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Finish with a bang!.... its been fun and now I turn my attention to baseball and then NCAAF season
Play #1 = -11.5 UCONN $165 -115 (+$135+) Play #2 - 5 pt teaser $100 > UCONN -6.5 with UNDER 166.5 with Purdue -4.5 (+$110)
Final Results for Tourney Record ATS/Totals: 9 - 3 (+$470) Exotics : 4 - 11 (- $210) |
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Record Up to Final 4:
Record ATS/Total: 8 - 3 (+$335) Exotics : 3 - 11 (- $320)
Basically, my exotic plays are shit!! Haha So......... I do not see Alabama having any chance in the UCONN game given the fact they must score inside vs a very disciplined defense/heady athletic team and they have not fared well vs teams like that this season
Play #1 = -11.5 UCONN $165 -115
Play #2 - 5 pt teaser $100 > UCONN -6.5 with UNDER 166.5 with Purdue -4.5 -Edey plays a hi-bred man to man/zone and Horne will not be able to slash to the hoop for easy buckets -the big guy for NCST or Diawara will have trouble doing up and unders around EDEY as well and kick out more where Purdue will take their chances playing good perimeter defense like they can on 3pt shots (86th in the nation vs 3pt shooters for defense)
Lose these bets....will be out $250 on the tourney (up +$15 right now)
Will watch final and would prefer to play in game rather than pre-bet........bet TOTAL or SIDE as game progresses |
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I can't touch these lines......very rich spreads but, might be perfect actually. I am looking at totals and might have a play Saturday. |
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5 DAY TOTAL TREND (start of season)
- yesterday was back on OVER trend big time.... - day 4 was EVEN OVERALL NOW: OVERS = 42 - 21 - 5 = 66.7%
Have begun charting extreme good and bad starter results for pitching.....and follow up 3 day and 5 day trend -let's see if there is something interesting comes out of it -NCAAB Tourney paid off for me with a 9 - 3 ATS/Total record and laying bigger bets (my experience is, analytics pays off)
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Reflecting back on System Potential each month to Dec 1:
March = 6 out 17 cards were reachable ($1128 in prize cash) = spend $700 - $900 Feb = 3 out of 17 were reachable with system ($223 in prize cash) = spent likely $800-1000 Jan = 4 out 15 were reachable ($541 in prize cash) = spent likely $700 = 900
Being selective in April.....but come May 1st, I think the warmer weather will help with consistency |
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Quote Originally Posted by Seymourbukz:
Cheers and good luck this season Thanks Seymour, U2 |
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Happy to have baseball back as the NCAAB and NBA seasons unwind.....
My focus on picks revolve around analytics. Until I get a handle on trends, pitcher and team hitting rhythms, I will only post a play sporadically, but I am more than willing to share my observations to help you. Compiling analytics are enjoyable for me and govern my angles, but every once in a while, I will do a hunch bet.
While I compile my analytics. I am diving into last season and the season before based on 2 things to look for: -Streak patterns > effect on totals and how they end -strong pitchers with low eras when facing weak teams or low totals I feel I can find a pattern in one of these angles that could provide a nice situation during this season from time to time.
BETTING: - for baseball, I only allocate $2500 and find a TRIPLE UP approach works well - standard Unit = $50 (I use -115 as average juice when calculating profit) - Triple Up sequence > Half U ($25) on play #1 > lose declare Play #2 or $50, declare Play #3 for $100
SEASON PATTERN SO FAR: - 3 day pattern of totals is a bit of a surprise: OVERS = 26 - 11 - 2
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No picks today....just like the UNDER Duke but don't love it. Like Purdue ML ....but only two games so I am going to parlay those two not together but with some various other plays in soccer, hockey, baseball or NBA.
GL today |
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Taking a break for a while while the weather and track gets a little more consistent. Racing was closed this week and started back up last night. I watched.
I have decided to be selective on cards that have some variety of new horses and situations for the PICK5. There were plenty of instances of horses this winter receiving low odds pre-race for no reason at all and their form was awful before, and then come race time they were up to 8-1 to 15-1 and they win easily in what I call a shady race with unusual fractions by the better horses. I know its part of racing, but in the past few months, they have done this a couple nights per week in 2 races often, in the P5 and results are not necessarily reflecting the unusual horses. P5's payouts should be much higher with the risk one might take an spend on but they are not. BARN RACES or predetermined races seem to be happening....with more frequency this year? |
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PLAYS OF THE DAY: (last results)
CLEMSON ML +145 - $70
BIG PLAY: UNDER CLEMSON-BAMA 164.5 - $200 ....really TOUGH second half...no way was this heading over but thats sports for ya
Record Up to 3rd Round: Record ATS/Total: 8 - 3 (+$335) Exotics : 3 - 8 (- $245) .... have 3 open Teasers to claw some back (finish on Tuesday with NIT games)
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UCONN UNDER 155 vs Illinois $100 -110
....will update ATS/Totals record later after 165 UNDER ALABAMA
IF you watched this UCONN game....Illinois tried to be chippy and trashed talk....big mistake! It was boys to men after that and UCONN ran plays that Illinois had no idea what was going on....in other words, its scary to see UCONN's gear 3 if they show it and I only think Purdue has the smoothness, passing and plays to maybe hang with them
I have watched UCONN 4x this year and saw their 3rd gear in one game and the game was close for 3 Q's..... but they went on a whole new level tonight for about 15 minutes |
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Just found something..... UCONN UNDER 155 vs Illinois $100 -110 -have a look at when UCONN plays a strong team with a threatening offense....they shut the game down and keep it under 155 always.....except one game back on Dec 5 vs UNC
This is a pure analytics and pattern bet |
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Clemson has played 7 high octane or shoot quickly and 3pt offenses...teams that like to push the ball up the floor:
Alabama > won on road > total 166 Memphis > lost by 2 on the road > 156 UNC > lost at home by 10 > 120 UNC > won on the road > 156 NCST > lost at home by 1 > 155 -------------------------------------------- NCAAB TOURNEY run and gun teams: NMex > won by 21 > 130's Baylor > won by 8 > 130's Arizona > won by 2 > 149
I see the line is coming down....
