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This is an insane amount for USC to give in this game. Take the points.
Illinois is a young team. They are peaking at the end of the year, playing with a lot of confidence. Juice Williams will give USC fits. He's too mobile and they'll have a tough time getting a read on him. USC on offense isn't impressive. Their end of the year string was against weak competition. Cal? Oregon St.? UCLA? All very average. And it took an Oregon implosion - which beat USC only four games ago - for the Trojans to get here. Illinois will do enough to keep the game close. |
Mr_Covers | 150 |
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Wisconsin is the pick. Better skill players - especially at rb - and a better defense.
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Mr_Covers | 71 |
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Auburn wins the battle in the trenches. Take the points.
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Mr_Covers | 114 |
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Both Ds are superior. Take the points. Fresno's the pick.
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Mr_Covers | 71 |
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staying away from Cal in the second. Took AF for the game. Not touching the second half line.
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Mr_Covers | 106 |
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This is too many points. Oregon is an elite program. They will make the necessary adjustments to keep the game close.
Looking at their O and D lines the Ducks have an advantage.
It's a toss up. Take the points.
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Mr_Covers | 105 |
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In the last three seasons OSU has lost four games; three of them to teams with a spread offense (Texas, Florida, Illinois) and the fourth was to a team with a very mobile quarterback (Michael Robinson, PSU).
System wise, and especially if Flynn takes most snaps, this is a good matchup for OSU's D. Overall, this appears to be the best D OSU has had under Tressel - including 2002 - although as everyone has noted, their schedule is very weak so it's hard to tell. A bit of caution: don't lean too heavily on the theory of SEC superiority. OSU was blown out by Florida last year. But Wisconsin beat Arkansas and Penn State beat Tennessee. The gap isn't that great. Also - the Vegas underdog has won 7 of 9 straight up in the BCS title game. So please don't use the "lock" word. At this point I'm betting hard on OSU ML. |
Mr_Covers | 310 |
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Maguire44: The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last six ALCS games? That stat is about as helpful as the Red Sox being 5-4 in their last nine ALCS games. Thanks.
Dice-K pitched twice against the Tribe this year. The first time he was shelled: 5.2 IP, 12 hits, 6 ER. The second was very good: 7 IP, 4 hits, O ER. But that was in July. Over the last month Dice-K hasn't been able to get out of the fifth with any regularity. Meanwhile Westbrook has been just as erratic. Over the last month of the season his ERA was 3.9 but his WHIP 1.5. It looks like neither starter will last long: advantage Indians as we saw the other night. Also keep in mind Ortiz and Manny combined are hitting over .500. It's unrealistic to think that will keep up. Going with the home team the momentum. And the better bullpen. Indians ML. |
Mr_Covers | 10 |
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Clearly Pettitte has earned the reputation of a big game pitcher. And this is Carmona's first playoff start. But here's what they've done the last month of the season:
Pettitte - 29 innings pitched, 14 K, 5.59 era, 1.59 whip - 3 wins Carmona - 35 innings pitched, 27 K, 1.78 era, 0.99 whip - 5 wins Against the Yankees this year Carmona had 2 starts - 13 innings pitched, 9 K, 3.86 era, 1.16 whip Pettitte pitched once against the Indians - 7.1 innings pitched, 4 K, 2.45 era, 1.23 whip Experience definitely means something. But those numbers over the last month are a HUGE difference. I'm going with the hotter pitcher. And the team with a lot of confidence after last night. Indians ML |
Mr_Covers | 30 |
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Here’s the point total KY put up next to the defensive ranking of KY’s opponents this year:
Florida Atlantic - 45 points – 90th ranked D Arkansas - 42 points – 71st D Louisville - 40 points – 84th D Kent - 56 points – 34th D Eastern Kentucky - 50 points – No Ranking KY has done very well against very bad defenses. South Carolina is ranked 26 in Total D and played well against LSU. 28 points surrendered on the road – including a fake field goal for a TD – is a solid job against that offense. Also, over the last three years KY has averaged 13 points per game against South Carolina. And SC is 3-0 in those games. I’m taking the team playing at home, at night, that has a better resume – winning at UGA and a solid effort against LSU are more impressive than anything you can take from KY’s schedule. SC - 3 |
Mr_Covers | 371 |
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Subseagm: Thought I was pretty clear when I said NE has more talent than Cinci at every position. I think NE wins this game. But I have a feeling Cinci covers. Nothing more than a feeling. And all I can find are small items to cling to:
As I mentioned, turnovers are always key – and Cinci has 9 in three games. NE has a negative TO margin. Brady is completing 80-percent of his passes. This obviously won’t continue. If you’re playing the law of averages, he’s going to have a bad game sooner or later. Maybe that’s tonight. Cinci is fourth in the NFL in total offense. 8 points is a lot for that kind of offense at home (though the injury to Rudy is worrisome). Palmer is averaging 22 points per game against Belichick – But 13 per game the last two. Palmer is 2-0 at home on Monday Night. A side note: 70 percent of the money is on NE. Does that make anyone else nervous? As for your comment about trends, please tell me you’re joking. |
Mr_Covers | 228 |
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NE is better than Cinci at almost every position. Cinci has no 3rd WR. And no running game. But a few things to consider:
Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NE. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS when playing NE at home. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing NE. NE is losing the turnover battle - will catch up to them eventually. And CInci has a habit of causing turnovers. NE has played nobody - beating up on SD (with their troubles) NYJ and Buff is a light resume. Dogs have been killing the favs this year: 9-4 this weekend. A home dog on Monday night getting more than 7 is a virtual lock to cover. I'm going against talent - and the public. 2 Units. Buying half a point. Cinci to cover + 8. |
Mr_Covers | 228 |
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