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Chrisb96744
Chrisb96744

Quote Originally Posted by RyanOJ24:

Posted: about 8 hours ago "Quote" The postponement on Friday kept me from starting the system, so now I will start Monday with a bunch of new series starting. There's a few good options this time.    Marlins (home) vs Mets Padres @ Rockies Braves @ Nationals Tigers @ Indians Twins (home) vs Astros   These teams should all be underdogs for their entire respective series'. I'm not looking to pick the best ML value, just trying to choose the one with the least chance of being swept. I'll probably change my mind before Monday evening, but as of right now, I'm thinking the Twins. Thoughts?

I would say the Braves. They are leading or near the top of almost every offensive stat. They have won every series they have played so far. And, the Nationals are on a 5 game losing streak. Not sure if the Braves win this series but, I don't see them getting swept. Just my opinion. Good Luck!!

KorverMcgregor
KorverMcgregor
Quote Originally Posted by KorverMcgregor:

NFL Plays:
Cowboys -6.5 (5unit Play)
Cardinals +3.0 (2unit Play)
Jaguars -3.0 (1unit Play)
Seahawks -3.5 (1unit Play)


NBA Plays Posted in the NBA Forum Section.



Hope this helps
TY Covers and BOL to us all!



It is obvious that you are doing well this year. I just see two of your picks that I worry about. First, Fournette is out for Jax. Doesn't mean they won't cover. Just saw that and I backed off Jax. Second, San Fran has been competitive in every game this year except the first game of the season against Carolina. Otherwise, they have lost all of their games by 2 or 3 points. I think the coaching staff has the team playing well and just missing the win game after game. I like SF plus the points. 

Either way, good luck with your selections this week.
chaser15
chaser15
Quote Originally Posted by chaser15:

"Play2" is a 3 game straight marty chase to break a 3 game losing streak of a team that has a winning record. Obviously, there will only be a few plays here. For teams with +60% wins, I often begin this chase after 2 consecutive losses.

Hey chaser... I think you have a play on the Pens tonight under Play2 system. They are at a 60% win rate with two consecutive losses. They also play very well at home. I will be chasing for three games. Thanks for posting these two systems!

AceRothstein27
AceRothstein27
I hear you Lippsman. But, I think you hit the nail on the head. I am only an occasional player. If I was playing several times a week every week, I would probably change my strategy. But, I need to play conservative and try to conserve my bank roll while still using the stats of the game. Since the average shooter rolls an average of 8 times and once the point is established it takes 3.5 rolls for a pass line decision, I try to make a couple of dollars on the shooter as quickly as possible before the dreaded seven comes. I probably won't be able to play again for several weeks. I will make sure to come back and let everyone know how I did. 
AceRothstein27
AceRothstein27
Well, I went to a casino over the weekend and threw dice. I do a controlled throw and I did very well. I had three sessions. First one I bought in for $300 and cashed out for $665. Second session I cashed in my purple chip and lost $400 of it before taking a break. Third session I bought in for $300 and cashed out for $900. Needless to say the wife was happy!! The wife and I were in the bar and a guy comes up to me and says "Were you on the craps table last night?" I said yes and he said "That was the single best roll I have ever been involved in!! You made me and my buddies some cash! Thanks!!" I probably threw 40ish times before the seven. One guy to my left was betting much bigger than me and he tipped me two green chips when it was over. He was way down and ended up making $2000 on my roll.  

I try to get in a rhythm and get the dice to stay on axis. If I can, I tend to get some good rolls going. The second session I couldn't get the dice to stay on axis and had very choppy throws. It might not have helped that I was starting to feel the Makers Mark on the rocks!! I know they say to not drink when shooting dice but, I was having fun and so, what the hell !!

