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Will Harvard play smarter....or will Cincy miss a ton of free throws?
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Covers | 7 |
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I'm a little surprised Providence got an 11 seed (and Creighton a 3 for that matter). Providence seems to have flown under the radar all year and I'm taking +4 against UNC. I'm not sold on the tarheels...i'll be looking for some more scientific posts than the jibberish I just posted.
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Covers | 5 |
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To the guy who said "my local has saints +4 and Total at 56".... let me ask this as gently as possible: Are you out of your mind? A, teasers are bad to begin with...and B, you accept someone who gives you 4 points on totals? LOL. Ive never used a bookie in my life. If I wasn't living in vegas, there's online betting. I'm shocked that bookies still exist. As far as the game tonight....don't have a feel either way, so i will watch and study while I watch the Cats beat up on notre dame! Good luck to everyone! |
Covers | 109 |
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skimming all these posts....i see no mention of philly's offensive line? Aren't the eagles getting him back tonight? I think that will be huge for vick and mccoy. Funny how everyone blames vick...i guess the qb/head coach take the heat when they lose, get credit when they win. Im not an eagles or saints fan....but if the eagles are getting the left tackle back, that could be huge? Also, i think thomas and ingram will fill in and sproles being out won't be as important as some of you think it will be. Brees is Brees...he will just work in some other players...it's the system. As far as vick being a "POS" as some people call him. I don't condone what he did, but what about the players in this league that have killed HUMAN BEINGS. Ask leonard little or donte stallworth....vick killed dogs...these guys killed PEOPLE. Did leonard little even serve a day in jail when he ran a red light at midnight in down town st louis, driving drunk, killing a 42 year old woman, a wife, a mother of two?
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Covers | 87 |
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Interesting game. Seattle coming off a huge win at home vs the patriots....niners coming off an embarrassing home loss to the gmen. Ive skimmed over some of these posts...some of you want to take seattle and the points based on their defense...a few weeks back seattle went on the road and lost to the rams 19-13. The rams are pathetic. I should know, im a rams fan. I have a hard time seeing seattle cover +7 in frisco....Maybe if this game was at a different time...i think the stats speak for themselves with harbaugh as coach, coming off of a loss. I think san fran wins..and it gets ugly. Im surprised the % of picks isnt higher in favor of san francisco...the reason why is because the general public remembers whats "most fresh" in their minds...seattle beating new england, niners losing to giants...saw some alex smith comments on here...collin cap may be used more and more each week...defenses will have to adjust since he's a totally diff qb than alex smith. By the way, david akers is just fine...one of the best kickers in the game. I Like the 49ers to cover...and cover with relative ease: 49ers 27 Seattle 10 |
Covers | 151 |
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I couldn't agree with InVegas more! He is right...people say michigan is a "lock"...or "michigan easily"...that only makes my purdue lean stronger. I live in vegas as well...and if you've been around long enough...you love to hear talk like this. The public loves betting road favorites. Now that i think about it, a couple of weeks ago i heard the niners were a lock against the vikes and the saints were a lock against the chiefs....not only did those teams not cover, they didnt even win!!! I'd love for this forum to have threads AFTER the games are over as well as before. I'd love to hear the excuses some of the users make. It's free comedy!!! Taking purdue +3.5 in my contest. GL everyone.
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Covers | 18 |
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Rams offense is horrible....this typically would be a good sport for taking a "home dog"....but come on. I would lean towards arizona...and would also lean towards the under....you know what they say, bet with the streaks, not against them. The first four thursday games have all gone under the total. Both these teams have decent defenses and the rams have NO offense. Year in and year out the rams have a pathetic draft....with either bad choices, injuries...and/or busts. It's sick to think they could have drafted Suh instead of bradford, then Luck or RG3 this year. Oh well. Isn't it strange how some teams always have good drafts and make decent free agent acquisitions and others continually screw it up? Will the rams and browns ever be relevant in the NFL? lol. |
Covers | 89 |
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I can't figure out why eagles opened as a 2 point favorite. I don't buy the "eagles can't lose two in a row" statement. That is ridiculous. I wonder how many said the saints weren't going to start 0-3 last week when they hosted the Chiefs? The giants discovered a new weapon in Andre Brown...who will be getting some calls in the backfield with bradshaw. The eagles seem to be in disarray...and they are VERY LUCKY to not be 0-3 right now. Vick basically tosses as many INTs as TDs...you gotta think he will be facing the Giants D right in his face all night long! I doubt the giants will be looking ahead as they face the lowly browns in week 5. I may not bet this game, but if i do, i'm taking the Gmen. I'll be interested to see if any of you on here can make a case for betting the eagles...other than the fact that they are at home. Vick should be thanking his agent EVERY NIGHT for that contract he got!!
