Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nice work Bart. I'm with you that a four game chase might be the sweet spot to be up plenty of units, without having to lay out so much. Also, I've been looking at compounding the unit size as a percent of bankroll, rather than a flat unit throughout the season. Pretty crazy potential when we may be looking at several hundred units on the season. Jeff, I sent a friend request. I have a question I'd like to PM you. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
|
|
Jeff, First off, thank you for the hard work you've been putting in and not letting the haters get to you. It's obvious this system has a TON of potential. I hope you don't mind me throwing out some info, mostly as food for thought. I've been crunching numbers in Excel and I thought I'd post some of them on here. The reason being is that while the results you've posted look great, people need to realize that bankroll management is going to determine weather or not they make some serious coin from this system or they go bust. Assuming -150 average juice for a six game chase the units wagered are as follows: G1: 1.5 to win 1 G2: 3.75 to win 2.5 (recovers the 1.5 from G1 and nets one unit) G3: 9.375 to win 6.25 G4: 23.4375 to win 15.625 G5: 58.59375 to win 39.0625 G6: 146.4844 to win 97.65625 So what we can take away from this is, a three game chase loss is about 14.5 units, four game loss is about 38 units, five game loss is about 96.5 units, and a six game loss would be about 243 units. I double checked this a few times, but if I'm off on something, anyone is free to correct me. I have definitely made the mistake of having a winning system, but getting a little to ambitious with my unit size. I know the numbers on this system look great, but even with $5 units, you need to be ready to have $1000 on the line for a game 6. I am not AT ALL trying to speak poorly of this system. I just want people who will be following to realize that having two or three chases overlap at one time, and possibly go beyond game three could require several hundred units. Please plan accordingly! That all being said, you bet your behind I'm getting in on this. Careful bankroll management will result in some serious plus money this MLB season. The percentages look really good on games 1-3. I'll be crunching more numbers to look at both chase and labby results. Maybe an alternative for folks who want to get in, but don't have quite a large enough bankroll to go the distance with six games. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by rubberneck:
out of HEMP @ .30 moving on Same here. In @ .015 end of December, out at .29 with plenty of shares leftover to sit on for a while. |
StiflersMom | 731 |
|
|
KP, Thanks for offering up a lot of good info. I'm fairly well versed trading options but have been looking to get my feet wet in forex. I know there is a steep learning curve, and I would not just jump in blindly. Any recommendations for reading material, websites, etc.? Realistically I could allocate about $2K-$10K, any insight as to a good starting point? What is your time commitment on average per day/week? Thanks in advance. |
Knoxpoker | 42 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by bDnews: 730 31-3-1 covers from the start of 2010 until last week. AND, none of those losses happened more than ONCE in a season. So if one of the early favorites happens to win and NOT cover, you can have a solid play on a SU winner later to cover the spread. Detroit, Philly, and NY are all dogs. Does this system mean these teams will win SU, or just cover the spread?
|
bDnews | 13 |
|
|
I was just looking at the pitching line up for MIL at LAD today. Since Marco Estrada of MIL, and Ted Lily of LAD are both injured, there are essentially two AAA pitchers starting. O/U is at 7... anyone else thinking that may have some value as a side bet/parlay?
In either case, I think the situation favors LAD today. I love my Brewers, but today its about business! GL All! |
bettor2win | 2965 |
|
|
Games today should be NYY G2, and CHW G1 if I'm not mistaken.
|
therizz | 367 |
|
|
Wait for official post, but I believe MIA, STL, and NYY are plays today. All opened at -145 or higher, are above .500, and are not playing two game series.
NYY game also meets 9 o/u filter. BOL |
therizz | 367 |
|
|
Beginning on 4/16 the following series would not have qualified with a .500 filter:
4/16 - LAA - .400 4/17 - MIA - .455 4/20 - LAA - .357 4/23 - MIL - .471 4/27 - CIN - .450 4/27 - PHI - .450 4/28 - LAA - .318 5/4 - BOS - .440 (Loss) 5/7 - PHI - .467 (Game 3 Pending) I started on April 16th for two reasons. First, all teams had played approximately 10 games at that point. It would be difficult to apply a .500 filter any earlier in the season because a few wins or losses creates a big swing. Second, there was no pending series at that point. Started with the "Game 1's" on 4/16. Seven winning series would not have qualified. Game 3 losses on DET 4/26 and SF 5/3 would have stood. The BOS series resulting in a game 3 loss on 5/6 would have been filtered out. Also the current PHI series on game 3 tonight, would have been filtered out. |
therizz | 367 |
|
|
Well said SoCal. Lots of wins ahead. These blown 9th innings are insanely frustrating BUT... (dramatic pause before obligatory, and obvious statement) we have a long season ahead, and a solid system in place.