Now, Lippsman is telling us how the book says to play craps. It is the statistically best way to play by lowering the casino's advantage. And, if you want to play by the book, play the way Lippsman explained it. But, later on I saw the guy who had tipped me at the table and asked him how he was doing. He said he was down $14,000. Guess how he was playing. Pass line bet with max odds and two come bets with max odds. He was getting slaughtered because the table was cold. He said the only time he made any money was when I threw the dice. I have played the way Lippsman says is the correct way and I just don't do that well playing that way. I get my best bang for the buck by betting bigger on myself and then, go minimum bets on the inside numbers when others are throwing. After hitting a number or two, I tell the dealer to turn my bets off and I wait for the next shooter. As an example, lets say you have a $10 pass line bet with $50 odds. Then you get two more $10 come bets in action with $50 odds. That is $180 in action. If the seven comes, you lose $180. And, to get two come bets in action, the shooter had to hit two numbers. What if you would have bet $180 across ($30 per number), left it up for the shooter to hit two numbers, then turned off the bets. At a minimum, you would have won $70 if he hits the 6 or 8. So, instead of losing $180, you win $70. That is a $250 swing. Think about how many times you are at a table and the shooter sets point, hits a number or two and then sevens out. Sometimes, it seems like it happens all night long. That is why i started to let the shooter hit one of my numbers and then turn off my bets and wait for the next come out roll. When I shoot, I pretty much leave my bets up and every time I hit a number, I press one unit. I know, very conservative but, it works for me.

This betting structure works for me but, it may not be your cup of tea. The one thing I would caution you on is don't get greedy. Don't be afraid to turn off the bet after the shooter hits your number. If he starts to get on a roll, you can always turn them back on. But, if you leave your bets on to try and hit two or three numbers before turning them off, you can get burned. Once you start to build your bankroll, you can leave the bets up to try and get a couple of hits. This way you can stand to lose a round of bets and not be in trouble with your bankroll.

I love craps and I don't play anything else on the floor unless the wife wants me to sit next to her for help.
AceRothstein27
AceRothstein27
I remember posting in this thread a couple of years ago. I love craps and I don't play anything else unless the wife wants me to sit with her to help her. The last time I played BlackJack I got six twenties in a row and didn't win one of them. F that!! I'll stick with Craps.

Someone was asking about a betting structure that will keep them in the game while they are waiting for their turn to shoot the dice. I was at a table once and the guy beside me was structuring his bets this way. He bet $360 across after the shooter established the point. He let the shooter hit one number and then turned his bets off. A $60 4 or 10 pays $108. A $60 5 or 9 pays $84. A $60 6or 8 pays $70. He kept doing that and before long his rail was full of chips. One of the dealers said he was stupid for turning his bets off because he was missing out on some hits. But, the boxman said that it wasn't so stupid. He was winning minimum $70 per shooter. If you could win $70 per shooter and did that 10 times, you would be up $700.

This got me thinking and I adjusted his method slightly. After the shooter sets the point, I go $120 inside ($30 each on the 5, 6, 7, & 9). If the shooter hits one of my numbers, I do one of two things. If it is a $5 table, I go to $22 inside and I am plus money on the shooter. Even if the shooter 7's out the next roll, I am still up $13.
If it is a $10 table, I just turn off the bets and wait for a new shooter. Sometimes if the shooter seems to be hitting numbers, I will turn the bets back on if he goes to another come out roll. Once he hits one of my numbers, I turn them back off and wait for a new shooter. There have been only a couple of instances where I have missed out on a monster roll but, You can always jump back in at any time. Keep in mind that once the shooter has set the point and his next couple of rolls are: 12, 4, 3. I will tell the dealer to turn my bets off. I don't leave them out there indefinitely. You know the seven is coming and I would rather wait for the next shooter than to keep the bets out there too long.

I am very conservative and this has allowed me to either win some money or limit my losses at the table. Plus, I am drinking for free and having a good time.
Moneymaker990
Moneymaker990
I am feeling pretty good about my card tonight. It is pretty much opposite of this guy! I like OKlahoma and La Monroe. Good Luck guys!!
Kschis21
Kschis21
I am not sure of Ga Southern. This is more of a home court advantage play. Troy lost at Ga Southern earlier this season and I feel that these teams are close enough statistically that they should split their home/home series. Troy plays well in conference play and is tough at home. I usually play dogs but, I think Troy can cover the short line tonight. Good luck!!
DonChrono
DonChrono
This week alone there have been a lot of upsets where a ranked or good team is on the road and gets beat.
  • Purdue lost to Nebraska
  • Florida State lost to Ga Tech
  • Creighton lost to Georgetown
  • UCLA lost to USC
I am sure there were a lot of guys saying there was no way those teams could lose. If Woodward is healthy, I look for Oklahoma to take it to them. Win or lose, it is never a good idea to think a 1 point road fav is a lock. They go down all the time.

