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And lastly...
4* Wsh -7 Washington the better team and probably in a better state of mind. It may be a lot of points for a mediocre team to give up, but we can't let oddsmakers trick us to leave money on the table. |
Loco-D | 11 |
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Looks like the GB line won't go back up to 6, so adding...
4* Phi +4½ I have Philly as the better team, even if it seems like a mismatch at QB; I'm not worried about Lambeau home field advantage too much, because Philly teams seem to do relatively well on the road year after year for some reason. I'm not worried about a weather advantage for this one, either. |
Loco-D | 11 |
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You usually like small home faves or dogs that people doubt can get 'er done, but it's not like that with your NE pick. Indy's D must be too much of a liability for them, eh? :-)
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SoxPats247 | 10 |
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Oy, how silly was that TNF Over pick? The game went close to how conventional wisdom dictated (I only say "close", because I don't know we could've expected Buffalo offense to look quite that bad). Anyway, being contrarian and reading into lines seems like a bad idea this year with over/unders. I've actually tracked obvious picks since week 4 and up to last week, obvious O/Us were 25-15-1 (I didn't realize this until I just summed it up now.. whoops). I remember it differently 5-10 years ago, but now-a-years, it seems it's good to "keep it simple, stupid" -- no need to get too philosophical about it, lol.
Onto picks... 2* NO -7 -105 -- The Bengals' last game shows us there's something wrong with them right now and that those poor results in Oct do mean something, even though they had AJ back. The line may not be a good value, but NO has some momentum going. 3* Sea/KC u 42½ This is an important game, but I don't think these teams will feel the need to "go for it" and will lean on running the ball and will keep it relatively conservative. KC has a good D. Seattle D may not be as good, but I think they're better than their points-against. The weather is a tiny factor in this one too, so the game may go more KC's way. 4* SF/NYG u 45 NYG has been allowing a lot of scoring recently, but they've had to face 4 straight good offenses. Their D may be average at best, but I don't think they're as bad as they've looked. SF O hasn't looked very good lately, so I don't think they can blow out NYG right now. NYG RB Jennings coming back from injury may give them a chance to keep those NYGs in the game. 4* Oak/SD u 44½ SD has lost momentum recently and that goose egg in their last game has gotta mean something for their scoring ability right now. Ryan Mathews is back for SD, which should give them an incentive to run the ball a little bit more. SD's D may be weakened by injuries, but whoever they have in there now is likely still better than Oak's O -and- I don't think they'll be giving away free passes after the team's drubbing in Mia and the scare Oak gave them the last time. Yeah, yeah... I like my unders :-). I'll be back tomorrow with Washington and Philly. |
Loco-D | 11 |
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Tough pick, but that's how you usually like em. :-) GL
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SoxPats247 | 5 |
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If you're being really picky and going for a high percentage, you may be leaving money on the table. If you can go 55% and above consistently, you're golden. It's hard to consistently turn a profit as it is.
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aceboogie78 | 11 |
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Oh, cool. I wasn't sure anyone was checking it out for whatever it's worth.
Yep, like I said, KC being second best team in all of NFL doesn't *seem* quite right. But, every so-called top team has blemishes against them, but not so much with KC after their opening game. The blemishes: Denver -- got routed by NE Seattle -- not very good results vs lowly StL & Car and better Dal & SD; they're not as good they used to be last year and even in early season NE -- got routed by our KC Phi -- nothing too major... we'll see how Mark Sanchez fairs vs better Ds, but it seems they're still a top team Az -- got routed by Den; just lost Carson Palmer SF -- got routed by Den; have had problems on offense Indy -- got routed by Pitt Dallas -- 2 double-digit losses at home & these final scores don't show how out of hand these games were Detroit -- not bad, but not enough impressive wins GB -- despite their impressive beating up of weak opponents, they got routed twice So, lack of blemishes in this league full of parity is an indicator in itself. They have 2½ impressive wins. Denver might not have brought 100% to that game against them, but it's still a decent indicator. I'm not ready to say NE is better than KC quite yet. Also, these 2 rankings also have them at #2, so I may not be too out-to-lunch with this, lol: https://www.covers.com/Sports/NFL/PowerRankings https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/ Who do you think should be #2? NE or Seattle? |
Loco-D | 11 |
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Thanks, guys.
I'm adding another unit to the pick, as the line went down to 41. I don't know whether the money poured in on the under, but it's understandable why the line went down, so I'm not too worried. + 1* Buf/Mia o 41 |
Loco-D | 11 |
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Starting the week with a weird pick...
