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Thread Author Leprechaun Post Entries
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Hello fellow degenerates.  It's been awhile for the old Leprechaun but I'm still out here and quietly visit the forums when there is time.  The last two seasons I've had family and work issues and haven't been able to dedicate time the extra time it takes to keep my systems or any others up and running publicly.  I thought I would be able to do it this season and then ended up traveling for half of April and May and having too many other commitments.

No promises, but I'll try to update this spreadsheet in the next couple weeks and get it working for everybody.  Even if you just get 2/3 of the season out of it, you can still make a few bucks.  If I don't happen to make it back to post the sheet, best of luck to everyone.  I'll always be lurking...

Leprechaun 
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


What does it mean when a team is highlighted in dark blue?  It's not for doubleheaders.  I thought it was for having the dominant pitcher, but that doesn't seem to be it, losing or winning previous game either.


Buckeye-

I had never taken a close look at these formulas until now.  I just took for granted that they were already done correctly.  From what I can tell, the shading criteria seems to change for each system.  For example, in system #6, the team is only highlighted if it's not a C game AND the team has a pitching edge.  From what I see for the rules of this system (http://www.guide-to-baseball-betting.com/ebook-revisions.html), I don't know why Degen included those last two filters for that system.  There is similar highlighting in the other columns that doesn't seem to be included in the original system rules.  Maybe they were his own highlights to look for an extra edge when betting?  It's also possible that they are leftover remnants from him trying to build the filters in via conditional formatting instead of hard coding them into their own rows.  That's a question he will have to answer.  At a quick glance, I'd say just ignore the highlights.  If you have a chance one day, I'd say run the filters for each of the systems manually to confirm you're getting the right plays.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
I fixed the spreadsheet for now.  Go back and redownload from the link in post #79.  I didn't change the file name so make sure you delete the old one.  Somehow the formulas were changed.  I don't know when that happened, maybe when I was fiddling with things last month?  I thought the only changes I made were to the code and that the formulas were all the same as they ever were.  Either way, it appears to be fixed now and it's time for this Leprechaun to find himself a cold beer at the end of the rainbow.  Let me know if you see any other issues.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

I do it by my own calculations, Arizona only play this series


I updated the spreadsheet.  I got Cinci, White Sox, Pitt, and Arizona as plays according to the spreadsheet.  Jeff, I did not go through these calcs manually so I'm trusting that the original formulas written by Degen are correct.  If you want to post a reason why any of the other teams is not a play, I'll have a look at make any needed corrections.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Leprechaun, 
If/when you have time, could you check the SuperSystem spreadsheet for me?  I haven't gotten any plays at all for sys #1 since may 5th, and there seems like there should be for other systems.  All I get is for Sys 6 and 7, with an occasional #3.
I would appreciate it


Whoops...posted in the other thread first before I saw this.  I'll get this fixed and post any updates here in this thread as soon as I can.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I think the spread sheet is broken because I haven't had a play on Sys #1 since May 5th.


Buckeye-

I saw this yesterday but couldn't get to it.  I'll try to sort this out before games start on Saturday.  Lots on the plate since it's a holiday weekend.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Another note, I've gone through and tried a 3g chase on ALL the games that come up on the RPI sheet, whether an A game or not.  That doesn't work, everything is in the negative.  Start a chase on the A game only.  Same with the TR rankings.


One last note...I wanted to add that I've found that a 3 game chase is just too many games to be profitable in almost every scenario because the win percentage you need for it to be profitable.  It can work in certain scenarios where you play the dog in game A when you know they will be a dog in game B (or a slight favorite) but that can be tough to predict.  I think it's best to look at 2 game chases that start on game A or on game B of a series.  Less plays but you end up ahead of 3 game chases in the long run due to the enormous losses that come on C games.  I'll try to post some data to back this up over the weekend.  An interesting angle that I've found profitable is to bet a team on game A and then play them again on game B in the right scenarios.  This is somewhat what my system is based on.  Anyway, I don't want to get too complicated with the post, just wanted to say that in my opinion, looking at 2 game chases (and also 2 game series) is probably the best angle if you want to "chase".

