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Nothing. Home team generally gets 4.5. The books said Virginia was 3 points better on a neutral court 2 weeks ago (hence -7.5 at home) and is saying the same thing now (+1.5 on the road). For what its worth, I think Virginia is more than 3 points better. Though Virginia's slow pace makes me hesitant to lay points with them, I do like them to take out Clemson tomorrow.
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Covers | 8 |
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Tech playing well, but the Terps are much improved since the return of Pe'Shon Howard and Alex Len. Been up 10+ on both of their last 2 home opponents (Wake Forrest and Cornell) before second half letdowns caused the score to be much closer than the game appeared. Maryland is actually very good on the glass and I expect they'll have to win it there since they only have one scorer. Very hostile environment as we near the return of classes. Terps were a team to fade early on this season, but not since X-Mas. Tech is also very dependant on Glen Rice Junior, but I think Turgeon uses Pe'Shon Howard and Nick Faust interchangeably to pressure him on the perimeter. And seven footer Alex Len does a good job protecting the rim. Tech comes back off their good form a bit, give me the Terps -1.5 (admittedly biased, but also knowledgable).
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Covers | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gococks17: also remember the Terapins shouldve beat Clemsux... yeah that's the Maryland Terapins, UNC also... WVU is that bad....bet Clemptown even though I can't talk myself out of this trap bet.. blowout.. neither team deserves a bsc bowl... cocks would be there if it wasnt for auto shit conf. bids... True, but that logic almost means West Virginia stinks. Terps lost to Clemson 45-56 at home. Terps lost to West Virginia 31-37 at home. Could've won both games. They gave up a big lead on Clemson and came back on West Virginia. I don't know if Clemson is any good, but I'm pretty sure West Virginia isn't. |
Covers | 74 |
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1 Washington's offense is horrible. Campell is not an NFL starter, they have no receivers, Poris is past his prime and the only weapon (Cooley) is injured. 2 Washington's defense is decent and keeps them in games (the dog is 5-1-1 in Skins games this year and every game has been decided by ten points or less). Sa what you will about the horrible schedule, but they played the Giants close in week 1 on the road and lost to Philly by 10 last week, if they do that again, its right on the line. 3 Atlanta is a playoff team last year and looks every bit like one this year as well playing the Saints close and absoluting destroying a decent Niners team. The Falcons really needs this game after two straight losses and prbably won't underestimate the Skins. Don't expect the Skins to score more than 13 points (i expect less than ten on the road), meaning if you take them a parlay with the under is almost a must. I cannot fathom a way that they score the 17 to 20 that tey would need to cover and go over. The line feels about right given the skins D, which means the under is probably the way to go (thinking 20-6 or somewhere in there) but I don't trust a motivated Matt Ryan not to score 45 points like he did against a Niner team that kept giving him chances. Hesitantly taking the Falcons while fully aware that the only time a favorite has covered a line in the skins game was last week. |
Covers | 58 |
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Too bad Nolan got canned, he was actually making some progress with this god awful team. If I bet on this game, I might actually be tempted to watch these horrible teams so I'll have to beg off, but since they are equally bad I wouldn't give more than 3 with either, which means I'd take the points (but that would mean I'd be betting on Seneca Wallace, which I can't do)
I believe Nolan was actually well liked by the team so I wouldn't expect his firing to spark something great like the canning of Linehan, so again I lean Seattle, but again the wallace thing... no play, and I hope its not sold out so its blacked out. This is a 3 hour advertisement for NFL contraction, if you bet on it or watch it you'll only encourage these bad games, if we ignore it maybe it will go away. |
Mr_Covers | 27 |
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Giants are shaky. They looked horrible against Cleveland, and then le San Francisco hang around way too long. They seem to have lost focus (or they were never as good as I thought they were). No way New York goes to Pitt and wins. I'll give the three without thinking (especially off the bye). Pitt may not like that the NFC East is getting so much love as the best division is football...
