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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Another tough break with my under going over in an OT game.
Wish I had more time for a write up but I am tired as hell. Hopefully I will be able to add my insight and reasons for my picks later tomorrow. But I have a few picks locked in. 6-4 in thread 0-1 yesterday Picks: Hou/phi under 203 Orl/lac over 198.5 Cha/ind under 185.5 Mem/dal under 187 Pistons -1 Feeling confident in today's card. BOL to all
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Ugh. Tough loss on the DAL/SAC Under. Total went 202 in regulation but sailed over when they were afforded 5 more minutes to score in OT. Oh well. Confident in my capping abilities and confident that I made the correct cap yesterday, adjusting nicely after an incorrect cap the day before.
REMEMBER this important rule not only when gambling, but also in life. I use this strategy for poker and I have had much success online and brick&mortar playing holdem. Do not become results oriented. Let us use poker as a great analogy here. Let's say your opponent puts you all in and you are sitting with QQ preflop and make the call. He turns over AK. Well you made the right call, you are ahead and very +EV. Just because your opponent flops an A and you end up losing that particular time DOES NOT MEAN YOU MADE THE WRONG PLAY. In fact just like poker, sports gambling is a marathon. When you make that call enough times in the long run you become a heavy +EV favorite to win money. To relate back to sports gambling, we make the correct caps and predictions many times but there is definitely a luck factor involved. The game was heading for a solid under the entire game but a late thrust by the Mavs sent the game into OT and over the total. Oh well. If these two teams played again in a similar scenario, I would make the same play and expect +EV in the long run. DAL/SAC Under Blazers +8/Pacers -0.5 Teaser 1-1 last night 6-3 in thread Still had a good day though as my 4 unit teaser hit. Would have been nice to hit both. On to the next one. Spurs @ Grizzlies: Pick Under 188 Here is exactly what we were talking about yesterday. A potent offense meets a very respected D. The trend here has to go to the under, especially lately. But what about historically? We have all heard the adage, "defense wins championships"... Is it true? One thing I can tell you is defense never slumps! Not unless the effort isn't there. So do we have motivation? Absolutely. The Grizz should be highly motivated to beat perennial powerhouse San Antonio. Popp should have his players in a defensive mindset as well. He is good enough to know when to adjust. His players came off a (suprisingly) close game against the Lakers as it came closer down to the wire than many thought. Both teams had yesterday off. Fresh legs. They can run if they want to....but will they want to? This game will be about defense. Whoever plays better D will win the game ->> their coaches know this and should be instructing their teams to have a similar mindset. Both of these teams have been under monsters the past week and a half. I expect the trend to continue as defense will be the focus for both coaches. I will be following the thread in this discussion and might release another pick. Perhaps another multi-unit parlay since that was successful yesterday. BOL to all
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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FWIW,
Laying a few units on a teaser I feel confident in. 5u to win 4.1. Play: Teaser Blazers +8 and Pacers -0.5 Many good thoughts shared in this thread in these two games. Even though a let down situation might occur for the Pacers... The Knicks are just outmanned and defense doesn't slump. Pacers play excellent D. Blazers are a strong play getting this many points which looks like a Heat trap by the books. Like Mavin said these games vs the Heat are like superbowls for opposing teams. Watch Lillard shine in the limelight tonight. BOL
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7: i think one thing that is always somewhat hard to gage in your mind at certain times, is when an uptempo team plays a very defensive team. For instance when uptempo teams play (indiana, memphis, chicago)....which way is the game going to go?>??....uptempo or defensive??...If you really watch the scores of Chicago, Memphis and Indiana...it fluctuates a lot when they play uptempo teams, which way it is going to go.... Very good point. These are tough situations to gauge and perhaps should be 'no bets' until one has enough notes to put a gauge on that situation for a particular period of time
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Raptors Mavs @ Clipps Under ... Dropped the ball on this game. I really thought these teams would be interested in running the ball but that was not the case. Mavs were very content with running their half court through Dirk.... who honestly just doesn't have the lift on his shot that we are used to seeing. Collison seemed to be able to get to the basket when he wanted, but he needs to want that more. We learn a lesson, take notes, and move on. 1-1 yesterday Small card today. Playing just one game. DAL @ SAC: Pick: Under 206 I am not exactly sure why this line is so high. I expected it to be right at 200. Mavs on the second end of a back to back and I expect them to tire out sometime in the third quarter. As previously said Mavs are very content on running the ball slowly through Dirk on the offensive end. Until we see that change or the books lowering their totals, we must take advantage. Sacramento hasn't seen a total this high in their last 10 games. I do not understand why playing the Mavs (who clearly can control the pace of the game albeit in a losing effort) would have an inflated line vs the Kings. Maybe the books are looking at season totals which are as follows: Kings score 96.5 per game and give up 102.1 on defense Mavs score 98.4 per game and give up 103.0 on defense. That provides us with a sense of range for the total. Anywhere from 195 - 205. Yet the game is at 206. PLUS the recent trend is certainly to play the Mavs under. Look at their last 10 games. Mavs have score 100 three of these ten games but two came with OT. Yes, they have given up 100+ 6 times but these have come to some really good offensive units including MIA, OKC, SAx2, DEN. Sac town has had their troubles this season but I have a feeling they take down the Mavs after their collapse vs the Clippers. Mavs will have tired legs in the second half. Their second unit is terrible and relies on old Vince Carter to spark them offensive. Second end of back to back really hurts these old guys. Also a little look ahead factor for the Mavs, they have MIA next. Also leaning playing Kings ATS. BOL to all. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Ok boys. Good day all around it seems like in this thread. Way to get back on track Mavin!