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

As far as Supersytems - use it any which way you want - I posted the PDF and links to the website for the revisions that bob bies posted - the reason why I didn't update the spreadsheet for this year is most of the time the plays coincided with the RPI system - so why go through updating them
When most of the plays matched the RPI system - on a side note i was thinking about a chase system that looked at the next 3 days of match ups for each team - then use criteria like RPI, starting pitchers whip, obp for each team, etc. the idea is if a team has better stats than their opponent in the next 3 games for ALL those games you would start a 3 game chase. This will allow you to take advantage of winning streaks - thoughts?


Degen-

I have a lot of thoughts on this because this is exactly how my system works.  I have studied streaks and playing an entire series from every way imaginable.  Using your code, I've been able to incorporate some stats into my system that I wasn't using before.  It is working pretty well so far.  I have some interesting data on series games that might be useful to everyone.  Let me see if I can get it all in some presentable form over the weekend and post a spreadsheet and then we can bounce some ideas off each other.

As far as the super systems go, I don't really use them or that spreadsheet.  I don't believe in the theory behind most of those systems.  I fixed the sheet for 2013 because I thought it would be useful for people on here and I was in the midst of doing a bunch of coding for this season anyway.  At the time I thought I was going to be posting more often...I still want to try and do that, but at the very least I want to contribute a bit more to the work you guys are doing.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by grecycle99:

Hi Leprechaun and degengamble.

I'm don't post much on here but you guys are doing a great job.

Leprechaun will you put your automated spreadsheet for your own system, I used to follow you 2-3 years ago and it was great.

I'm trying to use the super systems spreadsheet. The first time I used it today, I've update the data and after the schedule. But I have some #value on 3 of the systems and wondered if it's normal. System #3, 5 and 6 and only have plays on the #7 wich is st-louis, boston and arizona.  Is this normal?

Thanks for you answer and hard work




Recycle-

Good to see you on here...I remember you from a couple years back.  Looks like Buckeye answered your question.  I'm still running my series system...although I've tweaked things quite a bit.  It's going VERY well so far this season, although that's probably because I'm not posting it  I just don't have time at the moment.  My automated sheets are nowhere near ready for general use (i.e. not user friendly).  I've been optimizing the code and incorporating some of Degen's code and the underdog system to improve my system.  Maybe I'll post plays and the sheet the second half of the season if I have enough free time to get it ready.

As far as what's going on in this forum at the moment, what Degen and DanRules are doing is fantastic.  It's a lot of work that has been paying great dividends and those guys deserve all the credit for their hard work.  Follow that underdog thread...it's one of the best that has been on here in awhile.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by luckywayne001:

Degen &  Leprechaun,

Thanks for what you do with the spreadsheets.  This is great work.  Do either one of you do work for websites.  I have something I think either of you might be interested in or even pay you. 

 



Lucky-

Just wanted to say what I did here was minimal...Degen deserves 100% of the credit for these spreadsheets.  I only made a few tiny fixes that almost anyone with a little programming knowledge could have done.

I don't have much interest in building a website...I've done several and it always ends up being 10 times the work it seems like from the beginning. Also, I have a fair amount of side projects that keep my plate very full at the moment.  Degen's reference above is a good one.  If you really want to pay somebody, there are an unlimited number of programmers that do contract work around the internet.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Problem is fixed...use the same link above. I cleared out a few other unnoticeable bugs including the nag screen when you save.  The first time you use this you have to update the data before you update the schedule.  Note that the plays may have been off the last couple days.  If you have any other issues, just post them here and I'll fix them.  Hope this week goes well for all!!

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Buckeye-

I see what the problem is.  The code for creating the standings page is not quite optimized.  I just saw this post as I'm heading out of the house for a few hours, but I will clean this up for good tonight and post a new spreadsheet.

Leprechaun
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
MLB Super Systems 2013 Spreadsheet

Hi guys.  Your friendly neighborhood Leprechaun here.  I had to take last year off for family reasons but I still spend plenty of time in the forums.  Love the work you did here last year Degen.  I'm also quite handy with excel and VBA and I automate my systems much like you have here.  I haven't decided if I'll post regularly yet this year, but I'm here in this forum pretty much everyday and hopefully at the very least I can help out with spreadsheets and system ideas.

