (which is also weak at the bottom w Navarro and Goins) and I will gladly surrender my money if that team plays .500 or better baseball. 

More to come. 
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Adding: 

Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 80.5 Wins -115 3u
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Yeah pretty trustworthy, he's got a pretty extensive clientele so I'm not worried:

Gunna be diving into a couple more totals today as I study for a big fantasy draft tonight as well. 
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Asomugha-

Guess you didn't read, but I said my local gave DL protection so if they get hurt the bet is void. And that's the only way none of those 4 will win.

Think I'm done w player props now though, solely focusing on win totals.
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Not sure, I'm focuses more on the NL first for win totals

Added: Pujols O27.5 HRs 3u (max) play
YankeesAllStar
YankeesAllStar
Where in the world do you see that price? I would be all over that. Fernandez is a complete stud (my Miami fandom aside). Just check his 2H #s for proof and he's only 21. No doubt you have value at 10/1. Wish I could take that.
Europa
Europa
Good luck, like the Dodgers one as I see that division being extremely tough. I'll put a flyer out on the Diamondbacks to win that division. Love their team. 
Really like what the Angels have done w their pitching. Should be much improved. Plus I expect a monster year from Albert. 

GLGL
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Asomugha-

Sorry you feel that say, but comparing a basketball team off two consecutive titles and a baseball team is a terrible comparison. Two completely different sports, mentalities, and situations. The Heat are pretty much guaranteed to be the playoffs where the Cardinals aren't. Regular season in baseball is much more important than in basketball. 

Sjsharks-

Playinplot@aol.com
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Cubs UNDER 70 Wins -115 3u (max) bet

This team flat out sucks. None of their young prospects are ready to come up to the big leagues this year and make a dramatic impact. Their lineup looks about the same as last year (still terrible). But the lineup is the least of their worries. There are two main reasons I love this wager:

1) The rest of their division could easily have winning records (although I think they all do except Pittsburg). And the much more important reason:

2) the Cubs pitching SUCKS. Their rotation right now consists of Samarjza, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and James McDonald. Travis Wood overachieved in 2013 and I'd be shocked to see him replicate it. The rest are all complete question marks and they have no quality depth behind them. Their bullpen is even worse though. They signed Jose Veras (HAHAHAHAHAHAHA) to be their closer. Can't be worse than Marmol tho.... This rotation and bullpen have too many question marks to count, and mixing that with being in a division with great hitting, this team is a recipe for disaster.

 I think they have a worse year than last and end with 62 wins fighting the Astros and Twins for worst team in the majors. 
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Pending:

Cardinals O91.5 Ws -110 Fernandez O12.5 Ws -120, and Wacha O11.5 Ws -125 all 3u (max) plays

Adding Braun O27.5 HRs 3u

Braun, just like Fernandez and Wacha bets, is DL protected (bet is voided if ever placed on DL).

Braun is out to prove himself after the how steroid cloud that is over his head. He has hit more than 27 HRs in 6 of his last 7 seasons. He has had 10 plate appearances so far in spring: has 2 HRs and has reached base in 9 of those 10 appearances. I think he has a monster year this year trying to prove himself. If he doesn't hit the DL, he should easily hit 28 bombs. If he does, bet is voided.

Locking in all my favorites (3u ones) now. They all won't be these big of plays. Got another (team total) coming soon.
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Asomugha-

I will eventually get into those, but I'm focused first on write ups for the teams I am going to bet on. Just give me a little time.

SjSharks-

I would definitely be interested. Would think that would be a lot of fun. Message me with more details if you don't mind.
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
St. Louis Cardinals OVER 91.5 -110 Wins 3u (max) play 

Locking this one in now as it is my favorite and I cannot see getting a better number. This team won 97 games last year, and I will tell you why I think they are better.

My projected lineup: 1) Carpenter 3B 2) Wong 2B 3) Holliday LF 4) Craig RF 5) Adams 1B 6) Molina C 7) Peralta SS 8) Bourjos CF

I think this lineup (hitting wise) is better than their lineup last year. Yes, they lost Beltran, but if you remember in the playoffs with the surge of Matt Adams they had an extra hitter that they didn't have a spot for (ended up Craig as DH in WS when he was back from his injury). Also, I love what they did to their middle infield. I believe that Wong (one of their top prospects) wins the 2B job out of spring as he fits perfectly into their 2 hole.  I also really like the Peralta signing. Those 2 are great offensive upgrades over Kozma and Schumaker. This lineup is now loaded top to bottom. 
DIsclaimer: I would be dumb to ignore the impact on their defense though. Craig will be a below average RF'er and well as Peralta at SS, but it really isn't much of a concern to me. 