Pacers/Heat Under Nets/76ers Over 4-1 in thread 2-0 yesterday Two plays going today. One locked in last night. 76ers @ Raptors: Pick Raptors -4 First I want to say that I watched the full game last night of Nets/76ers and the 76ers just looked pathetic, especially in the second half. Jrue Holliday was the only 76er that could score consistently last night and the rest of the players just did not look good. Evan Turner is a good shooter but needs to assert himself much more. 76ers continue their long, horrid road trip (yes they played at home last night but are going back on the road)... I saw one play last night where a 76er player (forget who) just gave up on a play. Ball obviously when off him and slowly went out of bounds, he gave no effort to win the ball back. I expect the 76ers to come into Canada being quite dispirited and I expect the Raptors to hand them a loss. Second game in two days for the 76ers, I expect them to come out flat (or if they come out with lots of energy, I expect them to lose that energy and cool off in second half) Mavericks @ Clippers: Pick Over 201 Here is one where both teams got yesterday off. Well rested. Dallas lost a tough one to Utah at a very tough place to play. Clippers are coming off two decisive wins, scoring 100+ in each vs two very suspect Ds. While the Mavs may want to run lots of half court through Dirk, I expect the intensity of this game to be very high. CP3 and lob city will get their. The key here to me is a young Darren Collison. I see him comparing himself to CP3 and wanting to show off his speed in this game. I expect him to push it and get his. Dirk struggled a little vs a lengthy Jazz squad shooting only 7-14 but still reaching 20 points. I expect him to drop 30. Hopefully OJ Mayo has a good game because that indeed might just be the deciding factor. If the Mavs can keep this close, I see it going way over. Even if the Clips blow out the Mavs I could see this creeping over the 201 mark. BOL to all. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Rudy G.ay lol
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Curious as to if people remember to take into account that Dudley is being rumored in trade talks with Memphis' Rudy happy. Has to get a player fired up when trade rumors swirl..
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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who is "they" aka source please
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jmac80 | 16 |
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GL staying away from this game. I really think it is difficult to tell how a team will react to their coach being fired. Sometimes it makes the players go harder (whether it be to impress their new leader or to show they didn't need that old guy).