I've fixed the standings bug (and another bug on the sagarin rating page) and updated Degens spreadsheet for 2013.  It should be working exactly as it did last year.  Here's the link for you guys:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0Yh1Uhbf7eHRW5wSXZ5V3JZTlU/edit?usp=sharing

I'll be working on more stuff in the coming weeks.  Anybody who remembers me on here knows I'm a numbers man, but they also know I don't start any MLB systems until May while I gather data and let the teams settle in for the season.  Hopefully I can get my system going again and actually make it successful.  Good luck to all.

Leprechaun
Leprechaun
Leprechaun

Thursday, Sept 1 MLB Series System Picks

1. Mil RL (+105) to win 1.5 units


***Results from August 31***

1. Mil (-130) to win 1.5 units.........................lose 1.95 units
2. Tor (-120) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
3a. SF (-175) to win 0.5 units.....................win 0.5 units
3b. SF RL (+125) risk 0.75 units..................win 0.94 units
4. Atl (-150) to win 1.4 units......................win 1.4 units

Total for Aug. 31: 3-1, +1.89 units

Overall SU System Record: 148-137, +1.89 units


***Notes***

Last week, Baltimore swept at Minnesota for the first time since 1993.  This week, Milwaukee loses two in a row at home for the first time this entire season.  So nice to be on the losing end of those beauties.  Today will be the last day for this system, which ended up being a big bust in the end.  It was a good journey and I enjoyed a lot of it.  I'll be back over the weekend to post the final numbers.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

Leprechaun
Leprechaun

Wednesday, August 31 MLB Series System Picks

1. Mil (-130) to win 1.5 units
2. Tor (-120) to win 1 unit
3a. SF (-175) to win 0.5 units
3b. SF RL (+125) risk 0.75 units
4. Atl (-150) to win 1.4 units


***Results from August 30***

1a. Det (-175) to win 0.5 units...................win 0.5 units
1b. Det RL (+120) risk 0.75 units.................lose 0.75 units
2. Atl RL (+115) risk 0.5 units....................lose 0.5 units
3. Fla (+105) risk 0.75 units......................win 0.79 units
4. Mil (-150) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.5 units
5. SF (-145) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.45 units

Total for Aug. 30: 1-4, -2.91 units

Overall SU System Record: 145-136, +0.32 units


***Notes***

Going through the motions for another day or two.  Just a note to remind myself to go back and add up what Baltimore and the Cubs have cost this system over the past 3 weeks.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

Leprechaun
Leprechaun

Tuesday, August 30 MLB Series System Picks

1a. Det (-175) to win 0.5 units
1b. Det RL (+120) risk 0.75 units
2. Atl RL (+115) risk 0.5 units
3. Fla (+105) risk 0.75 units
4. Mil (-150) to win 1 unit
5. SF (-145) to win 1 unit


***Results from August 29***

1. Det (-170) to win 0.75 units.......................lose 1.28 units
2. Fla (+110) risk 0.5 units (gm 1).................lose 0.5 units
3. Ari (-150) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
4. Fla (+105) risk 0.5 units (gm 2)..................lose 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 29: 1-3, -1.28 units

Overall SU System Record: 144-132, +3.23 units


***Notes***

Still going the wrong way but not giving up.  Can we stay in the black for the season?  We're at the crossroads of comedy and tragedy.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

Leprechaun
Leprechaun

Monday, August 29 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det (-170) to win 0.75 units
2. Fla (+110) risk 0.5 units (gm 1)
3. Ari (-150) to win 1 unit
4. Conditional play: Fla (+105) risk 0.5 units (ONLY if Fla lose gm1)


***Results from August 26***

1. Yanks (-165) to win 1 unit...................lose 1.65 units
2. Bos (-150) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.5 units
3. CHW (-130) to win 1.5 units...................win 1.5 units
4. Atl (-145) to win 1 unit..........................lose 1.45 units
5. Phi RL (-105) to win 0.5 units..................lose 0.5 units
6. Cin (-145) to win 0.75 units........................win 0.75 units
7. Dodgers (-130) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
8. Mil RL (+115) risk 0.5 units.......................win 0.58 units