My projected SP: 1) Wainwright 2) Miller 3) Wacha 4) Kelly 5) Lynn

This is what I really love about this team. IMO, the best rotation in the majors. Kelly quietly put together a great end of the season. Lynn struggled towards the end as well as Miller to an extent, but that doesn't worry me since both were young arms who had never thrown that many innings in a season before. It is pretty common for them to break down a bit. If this rotation stays relatively healthy I think the Cardinals have the best record in the league. They also can afford to take it easy with Jaime Garcia coming off an arm injury by easing him back into action. 

Depth: It is one thing to stack your starters, but it a whole another thing to have depth. This is crucial in the long MLB season and I think the Cardinals have some of the best depth in the league. Their bench will consist of Mark Ellis, Jon Jay, Descalso, Cruz, and Robinson (not to mention their top prospect Tavares who is waiting to steal CF from Bourjos/Jay). This team is oozing with talents and options. 

Bullpen: This team showed in the playoffs how good of young arms they have in the pen between Rosenthal, Martinez, Siegriest, and Maness. Throw it specialist Choate and Neshek as well as a possibly of Motte coming back from Tommy John and this pen is loaded.

Another little reason I like this play is that i expect the division to be worse as a whole as I believe both the Pirates and Reds will regress and not have nearly as good of years as they did last year.

In conclusion, I think a 97 win from a year ago improved in overall talent and in depth. I fully expect the Cardinals to be the best team in baseball this year and go over the century mark in wins. Normally I wouldn't be so confident on any total over 90 wins, but the pitching this team possesses mixed with their extraordinary depth allows me to think otherwise in this instance. 

Take whatever you want from this write-up. Just informing the reasons I made the play. Hope this helps some of you out. More to come. Cheers.
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Buff-

I only use locals and they hung pitchers win totals last night. Had to pounce as I consider those two plays almost risk free as I think they both easily go over that total if they don't get hurt. If they get hurt and go on the DL at any point, I get my money back. 
Wacha is already juiced to -150 today lol. That line was a joke. Had to lock em in at those prices last night.

As for win totals, I continue to monitor them. As we get closer I will start to lock em in. If anyone wants an opinion on a team just ask and I'll try to do a write up in my spare time as it will help all of us.

Cheers
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Locked in two player props already:

Both are voided if the player reaches the DL at any time.

Jose Fernandez O12.5 Ws -120

Michael Wacha O11.5 Ws -125


Both 3u

Plenty more to come. 
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Pirates Over/Under 84.5 wins

Coming off a fantastic and over-achieving 94 win season, this Pirates team looks almost identical to last years team. 

Projected lineup: 1) LF Marte 2) SS Mercer 3) CF McCutchen 4) 3B Alvarez 5) 2B Walker 6) C Martin 7) 1B Sanchez 8) RF Tabata 

Projected rotation: 1) Liriano 2) Cole 3) Wandy Rodriguez 4) Morton 5) Volquez 

The rotation has the potential to be extremely good. The question is, can they stay healthy? Minus Cole, who's too young to really tell, all of the other arms have history of injuries. If healthy, this rotation has the potential to be lethal, but that's a big IF. Can't remember a time Liriano put together back to back healthy/productive years, and this team isn't the same without him. Nonetheless, Cole has the potential to be a stud. Wandy sitting on a contract year will look to have a big year, while Volquez will look to get his career back on track after an awful 2013 season. They have a young arm in Tailleson sitting in the minors who has big potential, so keep an eye on him. 

The lineup is nothing special, but there's no doubting how good McCutchen is. He will carry this offense. Young 1B Lambo will need to breakout and claim the 1B job as Sanchez just won't cut it. Marte and Alvarez building off their break out years last year will decide how this offense ultimately performs. 

The biggest part of this team that I question is the bullpen. There is no arguing Grilli and Melancon are coming off of career years pretty much out of no where. Can they duplicate last years magic this year? I personally think there is no way they do, and I think that will really hurt this team seeing how many close games they won last year. 

It just seems to me that this team needs a lot of good fortune just to live up to last years expectations. Plus, I think every team in their division has improved except the Reds, who will still be pretty good. 

To me it is under or no play. I lean under and will continue to monitor them in the upcoming weeks. 



PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Asomugha:

Idk what books you use, but normal juice for me is -115 so I don't see how going 3-2 is just getting my money back. 
And those are just leans. Not sure how many I am going to play yet, but I'm a huge MLB fan and have been following each roster closely throughout the offseason  and will continue to leading up to the season. We each can have our own opinions though. 