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Covers | 52 |
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KC +1....home dog, tough place to play...I'm assuming KC is about healthy...they were missing some key players in the first couple of weeks. I'll have to check the status of these guys, but my gut feeling is take the home team. KC is not as bad as everyone thinks...as proven with that +9 gift last week at the saints. Jamaal Charles is the real deal and if the young and talented KC defense is @ full strength, they should be able to do enough vs rivers and the chargers offense. Remember who's coaching the chargers. This humber guy that posts on here reminds me of a lot of people i know in vegas...people that can't win then look for excuses!!!!! Take a deep breath, possibly a new approach, look yourself in the mirror and say you can!!! |
Covers | 27 |
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I started laughing as I read this first post. I won four out of five the last two weeks...going 8-2 by simply betting against the public. The jury is still out on this weeks game. SF -4 @ the jets is very interesting. I have yet to decide on this one...normally i would take the home dog, jets +4, since my guess is the majority of the public will still be on the niners bandwagon. I'm going to wait and see if this will get up to 4.5. As far as the gb/seattle game...there was no "fix" as the first post stated...bottom line is refs made a bad call. The reason that a lil' more $$ was on the pack is because the PUBLIC BETS FAVORITES. Some you will never understand, and for this reason, the sportsbooks will always win. If you want to beat the nfl, betting road favorites is not the way to do it. I work in the industry and MANY people were so thankful...having seattle +3.5 and seattle ML. What happened there? Did all of them get an email from some secret source saying "take the seahawks, the game is fixed." ???? Lol...if there really was a "fix"...wouldn't you think it would go towards a popular playoff team like the pack? FYI...i got a secret email today telling me to take browns +12 and under 44....but i can't reveal my source! Another dog wins....pay me. I will post my peasant opinion on this game late tomorrow night. Remember folks...bet with your brain, not your heart!!!! |
Covers | 43 |
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I originally was thinking this could be a trap. 76% of the public is on the lions side...i would lean towards the lions, but betting a road favorite is always a lil' dangerous. Could this be the game Chris Johnson gets going? Titans are 0-2, but dont forget they faced super power New England and traveled cross country to san diego....did anyone really expect them to go 2-0??? I don't think they are quite as bad as everyone is making them out to be. Locker is young...give him a chance...with all that being said, the Lions need to grab this win. I'll lean towars lions -3...it might be 3.5 now, depending on where you are shopping.
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Covers | 26 |
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Funny...a post on here sounds like a few people i talked to after that denver/atlanta game...people saying they were on the right side...taking denver but the still lost, lol. Atlanta really doesnt lose at home and they could have totally crushed denver...but as most teams do, they get a big lead and they dont fully attack...get a little complacent, tentative....prob dont want to run up the score...denver scores late to give the road bettors some hope, lol. Matt Ryan..now 27-4 at home. side note: I do think san diego will get by atlanta this week. |
Covers | 39 |
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glad to see the consensus analysis shows 58% for houston...i like my denver bet even better now!!! Power of the home dogs....john q. public betting road favorites keeps the 'books open!!! i can't offer expert insight....i just think denver gets it done at home.
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Covers | 39 |
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ohhh...to the post that said niners -7, "easy money"....there's never easy money in the NFL..especially with road favorites!!! something fishy about this game...im sort of thinking the same with the lions @ titans game. Approach with caution!!
