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Michfan15
Michfan15
This question is particularly for those who follow ref patterns and betting angles.  I was going through notes on my phone and found one I made in 2013 where I noted a definite correlation between Dick Bavetta reffed games and Overs.  It seems like the majority of the games he reffed were higher scoring and went over.  Sometimes due to questionable calls made by Bavetta.  I think it would be interesting to investigate this further to see if any suspicious activity took place on games he reffed that led to overs cashing.  If anyone has any insight or thoughts on this would love to hear.  Thx.
StraightWagers
StraightWagers
Quote Originally Posted by StraightWagers:

Davis/Corbin/Phillips/Spooner (alt) G3 Hou @ GS
  • this ref crew individually is 11-2 SU for Hou as the road team
I can find equally strong data for GS as a home team. To me this just seems like the right time for GS to lose 2 in a row. I really don't see that momentum that Hou captured in G2 just disappearing that quickly, this series has always felt like at some point Hou would be up and if they win this game they will be 2-1. Then all the drama is set as the talk will be Cavs are coming back to win that series and we have a barn burner of a series in Hou/GS, makes perfect sense to me.

The easiest or safest thing to think is GS returns to Oracle and instantly finds their mojo as they are undefeated at home and never lose 2 in a row yada yada. Davis is a great ref for Hou in this spot, Hou has shown road success recently and at one of the toughest venues in Utah winning twice. I like Hou to win this game even if they get down double digits at some point, it's time for GS to be shocked at home. Tempted to live bet Hou all game if they are down...

Hou +8 (10 bets)
Hou ML +290 (5 bets)

On another note, looks like it's setting up for Foster G4 Cs/Cavs.

DAM love it...but saw AussieDownUnder on GSW....So torn!  Respect both of you guys.
Michfan15
Michfan15
Sometimes the line says it all...
JoeyIce
JoeyIce
George Hill over 9 points even.   Veteran solid PG back at home who has played pretty poorly, can only improve.  Could hit it by halftime.
Michfan15
Michfan15
+5.5 for the first half.....   Cavs blow out?
StraightWagers
StraightWagers
Straight Dub - whats going on amigo!!  Good luck on the CAvs game tomorrow, I'm with you.  Have them to win it all at 8/1 and 21/1 I got right before game 7 vs Pacers....

Are you or AussieDownUnder capping WNBA this season?  
Digitalkarma
Digitalkarma
Nice write-ups...I remember you and I both were on the Ravens last year and will be on them again this year.  Also agree with your reasoning and backing of the Saints and Giants.  If the pieces all fit together for the giants and everything goes right they could make a playoff/SB run.  


lmb4321
lmb4321
There really isn't that much "value" to be had betting these NFL futures compared to NCAA BB where you can get solid teams anywhere from 50/1 - 100/1 at varying parts of the season.

Even the NY Giants I figured would be at least 50/1 are 33/1 on vegas insider.  They are a team that if all the pieces fall correctly I can see them making a playoff and SB run but it barely feels worth it at 33/1.

Saints at 20/1 is very solid, I'd think they'd be lower like 12/1-15/1 range.  Cam Meredith is legit and their D made tremendous improvements last year.  A bad missed tackle away from the NFC championship game.

I like Baltimore, also 33/1.  Big additions on offense and having Lamar Jackson to compete w Flacco should raise his game.  

The best "long shots" IMO would be the Bucs at 50/1.  Adding more pieces to defense which will be improved this year, and I think people are writing Jameis off too quickly.  Another year with the same staff and coordinators will be great for him.  His numbers weren't even that bad if he can be more consistent and not turn the ball over, the Bucs are capable of having a top offense.  

Also, if Bradford can stay healthy and with David Johnson back, the Cardinals offer SOLID value at 80/1.  Sure they will need some pieces to come together but with Seattle on the decline they could play the Rams tough and slow down Jimmy G theres no reason they can't win the NFC West...
jeffreys123
jeffreys123
I see where you are coming from since the "First to 10 points" is a really popular prop at most books.  That being said, its your fault for not re-reading the bet and not knowing exactly what you were betting on...
HockeyTeeth
HockeyTeeth
Quote Originally Posted by jmw59:

Daniel Day Lewis in "Gangs of New York"

I'd agree w/ this....Gambling related- Phillip Seymour Hoffman nails it in Owning Mahowny
LB_Dirtbags
LB_Dirtbags

Michigan plays the right style of team basketball that can beat Nova.  Yes they are a bit dependent on the 3 ball but you'll have to be to beat Nova anyway.  Should be a tight game throughout

SettleDownSpaz
SettleDownSpaz
Good call on Loyola but think you gotta reassess your position on Michigan.  Yes FSU is athletic and can shoot but we can run them out eh building. GL!
rzagza
rzagza

The winner of the Tex AM / Michigan game should meet Nova or possibly Duke in the finals.  TAMU can shoot pretty well and absolutely rebound the fuk out of the ball, crash glass HARD.  Beilien is such a top coach and Michigan is so well rounded I think they'll have no issues matching up with Duke or Nova and can match them shot for shot.  

rzagza
rzagza

Really was mindblowing.  This is up there with Stanford beating USC in football in 07 as some of the more incomprehensible and inexplicable upsets.  Not only that it happened, but the way it happened was insane.

Michfan15
Michfan15

Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7:

tough first half beat

 

that was fukin brutal man...blew the FH iona and FH over parlay as well...

Michfan15
Michfan15
This is a good team and will give Duke a serious scare it not beat them SU

Iona +21  
+12.5 H   

29/1 shot on the ML

-check back after GL
Joke77
Joke77

Quote Originally Posted by Rickey:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Joke77: Perhaps they have a good record, perhaps they aren't always right but give good insight, who do you like?  Who do you follow? I'm considered the top capper in the NCAAB forum.  My skills are impeccable.  Don't believe me?  Just watch. Here's my plays: -Okla +2 -UKY -6 -Nova -23.5 -Zona -9 -Bucknell/MSU OVER 148.5 -Texas A&M -4 -FSU -1.5

 

lmao you suck fukkin donk

DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life

When the hell did you get Purdue at 50/1??

Alien-1
Alien-1
Lets ride..
ToddC
ToddC

I don't understand your point?  This reg season for CBB was GREAT for Sharp/dog bettors.  There were constant upsets every week, DD dogs winning SU.  Where does MLB factor into this?

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