As for the Pirates and Nationals, I have some free time now so I will give you my breakdown of each now starting with the Pirates. 
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Placing futures on win totals is something I really wanted to dig into further this year. Last year I started a similar thread, but it was more dedicated to player props and I didn't really dissect team totals until right before the season. I've started looking at these since they opened offshore few weeks ago. My local just released them so it's time to really start digging in.

Last year I went 3-2 on them winning Astros U, Mets U, and Royals O, while losing Mariners O and Marlins O.

Similar to last year, if you guys want an opinion on any team I will try a to give you a pretty detailed write-up on that team as it will help both of us to get a better grasp on the team.

I believe I lost the value on the plays I really liked w the original openers so I will probably restrain myself from locking anything in until a week before the season bc of injuries unless I anticipate a move coming. 

Early leans are: Dbacks O81.5, Braves O87.5, Orioles U81.5, Cubs U70, Indians O80.5, Marlins O69.5, Astros U62.5, Angels O86.5, Royals U82, Brewers O80, Twins U70.5, Mets U74, Yanks O87, Pirates U84.5, Giants O86.5, Cards O91, Nationals U89.5, and Blue Jays U80.5. 

All subject to change as I analyze more and lines more. Look forward to some good conversation so we all can learn and profit. Cheers
Polar_Bear
Polar_Bear
NBA Betting / Friday NBA / View Post
Nice looking card Polar Bear BOL
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
Alien-

Never said I know so much and others so little in general, but just in regards to the FSU Seminoles. Know everything about this team. Check the #1 post in this thread and click on those threads I posted here BEFORE the season breaking this team down and you'll realize.

Degengambler-

Glad someone on here actually understands what I'm talking about. This defense just has too much speed. FSU D has spent a lot of time practicing WITHOUT a football. They have solely been worried about assignment football, and they will be ready to play it. They will throw 8 in the box constantly, press coverage, and DARE Marshall to drop back and try to beat FSU 1 on 1. Good luck with that going against the likes of PJ Williams Ronald Darby and Lamarcus Joyner with Terrance Brooks and Jalen Ramsey lurking over top. Telvin Smith, as always, will be all over the field. Not the most physically gifted MLB but boy does he have a knack for being around the ball. Watch out for Timmy Jernigan. Dude commands a double team every play and will probably be the first Seminole drafted this year (only a junior but will leave). One thing this D has lacked all year is a pass rush (hard not to when you lose a 1st 2nd and 4th round DEs to the draft year before). Mario Edwards (former #1 overall recruit) has improved but still is raw when it comes to rushing the passer. Eddie Goldman (former 5 star top 10 recruit DT) has been playing opposite of Edwards but he doesn't provide much rush off the edge. Reason I bring this up: All three have been BEASTS against the run. IMO this matchup couldn't be much better for FSU. Auburn's only chance is if Marshall has the passing game of his life.
As for professionals at the next level, you couldn't be more correct. Just broke down the D a bit, but boy is this offense ridiculous. Going to go against this soft Auburn D w all this fire power. Starting WRs Shaw, Greene and Benjamin will all be in the NFL. Shaw is definitely gone as a senior. First half of the season it wasn't debatable Greene was the #1 WR but boy has Benjamin caught fire the last 6 weeks. Greene is a junior while Benjamin is a redshirt Sophomore: if both declare after winning this National a Title, I wouldn't be surprised. RBs, Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr are both Juniors. I'd be surprised if both don't go to the draft this year with Karlos Williams ready to take over the reins (he is my pick for breakout player in National Title game that most don't know about). Williams moved from safety to RB in Week 2. He is CLEARLY better than both Freeman and Wilder which says a lot since both can leave early for NFL. You can't miss his talent. Jimbo has been loyal to Freeman and Wilder and didn't give many significant carries to Karlos until the game against Duke. I see him splitting w Freeman in title game and taking over the job for next year then having a monster year and being drafted as a starting NFL RB. Impersonally think Wilder isn't that good, but he was a high 5 star coming in and definitely has some potential. TE Nick O'Leary can leave as well as a junior. He can be a solid TE if he puts his mind to it. Definitely will be in the NFL. The center Stork will be drafted and Cameron Irving the LT is a top 2 round pick if he decides to leave this year. Was moved from DT to LT last year so he's a raw talent. Throwing Jameis in the mix, that is TEN offensive players that will no doubt be drafted at some point in the NFL. I've never seen anything like that. 

As I continue to say, I cannot see how this one is going to be close. But Anything can happen in one game! Leave in 30 hours for Pasadena. Can't wait to watch this massacre in person!  
PlayinPlot
PlayinPlot
You're all welcome. Glad I could help. My prediction is FSU 52 Auburn 24. May sound crazy, but I don't see this being remotely close. BOL to all.
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