2* Buf/Mia o 42½ It's dangerous to go against strong numbers that lean a certain way and knowledge that the match-up has conservative offenses with good defenses,, but I can't shake this feeling that it's going to go opposite of the obvious. I suppose it's part motivation, part expecting teams to switch things up, part expecting law of averages to turn things different, part expecting turnovers when defenses are better than offenses, and a very small part going with a score-happy season. |
Loco-D | 11 |
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Rewiew of last week
3* Cin -6 - L - Wow, totally capped the motivations wrong and totally capped the fundamentals wrong. The nice thing about an embarrassingly bad loss is that it's just 1 loss. 3* Atl -1½ - W - Yay, Atlanta still believing. it wasn't an easy-breezy win, but it wasn't in much doubt. 4* Sea -9 - W - I wasn't quite sure what to make of the first half, but I'm thinking the Seahawks finally woke up in the 2nd half and may keep it going now.. ?? 3* SF/NO u 49 - L - Screwed by going into OT... oh, well,, it happens. Well, it mustn't have been a good call anyway, since SF was able to score 21 in the first half. I didn't quite expect that after last week. 4* Den/Oak u 50½ - L - It turns out holding your breath and expecting Broncos not running up the score isn't a good idea... and much worse vs a team which is very much prone to getting blown out. Being brave by jumping on front of a moving train just isn't smart. It's amazing how much clearer things are in hindsight! lol Week 10: 2-3 -4.0 units Posted YTD: 11-7-0 (61%) +14.8 units Dear Diary: It's kinda frustrating to see a lot of obvious picks hit this week, while I pick some dodgy looking over/under which I'll have to sweat out.. so I think I have to adjust my filters a little bit to allow myself to pick some of the easy ones. It's a balancing act, though. Be later with picks for this week. |
Loco-D | 11 |
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With almost all the faves winning in week 10, there hasn't been any major shuffling in the order since last week, except Cincy.
Cincy surprised us and had another poor showing, so they're down all the way to #19 for now. I thought they were better than this, but I can't ignore results. Having KC way up in #2 seems wrong, as they're not off the most impressive result, but I think I have to keep em up until they falter. Seattle lost Harvin and have some starter injuries (DB Chancellor, LB Wagner, and OL Carpenter), so they're not as good as they used to be. NE may not have played KC for realsies and may be better now than earlier in the season, but I'll have to wait for more proof that NE is better than KC. Sagarin ratings have KC in #2 spot too, so maybe it's not too outlandish. But, then again, they have Mia in #8, so who knows, lol My ranking after week 10: 1. Denver (7-2) 2. Kansas City (6-3) 3. Seattle (6-3) 4. New England (7-2) 5. Philadelphia (7-2) 6. Arizona (8-1) 7. San Francisco (5-4) 8. Indianapolis (6-3) 9. Dallas (7-3) 10. Detroit (7-2) 11. Green Bay (6-3) 12. Baltimore (6-4) 13. New Orleans (4-5) 14. Pittsburgh (6-4) 15. Miami (5-4) 16. San Diego (5-4) 17. Buffalo (5-4) 18. Cleveland (6-3) 19. Cincinnati (5-3-1) 20. Houston (4-5) 21. NY Giants (3-6) 22. St. Louis (3-6) 23. Carolina (3-6-1) 24. Atlanta (3-6) 25. Washington (3-6) 26. Chicago (3-6) 27. Minnesota (4-5) 28. NY Jets (2-8) 29. Tennessee (2-7) 30. Tampa Bay (1-8) 31. Oakland (0-9) 32. Jacksonville (1-9) Last week's thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101986800 |
Loco-D | 11 |
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And the rest for the week... well, just one pick. I was thinking about Ten/Bal over, but I didn't realize Baltimore is last in their division, so I don't have enough reasons for the pick now. Anyway...
4* Den/Oak u 50½ Oakland O is pretty crappy, but their D isn't too too bad, which makes them a bit of an under team. I don't think Denver O will be too pumped about this game, so I don't think they'll run up the score too much. Their D is decent and they might be more motivated, to avenge last week's 40+ points scored against them and their special teams. |
Loco-D | 4 |
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My picks this week:
3* Cin -6 With Cleveland being better this year, I don't think Cincy would be overlooking them and I'm not scared that "it's a divisional game, so anything can happen". Having said that, Cincy had a tough October, but having AJ Green ought to make them better than then and better than Cleveland. Giving 6½ or 6 points may be intimidating, but you can't play scared! :-D 3* Atl -1½ Atl killed TB in the first match and Atl has lost every game since then. I think that win might give them confidence for this one. Given they're still within reach of fighting for the division title, I don't think Atl has given up on the season yet. 4* Sea -9 I have a feeling Seattle will play hard in this one, because they've got injuries, they haven't been playing particularly well over the last month, and NYG may be the crappy team they need right now. I know Oak was crappy too, but Sherman or somebody was making fun of them, so I don't think they brought it 100% for that one, especially after they got a nice lead. 3* SF/NO u 49 I gotta take a SF under again, with their offensive issues, while still being pretty good on D. I don't think NO will be able to run up the score like they did vs GB, so the 49 line should be enough. I'll pick Ten/Bal over and Den/Oak under later in the week. |
Loco-D | 4 |
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I'd try to see whether I could get $600-700 for it, with or without retaining picking control.