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PLAYS OF THE DAY: CLEMSON ML +145 - $70 - they already beat Bama 85-77 in their building!! They have beat a lot of excellent teams on the road and seem comfortable on the road -Bama with a sense of relief to get to the final 8 -it's taken a lot out of them so their adrenaline and effort is draining -Clemson NEVER looks tired and rarely breakdown defensively -Clemson beat UNC on the road EASILY and Bama now has to beat the team they they barely beat and is organized and in control better than most teams with their sets and backdoor cuts/timely shots...they work the clock for a proper open shot....no machismo in their game but UNC fell into that trap of playing street ball with BAMA.....Clemson won't and already beat them
TWO GOOD PLAYERS ARE HURT FOR BAMA and Pringle cannot play at full speed and leaping around the hoop likely.....I know that you do not bounce back from a strain in your ankles or achilles in 2 days...played pro v-ball myself indoor and outdoor and your ankles are EVERYTHING on a court where leaping matters ....move forward to pivot up puts huge strain on ankles and yes tape helps but to jump with speed and freedom....not so much
BIG PLAY: UNDER CLEMSON-BAMA 164.5 - $200 ......adding $100-150 m\ more if it climbs before gametime - total between them in Bama where the home team can score 100 for fans was 159 .....now Bama is tired, wonky for some players and Clemson is not |
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-$180 so far on exotic bets yesterday....BUT...I have 3x $25 @+110 that are hanging fruit to clawback some of that money on Tuesday
QUESTION OF THE DAY: WHY IS ALABAMA FAVOURITE AND THE TOTAL 164.5?????........ go through Clemson's schedule carefully like a good capper and you will ask yourself the same question
Coming back with some plays.... |
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Fun Plays > parlays and teasers for me today
Play #1/2 > $25 > 5 pt teasers/3 way paying +110 > KEYS: Duke +9.5 with GEORGIA +8.5 (NIT): a. NC State +12 b. Gonzaga +10.5 c. Indiana St Under 169.5 (NIT) D. Creighton +8.5 (NIT)
Main 5 pt teaser (3 way @+110) = $100 > Houston win with Houston UNDER 139.5 with Georgia +8.5 - Jeremy Roach is an effective player for Duke and is Questionable
Parlays: Marquette 1.33 with Purdue 1.42 x $50 Marquette 1.33 with Duke +4.5 (1.7) x $30
FACTS about Duke-Houston Matchup: -Houston is a terrible FT team so I can see Duke deploying this strategy if down in the 4th Q....I hope its a tight game so they do not have to do this until the last couple of minutes -Houston had to go to OT @Baylor and win by 6....Baylor does not have a good defense -Duke beat Baylor by 8 in non-conf matchup so I am expecting this game to be tight -also expect Duke will deploy their defensive tactics to keep this tight and then use strategic fouling in the 4th Q DEFENSE STATS: Duke 53 best def. .......Houston #1 Duke 104 vs 3pt perimeter defense.....Houston #17 Duke 43 in defense rebounding....Houston #37
Houston will have to contend with defensively... 2x as good Free Throw stats for Duke -23rd best FG team in Duke -13th best 3pt team in Duke......however, realize that Houston's competition this year was much tougher than Dukes when we look at SOS but....ACC teams are showing up to be good on both sides of the ball and Houston might feel pressured to convert and match Duke at times and the free throw line might let them down but will contribute to a total + Dukes shooting.....to easily and most likely be over 130 but not likely over 140?
I am having a hard time picking a pure side or total today...... .......if I lose all my exotic plays, I will be marginally up for the tourney but that will force me to fish for one play for $300 - $500 the rest of the way, or maybe a couple |
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My Bet Plan: TRIPLE UP ($100-200-400 if necessary) Play 1 - 5pt TEASER $100 > Clemson +12.5 with UNDER UCONN 141 with UNC win
Play 2 - if lose play 1 > standard $200 next play > UNDER IOWA St-Illinois 146
Record Up to 3rd Round: Record ATS/Total: 7 - 2 (+$445) Exotics : 3 - 3 (+$30) |
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SMOOTH UNC....wow |
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What happened to defense in the SDST -UCONN game? |
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My Bet Plan: TRIPLE UP ($100-200-400 if necessary)
Play 1 - 5pt TEASER $100 > Clemson +12.5 with UNDER UCONN 141 with UNC win
Play 2 - if lose play 1 > standard $200 next play > UNDER IOWA St-Illinois 146 -even if I win my teaser, keeping this play at $200 because I love it so much!
I have a plan for Friday.....if I need Play 3 to finish TRIPLE UP....and playing my plays regardless |
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