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Covers | 60 |
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Ahhh...where to start with this one. When i saw this line come out at SF -7-120, i figured it would shoot to 7.5 or 8 relatively early in the week...instead, it is now SF -6.5 in some places. Folks, im not saying SF won't cover, but this has trap written all over it. I may tease up vikes, but other than that, i probably wont play this game. Everything points to taking the niners...coming off a huge win in green bay, then beating a solid lions team. A possible lull is looming, going on the road, against a team they are "expected" to hammer...the square public $$ will be on the niners....and let me tell ya, sportsbooks don't stay open because of the public's opinion! I bet five games last week, all against the public, went 4-1. Tampa, arizona, st louis, seattle and detroit. The only reason i bet, was the general public forced my hand...glad they did, lol!!!!! So again, if you say SF is a "lock" this week, you may want to think outside the box and tell yourself stranger things have happened! Just ask the patriots last week!!! Good luck to all.
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Covers | 60 |
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Everyone buying the RG3 hype....if you want to make money in the nfl, bet the dogs. Loved the bengals @ +4...line keeps sinking...will still take my chances with +3. Oh, by the way, anyone who thinks 911 was an "inside job" is a f'ing MORON. |
Covers | 24 |
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As a las vegas resident, and a fan of the lowly rams, i'll offer a few thoughts on this game - as an impartial observer! The current line is new england -2.5 and the total is 54. The patriots have the worst defense, statistically, of any superbowl representative. The giants overall defensive #s aren't that great, but they've had significant injuries. They defeated the pats on the road, now they are a 'dog on a neutral field? Something doesn't add up!!! I haven't really seen any patriot posts on here that provide ample reasoning for a new england victory. The giants are now healthy, have been winning on the road...should be able to get pressure on brady, and should be able to put up 30+ points this sunday. I'm taking the Gmen ML and the over (down to 54, will most likely go back up since the public loves betting the over). Additionally, gronkowski will not be at full strength...could even aggravate the injury during the game forcing him to the bench...the only thing that worries me is that it seems like "everyone" is on the Giants in this. However, as my buddy says, sometimes "it's just that obvious." Can someone give me a reason to bet the patriots other than "it's tom brady and the hoodie is coaching." ???????? Thanks!
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Covers | 245 |
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A few thoughts on this game: After working in the industry in nevada for nearly six years, i've seen a lot of interesting things. The 'books out here stand to lose a considerable amount if the giants win. That's why i was a little surprised to see pats open at -3 in most places. I heard on the radio that the nevada 'books have made a profit in 19 of the last 21 superbowls. Most people i've talked to this week love the Gmen. I do as well...what's not to like? The giants are healthy, already won AT new england. They face a defense that ranked 31st in the regular season allowing something like 411 yards a game? That is horrendous. I read a post on here that said something like the Patriot D must not be "that bad" since they made the superbowl. Lol....they played two winning teams in the regular season, lost both....they had a soft schedule with the likes of the fins, bills, chiefs, colts, etc...They beat a denver team in the playoffs that shouldnt even have been in the playoffs....I would have expected nothing less than a 20+ point win. The only thing that scares me about my Giants pick, is the fact that it seems so obvious. I'm taking the points, the ML and also prop bets. I got the Giants -3.5 at +210 and Giants -6.5 at +320. I'm getting over 3 to 1 odds that the Gmen win by a touchdown? Seems VERY POSSIBLE. Good luck to all! LoCarbMonster |
Covers | 245 |
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I've been reading some game threads on here for a few weeks now. It's funny how some of you that post, keep picking losing games. I won't mention any names, but you are "regulars." This, like anything else should be looked at very simply. Bet against the public. It's simple. "Joe Public" can't beat football. That's why sportsbooks are open. If the public actually won money, there would not be sportsbooks. Again, i'd like to thank a lot of you for making me money....because I bet opposite of the general consensus. Analyze all you want...it doesn't change things!!! Happy trails.........mates. |
Covers | 38 |
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Gunner10 posted this following: "I will go with South Carolina - 6-1 ATS in the first month of the season. And 7-2 ATS at home vs a team with a winning record" deckham posted the following: Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Meaning, hello Dawgs! So...as in the case with a lot of matchups, the numbers can be tweeked anyway you want. Assuming both of the above posts are accurate, what do you choose? Who do you go with? Something's gotta give!!! I think i'm giving the edge to the home team...although hate to lay that hook!!! |
Covers | 44 |
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