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aleem15 | 53 |
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Review of last week's picks...
3* NO -3 +100 - W - Just what the doctor ordered for the Saints to keep their turnaround and momentum going! 3* Dal -2½ - L - I didn't think Weeden would suck like this and didn't think 1 guy could make much diff. But, to be fair, I think the Boys' coaches should've given him a longer leash and let him keep throwing, so he could get into a groove and hopefully open up the running game a little bit too. 3* Min pk - W - It was painful to watch Min QB Blairwitch, but even though he missed some wide open guys early, he managed to get into a groove down the stretch and squeak it out. 4* StL/SF u 43½ - W - Twas pretty surprising to see SF's O-line problems. So, yeah, it turns out SF really didn't blow out the Rams, lmao. 3* Oak +14 - W - The Seahawks' sleepwalk continues. 4* Pit +1½ - W - They rollin'... damn! They had problems running and moving the ball early, but they adjusted and went pass happy, got into a groove, and Balt just wasn't ready to play like that. 3* Bal/Pit u 48 - L - Well, Balty D has been pretty good all season, but Pitt's offensive momentum was too much. The Pitt team that scored just 6 points in their first match isn't the same team that's ballin' now. Week 9: 5-2 +11.4 units Posted YTD: 9-4 +18.8 units |
Loco-D | 4 |
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Man oh man, what's up and what's down this NFL season? Any good team can be blown away -- even the bully that was Denver got bitchslapped this Sunday! And what was that with SD vs Mia?? Well, this is how I worked out the order:
1. Denver (6-2) 2. Seattle (5-3) 3. Kansas City (5-3) 4. New England (7-2) 5. Arizona (7-1) 6. Philadelphia (6-2) 7. Indianapolis (6-3) 8. San Francisco (4-4) 9. Dallas (6-3) 10. Detroit (6-2) 11. Green Bay (5-3) 12. Baltimore (5-4) 13. Cincinnati (5-2-1) 14. Pittsburgh (6-3) 15. New Orleans (4-4) 16. San Diego (5-4) 17. Miami (5-3) 18. Houston (4-5) 19. Buffalo (5-3) 20. Cleveland (5-3) 21. NY Giants (3-5) 22. Carolina (3-5-1) 23. St. Louis (3-5) 24. Chicago (3-5) 25. Atlanta (2-6) 26. Washington (3-6) 27. Minnesota (4-5) 28. NY Jets (1-8) 29. Tampa Bay (1-7) 30. Oakland (0-8) 31. Jacksonville (1-8) 32. Tennessee (2-6) Last weeks thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101981640 |
Loco-D | 4 |
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Superb!
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SoxPats247 | 24 |
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Wow, geez. Both teams have been scoring like crazy and been going over, over, over. Will the intensity of this game change that? Will the high winds impede making connections on offense and stop drives? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Why are you thinking about it? Do you like to pick contrarian plays? |
Loco-D | 16 |
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That's good info and insight, Homer. Good luck.
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Ducks_Homer | 9 |
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Explanation of my picks
Minnesota. I don't think Skins winning those last 2 games indicates very much. If anything, it inflates their true value. I kind of doubt RG3 will be that great coming off the injury. Vikings D has been pretty good, too. Vikings, on the other hand, haven't been winning, until they finally got a bit lucky last week, and I think that was a building block for them. It also helps that they'll be at home. Dallas. As per my rankings (above), these teams are about equal (with Romo). Weeden looked fine when he stepped in last week. I know it's not long enough to evaluate his worth, but I think the team will rally around him. I don't think it's easy to win ugly every week and keep getting turnovers going your way, and it just feels to me like Cards won't quite get 'er done against another quality team, on the road. StL/SF under. I don't think Rams offense was that great before last week, and last week they got injuries on the O line. In the teams' first match, after the first quarter, the game looked like an under game, minus the big play the rookie DB got burned for because he likes being aggressive and it was mistake he probably learned from. SF is getting healthy, so that's a question mark on how much they'll roll Rams by. But, since 49ers just beat them a couple of weeks ago, I don't think they'll be motivated from start to finish, so I'm thinking they won't run up the score too much. Oakland. Seahawks have been sleepwalking thru much of the season, and I don't think they'll be pumped up for taking on the Raiders either. It might be rainy, so this could keep the game kinda close. Pittsburgh. Steelers have the momentum going and are at home for the 3rd time in a row. Ravens have some injury problems. |
Loco-D | 16 |
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