Good Luck tonight!!
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
I am the commissioner of a league and this past season, I had to kick an owner out of my league. I have replaced him. Your draft position is determined by your finish the previous year...winner picks first, runner up picks second, etc. The owner I kicked out finished third last year. My question: do I allow the new owner to pick in the third place slot since that is the team he took over? Or, does he have to pick last?

Thanks for your help!!
KingScorpio
KingScorpio
I saw that LAD also fit the system but, I decided to not play them for several reason. The Pirates can hit lefties and they are trotting out the same lineup that got to Kershaw yesterday. Pirates on 3 game W streak, Dodgers 3 game L streak. Early game after late game usually hurts the visitor. And, most important is that I am a huge Pirates fan and season ticket holder. I think they can win every game...LOL!!!
KingScorpio
KingScorpio
Thanks!! I figured it was easy to find...I just didn't know where to look!! LOL!!

I actually like AZ today. They fall under your criteria plus you have two teams going in opposite directions. Phil has only won 2 of their last 10 games and AZ has won 7 of their last 10. Plus, AZ's offense has been better in the last 10 games. AZ's bullpen has gotten beaten up a little in the last ten games but four of them were in Colorado where they gave up 18 runs in 4 games. That ball park is a nightmare for pitchers. I feel that they should pitch better now that they are home.

Give me AZ -140

Good luck today if you play!!
KingScorpio
KingScorpio
Hey King...since baseball is all about the pitcher first and foremost, I like the premise of this system. I think it would be best to use this criteria along with a few more when capping and you should be able to come up with some solid selections. My question is...where do you find WHIP last 5 games? I would prefer to not have to figure it out myself and I can't seem to find this stat anywhere. I can find last 3 here at covers but can't seem to find last 5 anywhere.

Thanks for your help!! 
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
Well, I picked up my 2 units. Trying to pad my bankroll for football season. Good Luck!!
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
Well, I picked up my 2 units!! Worked just like I planned. Trying to pad my bankroll for football season. Good Luck!!
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
I ended up playing the RL on both teams to lessen the odds. And, I got plus odds on the home team. So, I won one unit on Tampa Bay and I will chase Houston for one win in the next 3. Not excited about Feldman tonight but, I will have Keutchel and McHugh the next two nights. Should pick up 2 units when this series is over.

Good Luck!
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
I ended up playing the RL on both teams to lessen the odds. And, I got plus odds on the home team. So, I won one unit on Tampa Bay and I will chase Houston for one win in the next 3. Not excited about Feldman tonight but, I will have Keutchel and McHugh the next two nights. Should pick up 2 units when this series is over.

Good Luck!
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
I posted this in the Systems & Strategies forum and thought I would post it here:

There are certain sports that I like to do chases in and Baseball is one of them. I see that Houston and Tampa play a 4 game series. I do not think either team will get swept in these 4 games. I was thinking about betting both teams in the first game. Then, chase the team that lost for the next 3 games. Seems like a good way to pick up 2 units. What do you guys think?

Thanks and good luck!!
MortgageMan
MortgageMan
There are certain sports that I like to do chases with as do some of you. I see that Houston and Tampa play a 4 game series. I do not think either team will get swept in these 4 games. I was thinking about betting both teams in the first game. Then, chase the team that lost for the next 3 games. Seems like a good way to pick up 2 units. What do you guys think?

Thanks and good luck!!
boydo1314
boydo1314
Quote Originally Posted by EKUD:

Maybe I'm not understanding this thing.  On oddsportal, both ROI for AZ are +.


I did this quickly before I headed out to the Pirates game. I could have swore that AZ was green and Wash was red. No way to check now. Later today I will try to get up today's picks.

Arizona +167 L
Detroit -106 L
LA Dodgers -212 L
Atlanta +116 L
Tampa Bay +123 W

Day total was 1-4
YTD 3-4
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