BOL
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cashaholic | 37 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Nets @ 76ers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Sorry should ready Heat/Pacers UNDER 187
Picks: Nets @ 76ers Over 187 Heat @ Pacers Under 187
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Mavs/Jazz Under
2-1 in thread 1-0 yesterday Tough day for NBA bettors yesterday as many favs not only failed to cover the spread, but lost outright. REMEMBER especially on a day like today that we need not chase our losses. After all, plenty of us are still playing with house money, right? Don't chase and try and recoup all your losses on one play. Stick with the slow, steady grind that we all know handicapping is. Two picks for y'all today. Nets @ 76ers: Pick Over 187 Nets travel to Philly to take on the 76ers who are home after a GRUELING road trip. The Nets have played great the past few games after the firing of Avery Johnson. All of a sudden they are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 100+ in their last three games and four in their last five (they failed to reach 80 in San Antonio). While Brooklyn only averages giving up 94 points a game on the season, they have relaxed a bit defensively since ridding themselves of Avery and have given up 100 in three of their last five. After playing their last two games at OKC and at SA, the 76ers should experience more success on the offensive side. Plus they finally get to play at home after a long road trip. Jrue struggled in their last couple games. I expect him especially to get things going. 76ers were embarrassed last two games with blowouts. I expect them to come out with a fire under their behind playing at home. Heat @ Pacers: Pick Over 187 Ok so this one is based a lot on the Pacers season and the Heat recent trend. Heat had struggled for a couple games then got back on track vs a lowly Wizards team. While they probably would have still won in a fun n gun format vs the Wiz kids, they ramped up their D and won it on that end of the ball. IF the Heat think they have a chance at beating the Pacers in Indiana, then they MUST play great defense. I expect both of these teams to be focused on the defensive side for this game, exerting much more energy stopping the other team from scoring. Indiana happens to be the best at doing this over the course of the season. I expect Indiana to be pumped up to win this game. Their coach must inform them they will need to win this game on the defensive side to win this game. Same thing for the Heat. Hopefully this game avoids OT as I see it as a close one. BOL to all |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Missed Suns last Friday
1-1 in thread 0-0 yesterday Todays pick: Mavs @ Jazz: Pick Under 198 Mavericks come into Utah after dropping two consecutive games in OT. Mavs obviously have their half court threat back, Dirk, and it shows. They have been able to compete with MIA.... but still seem to fall short. Clearly Dirk isn't 100% but that shot is pure. Utah has a lengthy defensive unit which may force Dirk to alter his shot and if that one legged fadeaway isn't dropping all night, I think this game falls short of 198 total points. Dallas has only scored 100 four times in their last 10. Not terrible but let's take a look at those games. First is MIA... good defense when they are trying, however this game did go into OT. Still lots of points. The other being Washington who despite their terrible record, actually don't play AWFUL defense. Certainly not the worst in the league. Another game went over due to OT vs OKC (again, good when they give max effort) and Philly who was quite injured back when these two teams met. I don't see the Mavs cracking 100. I do see them steadily feeding Dirk and slowing it down in the half court instead of Collison making things happen at a break neck speed. Utah has only cracked 100 twice in their last 10. They play well at home. I think with the crowd they will ramp up the defensive pressure and force Dallas into taking forced shots. Making this a 2 unit play. Leggo under 198. BOL to all.
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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MIN/DEN U
1-0 in thread, 1-0 last night. Tonight's play for me is short and sweet. Simple and to the point. Phoenix gets it done in the desert tonight. Personally I am laying a few units on this play (one of my bigger plays of the year) but to stick with the theme of this thread, I wouldn't advise laying too much on one play. First off, the home team has fared very well in this series over the past couple seasons. Home team has won the last 3 meetings and 5 of the last 6. Phoenix is enjoying a small home stand after being on the road for 3 consecutive games. Phoenix has only won 1 of their last 7, but it was at home, at it was the last game they played. They missed Goran Dragic when he was out a couple games and he seems to be back in the swing of things. Utah just blew out Minnesota and are probably feeling good about themselves. This coincides with them going on the road where they are 6-13 overall. Also they travel to Denver to play in a tough one tomorrow while Phoenix gets a day off and gets to rest at home against the Grizz. I really think this line should mirror the line against the 76ers (more like a 3-5 point spread). I see value in this play. Now, its hammer time. I bought 1 point just to be sure. Suns -0.5 BOL TO ALL
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by kapostsss: Good luck for all today. It's hard to choose just from 2 games, but gives us a chance to slow down and did not force anything. Maybe take the day off... Yesterday won 4 units on 13 bets. Way to much for one day, but I'm learning to limit myself . In process... So good mood today and happy about only 2 games on radar But 5 plays anyway, just 1 unit ... NYK/SAS under 208 NYK will be Felton less and they offence will continue to struggle. Also they play slow pace offence with a lot dribiling pikNroll around 3p line our trying to pass Melo in post. Same bad games for them on defensive end and loses. Will try to play thair best D after same talk on locker room. SAS 4 game on 5 nights and POP may rest his stars. They should be tired end play little slower pace in favor for NYK. NYK ML DEN/MIN OVER half 101.5 and all game 201.5 Both teams play fast pace up tempo game. DEN ran at home in full speed and TWolfs will ran with them. After last night loss MIN will bounce back and will play solid game. Lawson should be out, but no mater for this game. Just need normal shooting % couse there will be a lot attempts. Also need to make FT'S 70+ % TWolfs +8 Feel good about my plays Learning to limit yourself.... There are 2 NBA games today yet you have 4 plays... Just an observation. BOL Rubio is out once again FYI
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Going to stay away from Denver -8. Lots of public money on them after getting lots of airtime once they beat the Clippers' streak.