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Mr_Covers | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by wasabitobiko: JIM JONES... will make the rookie wish he'd never gotten outa bed.. Ryan has looked great so far, but now there is six weeks of tape to watch. And Jim Jones (one of the most aggressive and smartest coordinators in the league) had a bye week to watch tape and dream up creative blitzes to exploit Ryan's inexperience. And the Falcons are on the road where Ryan is only a 50% passer and has never thrown for more than 200 yards? 9 points is a lot, but it feels like this one might get out of hand from the young falcons. I would give up to 10 points with Philly. |
Mr_Covers | 78 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Watch: Mountain Terps, I just noticed the Covers team erased Henry-Lilly's response to my inquiry, and for good reason. He called me the same name as he called atlantasports but he capitalized it. You're right, I never saw Lilly's response, if I had, I probably would've stayed quiet, and kept taking your advice to the local book (which is what I plan to do after finishing this post). As a Redskins fan, it's hard for me not to enjoy the pending implosion of the Cowboys, but I still think they get the cover here. Even Brad Johnson should be able to find Roy Williams and TO and I don't trust the Ram offense to score more than 17 points two games in a row. That means the much hated Cowboys only need 24 to cover. I'll still be on Dallas (may the Redskins forgive me). Keep the shades on. |
Mr_Covers | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Watch: Henry-Lilly, I used to think that you had class. You will remain nameless to me from this point forward. That my friend is a racial slur, and I will report that to the Covers team. And I'm being man enough to tell you that up front This isn't my fight, but I've never thought of buckwheat as a racial slur (though maybe I should have). Watch, that could've been an honest mistake from Lilly, maybe a spot to give him a chance to respond and apologize before reporting to the powers that be. Also a spot to take the Cowboys -6.5. They won't look past the Rams and would like a chance to show how much better they are than the arch rival Skins that lost to these Rams. No-Romo, no problem, as the Rams shouldn't be capable of beating the Skins and the Boys back to back, no matter how old the starting QB is. |
Mr_Covers | 83 |
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What part of 16 points in 2 games makes anyone believe the Cleveland offense will suddenly spring to life on the Road against the Raven defense? Cleveland was a great story last year, until defenses got enough tape to scout Derek Anderson. In his last 7 games last year he threw more interceptions (10) than tds (9). This year he averages 140 yards per game and has thrown 1 td and 2 picks. He has all the signs of a flash in the pan and I do not expect this offense to snap back into shape overnight. Especially not against the Ravens. I'm no Joe Flacco fan and the Cleveland defense looks solid so this looks to be a low scoring affair (think under), but I see no reason to expect a Cleveland bounce back. I expect them to win about six games and start the Brady Quinn era next season (if not sooner).
Baltimore 13, Cleveland 3 (the touchdown will probably come on defense) |
Mr_Covers | 38 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kramer_the_rook: What do you Raider haters think about a parlay? I know parlays are the devil in disguise, but I have been thinking hard on this one.
Chiefs ML
Panthers ML
Cardinals ML
Rams ML You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than hitting a parlay that requires straight up wins by the Rams and the Chiefs. |
Mr_Covers | 68 |
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Great spot for the Skins here. They looked truly awful against the Giant defense in week 1 and clearly didn't have a grasp of Zorn's new offense. The defense was strong. The long week apparently helped Washington (as did the Saints weaker defense) as the offense looked good last week even though they had difficulty finding the endzone. Another week to work on the red zone offense should help turn some of those field goals into touchdowns. The Skins defense is far better than Miami or San Fran and though Kurt Warner is sill dangerous when given time, under pressure he will still spew turnovers. I like the Skins 24-10 as they go up in he first half and then grind it out with a strong running game in the second half.
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Mr_Covers | 40 |
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The book do not try to lure the public into bets. They set every line trying to get equal action on both sides so that they are guaranteed to make money. PERIOD.
