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Damon102
Damon102
College Football / Saturday / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Damon102:

Season 3-4

0-2 yesterday, had navy o66 unfortunately game was called (as a loss)

It wasn't called...the 2 teams were just absolutely pathetic once the game resumed. I had 2h over 30, which ended as a push, after a missed XP, missed field goal, and 3 drive-killing INT's after the game started back up...
vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

if brady doesn't put up 300+ in this game, it'll be because they took the lead and went to the run.


You aren't adding anything to the discussion. No one is denying that the Pats will be able to move the ball.
vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13:

Go read CMJohnson1's thread and he hit everything spot on.


I will check out his thread later; however, I know he's a massive Pats fan so...
vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:



Brees dropped 350+ on them. Twice.

Said already I'm not going to argue that the Atlanta defense is good...they're not. However, using the team who scored the 2nd most points in the NFL (only behind Atlanta) as your example of why the Falcons' D can be beat is not the most convincing argument.
vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:


Great reply. 

We are probably going to see this game very differently. I've watched every Pats game since Mo Lewis hit Drew Bledsoe and know this team inside and out, and Brady is going to eviscerate that defense. Belichick with 2 weeks and a better coaching staff will find a few stops and that's all they'll need. Pats defense may not be great but they are certainly better than ATL. Better coach, QB, and defense. People are way overthinking this. Will try to post a writeup before the game. 

Thanks buddy. These are the discussions I miss from the good 'ol Covers days .

One more point as I see a lot of the obvious "Belichick with 2 weeks to prepare" angle. This is the 7th time he's coached the Pats in the Super Bowl. He lost those two times to the Giants as pretty sizable faves, and won the other four games by margins of 3, 3, 3, and 4 (should have lost this one if the Seahawks weren't retarded). I'll give him the one over the Rams as a solid upset...but he's far from God in this situation. 
vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:


Have always respected your opinion as well, but would love to hear how Atlanta is wins going away on paper? I can't see anything to suggest that.

Refs had no impact on that game. PIT had 1 more penalty for 9 more yards. Don't see anyone but PIT backers complaining about the refs. NE raped them.

You're telling me the Brady fumble had zero effect on that game? The Steelers would have had the ball at midfield down 1 score. And that ignores the previously dropped TD pass and the inexplicable play-calling from 1st and goal at the half yard line. Pittsburgh shot themselves in the foot all night, but there was a couple times that drives probably ended prematurely due to the refs swallowing their whistles.


That game aside, the Super Bowl comes down to how much one buys the "bend, but don't break" Pats defense. Maybe Belichick is just happy to concede yardage between the 20's and that's just their plan...or maybe their 32nd-ranked SOS and complete lack of playing respectable quarterbacks/offenses has something to do with teams' inability to finish those drives. Prior to last weekend, the Pats had played exactly one "good" team, and lost at home, to Seattle. Keep in mind this wasn't the same Seahawks team we've seen the past couple of seasons, and their offense was especially putrid on the road (3 points at St Louis, 6 points in 5 quarters at Arizona, 5 points at Tampa, and 10 points at Green Bay). That Seattle team went into Foxborough and absolutely abused the "vaunted" Patriots' D. 


Last week was the only other respectable offense that New England faced all year, and we obviously saw that game very differently, but the Steelers moved the ball just fine (despite losing their best offensive player in the first quarter and most of their receivers having serious cases of the dropsies). Some egregious play-calling and possibly even more egregious drops kept their scoring down, but I don't think that had much to do with the Pats' D.


Now they face Atlanta's historically great offense, and I just don't see them being able to get stops. The Falcons, unlike teams quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler, Charlie Whitehurst, Jared Goff, and Landry Jones that the Pats have feasted on all season, don't just move the ball between the 20's...they finish drives. And they've done so against any defense they've faced. Liking the Pats in this game is making a huge leap of faith that Matt Ryan's offense is going to perform closer to these horrible offenses New England has faced all season than what they've done for 19 straight weeks. Good luck with that...


That being said, it's not like the Falcons defense is good either; they're not. And for anyone backing Atlanta that is clearly the biggest concern. Personally I feel more confident in them slowing Brady down enough to get the job done than I do with the Pats' D slowing Atlanta's offense down. This would be a much more interesting matchup in my opinion if you pitted last year's Broncos vs this Atlanta team. They might be able to do some damage. But you're not stopping a historically good offense with the cast of misfits masquerading as the "statistically ranked best defense" in the league that the Pats put out on a weekly basis. 


Again, I still haven't placed a bet. If anything I might lean towards the Atlanta team total over 27.5 more than anything. They've eclipsed that number in 14/18 games this season and as you can see from all of the aforementioned, I don't have any reason to believe New England has the capability to stop them from making that 15/19. 

vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

NE should destroy them on paper, but man are there some bad trends against NE in this spot off 7 straight covers.

It's interesting you say that as you know I've always respected your opinion, and this is why books always get their 2-way action. 

I think "on paper" Atlanta wins this game going away. But I'm scared to bet against New England if the Super Bowl is called anywhere close to how yesterday's game vs the Steelers was. I think the Pats finally got their first penalty of the game just before the end of the 3rd quarter, after they had amassed a 24 point lead...and I can assure you that wasn't the first play of the game where an infraction was committed. I wouldn't go as far as to say that Pittsburgh should have won that game, but the score wasn't overly indicative of anything that happened other than New England getting every break/call imaginable. 

The Pats still have yet to impress me, and maybe they finally do on February 5th, but it would be a stark contrast to anything they've done thus far this season. I haven't decided what I'm doing with the game yet FWIW. 
franz555
franz555
Where is Wales +1 at that price? Did you mean +0.5?
glyde69
glyde69
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.


Big proponent of teasers in general (on the right numbers of course where the math supports them), but something is telling me not to this week. I'm pretty sure one of these games ends in a double digit victory, but hopefully not.

Nice to see you still posting, always respect your opinion. I'm only a lurker on Covers these days.
theclaw
theclaw
The NBA Finals start a week Thursday regardless of when these conference finals series end, so Kyrie is getting the same amount of recovery time no matter what
scalabrine
scalabrine
Great write-up. You absolutely deserved to win this bet 
football_007
football_007
So much credibillity in this thread with the guy with the Broncos av leading things...I'd be amped too 
searchwarrant
searchwarrant
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

Denver will be up 27-3 at half

dimndimn
dimndimn
Sounds like a 9er fan already whining and the game isn't for a few days 
andarmac99
andarmac99
Hawks 
FSerpico
FSerpico
Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Too bad you're betting on Bane and not the Dark Knight.



ActionMagnet
ActionMagnet
Quote Originally Posted by tsw:

 

LOL

 

 

 

 

 


Agree lol...but I'd love him to be right
ActionMagnet
ActionMagnet
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

I really wasn't impressed at all by Seattle offense

It was 1 game. Did you see the last 2 times they played the 9ers at home?
ActionMagnet
ActionMagnet
No chance they're only laying a fg.

-4 minimum. Probably higher
Absolutxedge22
Absolutxedge22
Quote Originally Posted by newmarket:

P4P. .. based on his only 2 trips to Seattle. Niners got trashed.. I can't expect the same thing to happen a third time in a game that gives you a trip to the super bowl.
All hearsay. . Winning in Carolina is not easy. Seattle was their only loss and they had to come back to win.

Wouldn't necessarily expect the 9ers to be blown out as badly as the last 2 trips (combined score of 71-16), but it would be quite the turnaround if they were competitive at all, let alone won. Brees looked like an amateur for most of the game today, and his football IQ is a LOT higher than Kaep's. 
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