Really think that Miller controlling the tempo will make this game stay under. TWolves have cracked 100 points only 1 in their last 7 games-- their only game over 100 in that span was against he Suns in Minnesota. Now they have to play on the road, against a good Denver squad, and a tough altitude. Playing the Under 201.5. 1 unit play. BOL to all. Happy New Year. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by Kohler: Mavin, Forgive me for I have sinned. I am one of the silent majority who has been quietly following this thread and tailed some of your NBA picks. I have really learned a lot and have been pretty good at keeping the bets small and not chasing. I started this fall with an $1100 bankroll and had recently gotten it up to $2020 through my own plays on NFL, College FBall,esp. Bowl Games and your help in NBA. Last night I STUUUUUUPIDLY lost $700 on the online casino portion of my sportsbook. Now I basically have to start over but I am so tempted to get it all back in one or two bets this week to get "even". Any thoughts out there from all how I can recover from this dumb mistake? I have also been part of the silent crowd trying to see if Mavin and this thread would just be another one of those flash in the pan type experiences. Here one day with some plays, gone another when things aren't going so well. Kohler -- think of your hard work to cap those games... Bankroll management has probably helped you to climb your roll to where it is now. Don't lose sight because you expect to be winning more than you currently are. Take a breath. Fingers off the keyboard. Small card tonight. Remember there will always be games to bet on tomorrow. And a much larger card to choose from. My advice >>> Don't chase!!! Slow and steady wins this race, sir. I have been on a nice little heater the past couple weeks. I have been scanning this thread for useful information to help cap the games for the day. I have noticed a sweet little trend in the short run --- when my picks coincide with yours, Mavin, we have been on a solid 4-0 run the past couple days. Hitting the Warriors and the Suns last night. Mavs and Rockets previous days. This makes me want to contemplate increasing the units of the plays that we "agree" on. Anyhow.... I hope to add some of my personal insight form my research and the games I watch so that we can all continue to pound the books right where it hurts. Small card today. Nothing really jumping out at me. SA @ NY: Spurs have been great but coming off a B2B where the Knicks play really well. What concern's me on the Knicks side is Amar'e. I just didn't get a really good sense of his contribution last game and kind of that it boggled down their game last time out. I think Spurs are the better team but the situation really favors the Knicks. Things are heating up in NY as they have lost 4 of their last 7 and recently let the Blazers come in to their home floor and beat them. They are 12-3 at home and have always won the next game after losing one at MSG. SA @ NY: No Play MIN @ DEN: Denver should be able to handle Love and the Wolves but will they experience a let down after beating the clips? The line is a bit high for me but the Nuggets dominate at home. They have covered the spread their last 5 home games and have covered at home in all but 2 games this season. Minnesota is coming off a B2B where they were crushed by the Jazz. Andre Miller is a much slower paced guard than Ty Lawson. Shall we take a look at the O/U as a possible play? The most recent news I have on him is: "Ty Lawson was diagnosed with a strained left Achilles on Wednesday and he is a game-time decision for Thursday. An MRI revealed nothing out of the ordinary and this is good news for Lawson. He might need to rest for a game or two, but it's not an injury that should result in extended trip on the inactive list. Andre Miller will continue to start in his absence and should put up very strong numbers if Lawson is going to miss more games. Andre Iguodala and Corey Brewer also get a boost with Lawson out of the lineup. Jan 2 - 10:57 PM" MIN @ DEN: Leaning Denver -8, Under 201.5 |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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First post of the season, in class right now and I don't feel like typing an explanation, sorry.
Cowboys -7 Under 47 Basically I think the Eagles are a joke who looked like a great team because they played on of the worst. The Boys are a super bowl caliber team. |
Legend00 | 2 |
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First posted plays of the year.
Phillies -114... 1 unit Red Sox -107... 2 units Good luck to all. |
Legend00 | 2 |
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