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Thread Author Musicmatt1 Post Entries
phixer
phixer
NFL Betting / phixer's nfl / View Post
Looks like you are back to your old tricks my friend.  But what have you gotten yourself in to here brother, lol?  People are abusing something that could be so powerful.  As Mavin taught us, it is more important to create your own discipline than to follow a tout (in your case, it may be more profitable to follow your picks, lol).  Everyone must realize that the pick is not what you are trying to share with them, but an example of discipline and a money management system.   It is not productive to project negativity on a loss, but rather analyze the reasons why?

I'm not going to lie, my participation on this site has been limited as of late.  We hide behind avatars and throw respect out the window.   I always believed masks should represent a hero or a cause.  I think what we had last year was that but there are still many people on covers that lack the discipline to become a part of something great.

With all that said, keep it up!  I hope you saw the hedges to your something ridiculous, like only 2 losses.  I'd like to chat more privately about things we've been working on.
SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Late to the after party... But want to take a moment to thank Mavin for connecting me to some of the most amazing PEOPLE I've ever met. My process of capping and life in general has improved greatly from the lessons I've learned here.

Hopefully we come back together for NFL action.

Once again, Mavin!


Thanks!
SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Late to the after party... But want to take a moment to thank Mavin for connecting me to some of the most amazing PEOPLE I've ever met. My process of capping and life in general has improved greatly from the lessons I've learned here.

Hopefully we come back together for NFL action.

Once again, Mavin!


Thanks!
SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Late to the after party... But want to take a moment to thank Mavin for connecting me to some of the most amazing PEOPLE I've ever met. My process of capping and life in general has improved greatly from the lessons I've learned here.

Hopefully we come back together for NFL action.

Once again, Mavin!


Thanks!
KCsFinest829
KCsFinest829
Quote Originally Posted by KCsFinest829:


Accepted it earlier today. Good to hear from you. 

Thanks for accepting!  I sent you a message this afternoon.

KCsFinest829
KCsFinest829
Hey KC,

Please accept my friend request so I can send you a PM.

SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by tonyperaino:

nothing tonite Musicmatt ?

I appreciate your positive vibes my friend and invite you to contribute to the process.

Unfortunately I was unable to post my plays today but I was able to learn a lot from the results...

I learned to pay more attention to teams level of achievement.  Over achievers will tap out and under achievers will step up.  The trends are constantly changing and Vegas has been built on people believing something will happen because it should happen. That's why they play the games.

I hope this helps you with your future bets. I'm not saying always go against the public, but know what the lines are trying to make you do. In one game, there are many ways for Vegas to make money.  So just because you sided with Vegas on one play, doesn't mean Vegas didn't win....

That would lead me to this RL discussion I still want to have. It's sports, crazy stuff happens. I can be more confident a team wins, than that team winning by 2 based on the that statement. As I just stated, there are many ways for Vegas to make money. There are also similar opportunities for US to make money. I am not suggesting taking big lines either. I'm suggesting we find plays that work for us. There is no such thing as a paper champion.

I would really like to work closer as a group. Discuss our plays and our outcomes. Our record and negative money does not reflect our hard work. Let's do this!

SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy86:

 
Musicmatt thanks for the reply. Sorry it took so long to get back with you  My dad had surgary on his leg today and I have been hanging out with him all day.
 
I was only looking at ML was the movement because vegas is trying to get more bets on Tigers or is it the public is putting more money on the Tigers?.

Wish your father a speedy recovery!

Looking at it now from when I earlier posted, this is quite the public movement.  Does anyone know when betting services hand out their picks?

Correct, I originally believe the line was moving due to public betting. The public didn't shift to Nats when lines changed.

At some point, the public hopped on the Nats? That lasted too long for me to believe it was sharp money. Did the public realize some Nats players were in they thought could be out?

Based on all this information, I believe Nats were play today... Tomorrow are different conditions.




SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by KCsFinest829:

KCsFinest829 35-43-2 -771$

HOU Astros ML +168


The angels are good at two things. Hitting lefties and not playing to their potential. With this lineup they should be winning their division right? Well they are 3 games better than Houston so far. Well they are about to throw out three righties in this series. I will be on Houston and the inflated number all three games. I can see the espn story now when they are 11-23 and just got swept by Houston. I don't think LAA will prove me wrong and win this series.


Over 9 NY Yankees - COL Rockies -120


These two clubs in Coors field should be able to score runs. A lot. Hiroki Kuroda is pitching out of his a$$ lately and I just don't think he can continue that at all.


KC Royals ML +118


Bad weather in Balitmore. I would like the under too, but I really don't think we will see a full game here. We might but thunderstorms are coming in and the game in Washington already got postponed. Hopefully this game is shortened a bit so that Holland can sit in the bullpen all night. Can't believe he is a closer in the Major leagues or that they pulled Shields yesterday. Yost showed really poor in game management as usual. Ervin going for his 100th career win and I think he gets it the first time here in a shortened game!


I work 5 miles from Camden Yards... The weather was terrible today and more storms moving South. A shortened game definitely supports your pick.
SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy86:

Guys this is my first year trying to handicap baseball games. I am trying to learn to read line movements better, so my question is can anyone explain the Tigers National game started Washington -120 now Washington +103. I sometimes see you say the money is going on a team but the line is not moving with it.How do you find that out.

  With the line movement so far how would you handicap this game. Thanks in advance for any input


From what I am seeing, when the line change occurred, it seems the percentages went down on Nationals ML and went up on Tigers RL...