Total for Aug. 26: 4-4, -1.77 units

Overall SU System Record: 143-128, +4.51 units


***Notes***

I didn't get back on time on Sunday to post anything.  Friday was another losing day and we ended down a devastating -11.87 units for the week.  We didn't have one positive day last week of the 4 days plays were posted.  August is a minefield and we went about 25 days without stepping on one.  I guess that's not too bad big picture, but because the system started off so slowly, no matter what happens this week, this year was an absolute failure for this system.  The most we'll end up is probably about 10 units and even that will be a stretch.  We'll play one more week and then shut things down.  Hoping to go out on a good note.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

Leprechaun
Leprechaun

Friday, August 26 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks (-165) to win 1 unit
2. Bos (-150) to win 1 unit
3. CHW (-130) to win 1.5 units
4. Atl (-145) to win 1 unit
5. Phi RL (-105) to win 0.5 units
6. Cin (-145) to win 0.75 units
7. Dodgers (-130) to win 0.5 units
8. Mil RL (+115) risk 0.5 units


***Results from August 24***

1. Min (-125) to win 1.3 units.....................lose 1.63 units
2. Yanks RL (-130) to win 0.75 units.............lose 0.98 units
3. Tor RL (+105) to win 1.2 units................lose 1.2 units
4. Cards (-145) to win 0.75 units.................lose 1.09 units

Total for Aug. 24: 0-4, -4.9 units

Overall SU System Record: 139-124, +6.28 units


***Notes***

That's basically it for any hope of this system doing well.  Got burned for 10 units in just 3 days.  Losing 5 units on the Minny series seems reasonable really.  I think that was the first series since the first week of the system that we didn't get at least one win.  It happened at a time when we couldn't get a win to offset the problem in any other series.  The betting strategy goes in groups...that's what's kept us doing well in bad times.  If an entire group of series tanks at the same time, this is the result.  We'll continue through next week and that will be it.  FYI...I'm going on a camping trip for the weekend so there will not be any plays posted on Saturday.  Should be back early Sunday.  This is a tough end to what had really been a nice run since that first disasterous week.  From the first week of June until last week we had picked up 35 units, with just 3 losing weeks.  I saw the writing on the wall for this week, and had the discipline to stay small...but we need to identify when to skip series all together.  Today I'm playing it straight still...partly because of lack of time to manually filter anything, and partly because the strength in these series.  Back on Sunday with a few more thoughts.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

Leprechaun
Leprechaun


Got roughed up pretty bad this week so far.  1-8 the last two days.  Tight on time today...totals and analysis coming tomorrow.

There are no plays for Thursday.  No doubt the Yanks and Twins will both win big today


Leprechaun
Leprechaun
Leprechaun

Wednesday, August 24 MLB Series System Picks

1. Min (-125) to win 1.3 units
2. Yanks RL (-130) to win 0.75 units
3. Tor RL (+105) to win 1.2 units
4. Cards (-145) to win 0.75 units


***Results from August 23***

1. Yanks RL (+100) to win 0.75 units.....................lose 0.75 units
2a. Tor (-185) to win 0.5 units.........................lose 0.93 units
2b. Tor (+115) risk 0.5 units..........................lose 0.5 units
3. Min (-140) to win 1.5 units.....................lose 2.1 units
4. Cin (-140) to win 1 unit.........................win 1 unit
5. Cards (+110) risk 0.5 units......................lose 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 23: 1-4, -3.78 units

Overall SU System Record: 139-124, +11.18 units


***Notes***

Hated the plays yesterday...stated outright that dogs were hitting, but still followed the system and got crushed.  That's the hard part about systems...they can go against your instincts sometimes...but usually it pays off in the long run.  Looking back, not sure I'd change anything.  System was pretty strong on Minnesota winning one of the first two games in the series.  I didn't think risking 2 units was too much, but with everything else missing, it really hurt us.  That series has cost us 3.5 of the 5 units we are down this week.  Gotta come back at it today, but ending the week in the black will be tough now.  Playing the system straight today again...another tough one with the Yanks and Tor RLs.  Committed to those series now, even though we'll be taking a loss on both.  Let's get a winning day and turn the week around.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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