BOL to all of us the rest of the week! |
bettor2win | 2965 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by irage: 2012
RPI Chase Worksheet Percentage Calculator
MAY (1-1) 5/3 - (A) Yankees .542 -130 (V116) - LOSS 5/4 - (B) Yankees .542 -160 (V116) - WIN 5/5 - (B) Texas .680 - 144 (H77) - PENDING Texas is playing at Cleveland. Should be "(B) Texas .680 -144 (V77)* - Pending", correct? Play is the same either way, Texas ML -144. |
bettor2win | 2965 |
|
|
Follow up:
***The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.*** ^ That is what espn.com uses to calculate RPI anyway. |
Scotte | 133 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by Scotte: Ratings Percentage Index Relative Power Index - https://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi |
Scotte | 133 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer: Oh, you're the guy touting the shittiest fucking site I've ever seen? If you hadn't noticed, I'm up 2k in this thread and my picks are free. I'm up 2k in my other thread and those picks are free. Why should anyone waste $10 for ONE of your potentially losing picks when they can just come here and choose among several excellent cappers. Furthermore, you make your customers have to deal with all that arrogant/irrelevant advertising on your haphazard website? PLEASSSSSSSSE, you're the definition of a loser. (The original thread in question) HA! Just for kicks I went to look at taylor2's website... what a joke! I published better looking websites in my 3rd grade computer class back in the day. Did you happen to see the traffic counter at the bottom of that mess of a page (after all the irrelevant ads)? Almost breaking the double digits... impressive eh? |
dj_destroyer | 88 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by mickjam: Google has been my avenue to finding the picks. It takes a bit of time, but by the end of my first coffee, all is done. I did take into account the time difference, but some of these games start really early. Was not aware of that. I am a quick study, so the wtf posts will only last a couple of days, I promise. https://soccernet-assets.espn.go.com/scores ^ ESPN's soccer page. It will show all the games and scores for the current day. You can also click on a different date from the calendar on the right hand side. Makes it pretty easy to find the teams/leagues, etc. |
dj_destroyer | 1011 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by LuckyLuke: did anyone hear of this fool? "Discover How You Can
INSTANTLY |
LuckyLuke | 3 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by mickjam: DJ, pardon my ignorance. Still on a steep learning curve here when it comes to soccer wagering. Juvuntus Lazio - Does 02 refer to 'over 2 goals'? Trabzonspor - Pinnacle has it listed at -0.5, 1.87. Freiberg is the same. Twente at pk, 1.63, Xanthi pk 1.68. Are these correct? I just want to make sure I'm doing this right. I would appreciate your help. MJ - O2 is indeed referring to the over/under. So in that case it Juvuntus/Lazio Over 2 goals (-170). For Trabzonspor and Freiberg; those are referring to the moneyline. The -0.5 you're seeing for Trabzonspor is the spread. If DJ has something like: Team A (-110) then it would be a moneyline bet. If it says: Team A 'pk' or Team A '+1' then it is a spread bet. The difference between 'pk' and the moneyline is with a 'pk' bet you lose if the outcome of the match is a draw. Unlike the moneyline bet which would be a push. Hope that helps, BOL today. DJ - Feel free to slap me if I got any of that wrong. |
dj_destroyer | 1011 |
|
|
I'm sorry to clutter the thread more than it already is, but can we just stick to business here?
RC1 - You've got your thread going; BOL on it. Please do not fill up this thread with arguments and what not. You don't need to defend yourself against anyone here. Smdio - It sounds like you don't care for RC1 and you think they stole Thinkers system. Maybe they did and maybe they didn't, it really doesn't matter. Thinker is working on a great project here and it shouldn't be tainted by silly arguments. I'm not trying to make friends or enemies here. Quite frankly, its not even my place to comment on this issue. It sounds like however, that Thinker would like all the nonsense to stop. Out of respect for this thread/project, I think we should all oblige. Let's have another good night tonight: 403. TB (+1.40) $45 to win $63 404. Montreal (+1.05) $45 to win $47 405. Ottawa (+1.10) $45 to win $50 406. Cleveland (+1.90) $45 to win $86 407. Phoenix Suns (+1.25) $45 to win $56 FYI - I just got Montreal for +120 and Cleveland for +205 over at bookmaker.com. GL tonight everyone! |
TheThinker | 1514 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by cacabware: Are you saying you prefer popcorn over sandwiches? Because that's just blasphemy... although popcorn is quite tasty. Does anyone else like popcorn? |
KOAJ | 58 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by Joefung168: Can someone tell me what is A, B, C, D bets mean? Chase system. "A" Game would be the first in the series. If that bet loses, you would bet on the "B" game to cover your losses from the first game as well as profit. Example: "A" Game - Bet 11 to win 10 - loss. So continue with the "B" Game - Bet 22 to win 20 (covers your loss from the first game and still gives you profit). Once you win, whether it is an "A", "B", "C", or "D" game the series is over. You can also manage the money different ways. A lot of people, including myself prefer a Labby system of money management. Search around on the forums for explanations on that. It's kind of hard to explain and its 2:00 AM for me right now... Kinda getting loopy... |
hitmangotjinx | 1044 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.