This situation seems very much like the Detroit/Atlanta series.  Popular opinion on Nats is that they are struggling.  Setting the line so low on Tigers is hinting to me that they want to entice bets on Tigers.

What do you see in the lines?
SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by washhead:

We shall see how the game turns out, but there was some significant RLM on the Twins / Red Sox tonight.  Boston opened at -240 and dropped down to -215 or -210 despite 70-80% of wagers coming in on the Sox.  I was tempted to take the Twins around +185 but just couldn't pull the trigger on Worley vs Buchholz.   Something to note for next time....

I noticed this as well... From what I've seen anything over 20 points of a swing either way is significant. I believe it depends on how the money swings after the shift.

In this situation there was already such a high percentage on Boston; it was difficult to see any shift in money.  

RLM tends to be a tell on some piece of the game though.

 
SportsMavin
SportsMavin

Musicmatt1  61-36-3  +1567$

 

Under 7  SD Padres - MIA Marlins  -105

 

Under 6  SF Giants - PHI Phillies  -110


Phillies and Marlins both played an East Coast game yesterday and are now on the West Coast.  It will make a difference starting these games after 10:00 PM EST.  There was also RLM on the total in San Diego, with a high public % on the Over.

SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy86:

Hi handicappers,   Have a thought tell me what you guys think!  Yesterday after the Phillies game and Doc got rocked I got some input from  Ashy and Tizzy that if I would have had known  before the game I probably would not have played it.  Now I know we can’t have all the handicappers put input on all the games that are picked.  So my thought is why don’t we have a group pick it can be one game a day or just do one a week.  Someone pick a game and everyone that wants to can give input on that game.

I know that sometimes we all will not agree on a game but I think if we all use are strengths together on a game or two a week it might help out are bottom line.


I don't agree that all of the input towards your pick yesterday was useful.  If we are comrades, would you watch your fellow soldier walk in to a trap?  Commenting after a pick demonstrates a lack of belief in your leans or a lack of respect for the team.

If we learned something from the pick that we could use moving forward, then we should discuss.  We should actually discuss every pick after it's conclusion.

SportsMavin
SportsMavin

Musicmatt1  61-33-3  +1907$

 

Under 7.5  KC Royals - CHI White Sox  -110

 

Under 7  PHI Phillies - MIA Marlins  -105

 

MIA Marlins  TT Under 3  -125

 

I'm thinking runs come at a premium during these games.  Similar line movement to the games the past 2 days with $$ on the Over.  The White Sox TT Under should be good as well.  I think if the Phillies Under hits, it is because Doc pitched well and the Phillies won, therefore the Marlins TT Under.

 

Good luck today and remember to take it easy on Sunday. 

SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by natalieportman9:


Indians bats were just too hot, and (I guess?) Kazmir still has some tricks left.  it is over with this indians bullpen, they have been solid.

So I'd like your opinion... Same thing happening with lines and unlicensed betting in Texas tonight. Leaning Red Sox and Over. Think the total RLM was aimed for big bettors because public money didn't warrant it.

What do you think of Boston tonight? Kazmir winning kind of unbelievable, same as Lackey?
SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by natalieportman9:

Are the twins always this bad vs lefties?

I'm not sure about that but, the line movement was fishy in this game... The betting patterns were weird. It was higher % on Twins ML and higher % on Indians RL. Vegas flopped the line to adjust the confusion, and had more public $ on Twins.
SportsMavin
SportsMavin

Musicmatt1  59-32-3  +1847$

 

Under  8.5  NY Yankees - OAK Athletics  -115

 

TOR Blue Jays  ML  -140

 

WAS Nationals  ML  -145

 

The Under in New York is just like the game in Texas for me.  RLM to entice more Over bets.  Maybe the A's experience some jet lag.

 

Think Toronto has a good chance of knocking a few out of the park today.  Thinking the Over is a good play as well.

 

All this talk about Strasburg's arm should have people on the other side.   I think he is dealing today which is against popular opinion.

SportsMavin
SportsMavin

Musicmatt1  57-31-3  +1777$

 

Under  9  TEX Rangers - BOS Red Sox  -115

 

Under  6.5  SF Giants - LA Dodgers  -110

 

LA Dodgers  ML  -137

 

With $$ on the Over and the line dropping to 9, I believe this was intended to invite more Over bets.  With Doubront on the mound and the way the Red Sox have been playing lately, the Over was a no brainer.  BUT, I think the travel from Toronto to Texas may slow down their bats tonight.

 

Think the runs come at a premium tonight.  I've said when 2 elite pitchers hit the mound, one of them tends to struggle.  That mostly occurs when the Total is set to 7.  I'm going to think Kershaw wins this for his dad today and may even toss a complete game.

SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Quote Originally Posted by DJG1986:

2 outs...walk..4 runs..still counting.. Milwaukee damn it...

I'll do my post game write up early. You learn from your mistakes. I said the line was begging for a Cardinals bet, yet offered limited positive juice. I feel like this line was aimed at people with my thought process.

As AshyLarry pointed out pregame, if the Brewers win, it's because they hit, not because Peralta was slinging it. That made the Over the better play here. 

What I learned:
You've got to believe the storyline... It's baseball, yes. But some lines are set to target big players and some are targeted at the public. Either way, I'm sure Vegas is doing fine. 

This leads me to Orioles game... Sort of the same thing.  Blanton has not won a game this year and he is favored this game? I think if the Angels were to win, wouldn't you think it's because they hit? 

SportsMavin
SportsMavin
Seems like Harper and Werth playing... Play already in contest so let's go!
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