Everything Nightridah said was right on, here are some more reasons to be on the Celts.... Boston -4.5 and under 191.5 (I have 192, but I feel a game under 180 so it shouldn't matter). #1 Both teams get a cross country flight and only a single day off, that means less practice and maybe a bit of weary legs so less jumpers should fall (especially from the Laker bench who seem to play better at home). Also important is the Laker bench performance since Gasol and Odom have been contained. #2 No more lackluster Celtics. They need game 6 and they know it which means the defensive intensity should be there early and often. I expect the Lakers to 40 or less in the first half. Also expect Doc Rivers to point out that the Celtics keep getting blown out in first quarters so they may come out extra fired up. #3 Perkins? No one else seems to think this is important but the Lakers did a much better job on the boards after Perkins was injured. He doesn't bring much on offense, but his defense and rebounding allow Garnett to avoid Gasol (and foul trouble) while Perkins cleans the glass on D and frsutrates Gasol. I'd feel much better about the under and the Celts if someone would tell me he is playing. I checked perkisabeast.com, but they don't have any info either. I do think he plays though. Rivers probably rested him in game five waiting for this game and if its close to healthy he'll give it a go... after all "Perk is a best." #4 Why is this 4.5? The home team gets 4.5 points in the NBA (just like the home team gets 3 in the NFL). We know this. So if two identical teams played each other the home team would be favored by 4.5. So when the Celtics get 4.5 at home Vegas is telling me that these teams are equal. Wrong. The Celtics are better and have proved it repeatedly. Every must win game they have won (games 2 and 4) and have looked better throughout the series, so why are they only giving 4.5? The line is getting closer to correct with each game, but its still off by a few points. Vegas simply won't let me take the Lakers cause the Celtics have been undervalued in every game. #5 The Crowd. I think the Boston crowd may be worth more than 4.5 this time. They should sense a championship and all those Patriot/RedSox fans will be hammered and obnoxious for several hours tomorrow night (9PM local start gives people 4 hours to drink between work and game 6). The crowd shouldn't affect Kobe, but Vujacic? Farmar? Radmonavic? Gasol? Do the officials make those same calls on Garnett in front of 20,000 drunk Bostonians? Does Boston rotate a little faster and box out a little harder? Will LA fold up in the second half and just let Kobe take all the shots if LA is down 10 in the third and the crowd senses blood? (Vujacic won't I've never seen someone who likes shooting as much as that guy, but the rest may pass pass pass pass pass pass, which Kobe will like, but won't help the Lakers win). |
Mr_Covers | 195 |
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Home team has won and covered each of the 7 games in this series this year. I see no reason for that to stop now. I'll take the Mavs and give the points.
Mavs by 10 |
Mr_Covers | 110 |
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Detroit is significantly better and you have to figure they realize that eventually. I would've thought they woke up in game 3, but they didn't, which is frightening because it means they are sleepier than I thought, or Philly is better than I thought. I still like the Pistons (hoping they're just sleepy) but I'm less confident now than I was.
Pistons by 15. |
Mr_Covers | 161 |
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Stormtroopers by 8.
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Mr_Covers | 110 |
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Popovich has showed he will foul shaq at will all game long. That means an extra 5-10 foul shots for shaq and an extra 2-5 possessions for the Spurs. That should boost the total about 10 points over where it would land without hack a shaq. Also the Spurs have shown that they are just a better team, Phoenix played their hearts out game one and came up short. Nash no longer has enough weapons to keep the Suns close. It's like when Yoda had to go into hiding at the end of that Star Wars movie cause the evil empire that is the spurs is just too powerful.
Yes Duncan is Darth Vader in this analogy. |
Mr_Covers | 110 |
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Game 2 Wizards don't show up on the road. Game 3 Cavs don't show up on the road. So that's a wash (except it shows no one wants to play on the road). Game one the Wizards play the Cavs to the wire in Cleveland. The Wizards are a more complete team than the Mavs, but LeBron makes up for a lot. Still there is value in this line for the Wizars. Arenas practiced and will start tomorrow morning, and no one has covered anything on the road yet. Four doesn't seem like a lot, I'll take the Wizards at home, this series looks like it may go to a game seven.
Home favorites are 5-2 ATS and 7-0 SU in the 7 games these teams have played. Plus my eyes tell me no one has shown up on the road yet in this series. Wizards by 10. |
Mr_Covers | 88 |
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Detroit has a better road record than Philly does a home record. Detroit understands that they let game one get away and showed how much better they are than Philly in game 2. Detroit understands that they need to win one on the road and should show up and play a complete game. No reason to expect them to win by less than 10. Take the Pistons -4 or 5 or 6. It doesn't matter.
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Mr_Covers | 88 |
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After what Washington and Toronto did on Thursday after coming home
after dropping two on the road, the knee-jerk pick is the Mavs. But
the Cleveland is god awful on the road and both the Raptors and Wizards
had already shown an ability to play with the other team. Dallas has
only shown me that they have no answer for Paul, and that they can lose to the Hornets by a lot or heck of a lot. Until
they show me something I see no reason to turn on New Orleans. Granted
Dallas is great at home at against a lesser team that would be enough to switch me off New Orleans, but the Hornets are pretty good on the road
(26-15) and I'm getting 5 points with the better team and the best
player on the court. I don't think the Hornets will sweep and yes
Dallas will win one of the next two, but I doubt they take both, and I
see a close game. The over might be the smart play as the Hornets have scored at will and the Mavs figure to shoot better in Dallas, but I have no feel for totals. I'll take the Hornets in what feels like a close game. Of course there is almost no reason to touch this when the Pistons are sitting there at -4 begging to be bet on. Detroit -4 might be the freest money of the playoffs thus far.
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Mr_Covers | 74 |
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