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replied to
Hey peeps! Frisky Alishia(runner for Moody Alex) just drooped 165k Nebraska +4.5 first half!!
in College Basketball Straight...well done. You should tweet these instead of covers forum. Then I can get notified when you post!
Keep it going!
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Straightbets | 31 |
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I am sure this has been asked.....what is this system?
I have been lurking and it seems to be on fire! Great job man |
Straightbets | 61 |
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Played Wright State last night!! It definitely fit. Anyone else Iike me? I am not a fan of the Saturday slate....just too many games to look at. I prefer the mid week games where you can find one or two solid games to hone in on and research. Early games I'm seeing are Providence, BC, Oakland, Arkansas... See home many I can track and research today. GL all! If anyone finds a good one post it up?
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redtear2989 | 480 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:
Be careful with this system. Been there done it. Can work for a while, and turn on a dime. Always good to exercise caution with any system. Are you aware of any other systems that people have posted in the Covers Forum? I found learing Red's super interesting and would like to learn more.
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redtear2989 | 480 |
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I was looking at UCLA as well but some things I noticed that kept me off. Stanford is 11th in the country in Adj Defense Efficiency. They were significantly better at every defense category than UCLA. The one edge I saw for UCLA was they hit the offensive boards fairly well but on the flip side Stanford doesn't give very many offensive boards up. Stanford shoots the 3 at almost 40% and the weakest part of UCLA Defense, defending the three (ranked #346 in the country). Looking at the stats...Stanford went 8-17 and shot 47% from three. No edge in rebounding for either team. KenPom was pretty accurate. I didn't dig into any trends but just from that it was enough for me to stay away.
However.... since I like to take a look back. it looks like UCLA started out as a +2.5 then flipped to a -1.5 favorite early in the day with about 60% of the money on them so I wouldn't call that RLM. From there is looks like they went back to +1 about 15 minutes before tip with the money dropping from 60% down to the 30%. The more I look the more I think this was not RLM. May need an expert to weigh in on this..I am fairly new. Red would you mind taking a look? Anyways that's my 2 cents.
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redtear2989 | 480 |
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Bradley is looking like a play. I am digging a bit deeper. Great home court advantage (53rd) and the hit the offensive glass hard. S. Ill is poor on keeping teams off the offensive glass and they have a high turnover rate. Bradley has a tad better offensive efficiency rating as well. Beware.. one of Bradley's top players Elijah Childs is out. They still have another big that is top in the country on the off and def glass though. I am throwing a small play on them at -7.5. Would wait till closer to tip to play this but I am out tonight.
GL |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Western Illinois is one that I have been looking at. I threw a small bet on them. Both teams are bad defensively and play fast so there should be a lot of points. W. Ill takes care of the ball and is good at creating turnovers. They are not spectacular at home (243rd)...
Like I said small..hahah BOL |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Good work guys. I was eyeing Michigan St and St. Joes but I was out and about today and couldn't do any research. I like coming back to this thread and seeing what you guys think about each days games. Good to have extra sets of eyes when combing through everything.
Cheers |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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NC Central vs Florida AM. Florida AM in a let down spot after a big win and Iowa State? I might look into this one.... |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Quote Originally Posted by NameTaken:
The Citadel line went back to -6 and tickets flipped to them. So, we pull off that, right, or do we trust what we saw before?
Yup just checked. I am not going to fire, especially with their bad home court advantage. |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Citadel looks good, but their home court advantage is AWFUL ~326th in the country. They do have a slightly better SOS. Maybe a small play? |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Sienna. I had them. They had an awful first half, couldn't make it up....smh! I had Detroit circled, didn't fire. I guess I was scared that everyone was on the other side.
Red when you find a team, I know you like to look at home court advantage. What other stats or angles do you like to look at when finalizing a bet? |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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I had FIU pegged and circled. Missed so many free throws down the stretch. Oh well glad to see I have some of the games circled that you mentioned Red.
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redtear2989 | 480 |
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Good info Red. I have been able to track these lines close throughout the day since I have been on a long break from work. I go back tomorrow and it may not be as easy. I think what I may try to do is take a quick look in the morning for any RLM. Set an alarm for 30 minutes out before tip and check back to see if the RLM and % has held. Or maybe I just play the weekend games. I am starting to see how handicapping can become a full time gig and I have barley scratched the surface. Cheers! |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Lesson learned, took the ISU line early. Let's hope it pans out.. I looked at Providence, but didn't pull the trigger. I guess I need to figure out the timing on checking for this RLM. It's hard to watch all day. tidibs..any suggestions on how you track it? |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tdibs:
I don't see it with UCF...if everything holds up I see plays on Air Force and Iowa St I have been eyeing the Air Force Game.. the %$ on the side has evened out a bit but still some RLM. I will wait closer to game time to make a decision.
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redtear2989 | 480 |
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Thanks Moemoney.
I saw that OKSTATE cover the spread by 20+ points as well, blew it out of the water.
Time to start seeing if I can pick a few winners using this!
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redtear2989 | 480 |
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Red- first off thank you for sharing your knowledge. I went back and looked at today's games and was trying to put your system to use. I came across the Oklahoma State (Home) game. There were big home court favorites. https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/betting-trends/southeastern-louisiana-@-oklahoma-state.cfm/date/12-29-19/linechanges/y It looks like this was a little bit of RLM as it started out -24 and closed at -27. The % money looks to have gone from %55 and dipped down to about 19% closer to game time with some jumps in between. The line rose steadily while the % money went on the other side. Couple questions. Am I implementing this correctly? Is this an example of RLM? Apologies for the questions, bit of a newbie here when it comes to breaking down lines. Again thanks for the lesson! |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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Holy crap Vandy cannot tackle. Their secondary had given up at least 3tds by whiffing on tackles |
darien123 | 27 |
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I am in the championship of my 16 team fantasy league. I have rode Rivers all year. Baker was recently let go by a team and I snagged him off the wire.
What do you all think? Stick with Rivers against the tough BAL defense? Or go with Baker against a softer CIN defense?
I am worried about pace of play in tonights game. If it matters I am projected to lose and my opponent has both Njoku and Keenan Allen...
Thanks is Advance. Good luck to all in their championship games.
Mohr4ya |
Mohr4ya | 2 |
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