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Kababayan
Kababayan
Thank you 
Kababayan
Kababayan
Hey everyone,
I'm sorry about this amateur question but it has been years since I made a deposit with bookmaker.eu. I finally need to redeposit. The last time I did (8 years ago) I sent P2P because credit card wasn't accepted from the U.S. and there was this "veil of secrecy" when sending money overseas to sportsbooks. I see now that BKMR accepts CCs from the U.S. Has the rules laxed recently about sending money to sportsbooks? Has anyone from the U.S. deposited to BKMR via credit card recently or is the best way still P2P? I'm sorry about the basic question and it may seem like I've never done this before, but I just haven't needed to deposit in a long time (I guess that's a good thing.) 

I haven't contacted BKMR directly because I'm sure they would just give me advice that would best benefit them. They probably don't care how I get them the money. When I first deposited it was all about being secretive. I was told not to use bank deposits or CCs or anything that linked directly to me. Has that changed? It has been a while and I'm sure things have changed. 
Thank you in advance.
Kababayan
Kababayan
Thanks Samrock.  I was just on Oddsportal.  After 5 min of backtesting, my theory was destroyed.  I guess it was better that it was destroyed in the first 5 min then to spend hours only to find it destroyed on my last couple of teams of backtesting.  Thanks again.
Kababayan
Kababayan
Thanks BuckeyeKaptn
Kababayan
Kababayan
Does anyone know where I can find the results for all mlb games played on a particular day?  Vegasinsider used to have it by day, but I can't seem to find it anywhere now.  They have it for the current season (which only includes one game so far) but I am hoping to find the daily results for previous seasons. I am looking to backtest something.  Any help is greatly appreciated.  Thanks in advanced.
TheBeefMan
TheBeefMan
Beefman, I sent you a friend request for your twitter handle.  Thanks.
Bart_
Bart_
Thanks again Cisco and Bart
Allison_Road
Allison_Road
Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:


I believe Dan did a couple of weeks back, he said only last season there were no losses.


Thanks Ghost
Allison_Road
Allison_Road
Was this ever backtested?  I don't mind backtesting a couple of years, but I didn't want to repeat the work if it has already been done.  Thanks.
Bart_
Bart_
Thank you for this.
Kababayan
Kababayan
A big thank you to Ordinaryday6 for giving me the formula to type into killersports. It saved me a lot of much time. Thanks again to Dragonbets for steering me to killersports. Below is the info that I found.  To me, the sweet spot seems to be -8 to -10. The winning percentage is higher with the -11+ range, but the cost is so much more and make it more difficult to chase.  I began parlaying high money teams, but when they did lose, it made it too high of a cost to chase the loss.  Parlaying two teams in the -8 to -10 range means a bet of 1.50 to 1 to 2.75 to 1, depending on what your book has as the moneyline for those ranges. I am going by memory with those numbers, and can give some exact numbers when I research them more.  Also, I'll give you my exact parlay record for this season when I have the time to go back and calculate.  Below is the SU winning percentage based on the spread:

2014-15 CBB ML record:
89-47 (4.04, 65.4%) -6
114-44 (6.61, 72.2%) -6.5
99-26 (7.94, 79.2%) -7
106-35 (7.26, 75.2%) -7.5
97-23 (7.71, 80.8%) -8
83-20 (8.94, 80.6%) -8.5
83-19 (8.27, 81.4%) -9
97-15 (9.87, 86.6%) -9.5
82-14 (9.80, 85.4%) -10
78-16 (9.84, 83.0%) -10.5
65-12 (8.86, 84.4%) -11
54-7 (14.34, 88.5%) -11.5
45-4 (13.55, 91.8%) -12
54-11 (11.82, 83.1%) -12.5
61-7 (10.71, 89.7%) -13
42-3 (13.96, 93.3%) -13.5
53-2 (12.71, 96.4%) -14
39-1 (15.95, 97.5%) -14.5

2013
188-54 (6.96, 77.7%) -8
174-45 (8.91, 79.5%) -8.5
173-32 (9.14, 84.4%) -9
199-25 (10.49, 88.8%) -9.5
152-27 (10.06, 84.9%) -10
148-31 (9.72, 82.7%) -10.5

2012
282-87 (6.81, 76.4%) -8
275-62 (8.30, 81.6%) -8.5
255-46 (9.16, 84.7%) -9
263-39 (9.89, 87.1%) -9.5
219-45 (9.83, 83.0%) -10
224-46 (10.28, 83.0%) -10.5

Kababayan
Kababayan
As I reread my post I did make it seem as though it was mostly cbb, but it was actually a mix of whatever I could find with high money lines (soccer, cricket, boxing, cbb.)  I started just wagering on any high ML but soon realized that it wasn't the most efficient, as high ML teams will still lose (especially soccer and boxing). My worst wager was to bet 65 units to win 15 and it lost.  I saw that I was winning 3 out of 4 parlays, but that 1 loss took out all of the winnings, so I set some parameters for myself. 1) I only wager to win one unit. That way I am putting equal importance on every parlay. 2) I bet two-team parlays, with an occasional three team. No more 7 team -3500 ML parlays. 3) I only wager 2.5 max to win 1 unit. That way I don't have to put up too many units to chase a win. 4) My goal is to win 1 unit a day. 5) I am only wagering to win .25% of my bankroll. That way I don't stress while chasing. I don't always follow my own rules, as I just lost a 4 unit parlay. 
Kababayan
Kababayan
Thank you both for your help. I greatly appreciate it.  I'll post my findings.  My goal is to find that "sweet spot" of a high winning % with not too high of juice.  I began parlaying -1100+ favs but the occasional losses became to much to chase, so I am focusing on the -450 to -550 range. I try to only lay 2.5-1 unit to win ratio.  That way it is low enough for me to comfortably chase.  I am up close to 100 units in three months, but I am wagering a very small amount per unit size.  Thanks again.
Kababayan
Kababayan
Does anyone know where I can find winning percentages based on point spreads? Meaning how often -2 favs or -4 favs, -6 favs, etc, win?  The reason that I ask is because I have been doing very well this college basketball season playing two-team ML parlays using favs.  I began pairing up -12 favs or higher but the juice was so high that I began looking for -9 to -10 favs only.  I chase the parlays until I win, which hasn't gone past a C game. I am wondering, though, if I am playing too high of favorites.  I hope that I am explaining it clearly.  Any idea where I can find that type of info?  I would like to find the info for all sports, but CBB would be a great start.  Thanks in advance.
coolspot
coolspot
Looking forward to seeing the results. Good luck.
Kababayan
Kababayan
Thanks Bart
Kababayan
Kababayan
Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:


You got a link to the filters?
Tbh I'm not too confident in Bd's systems, almost every system he has takes at least 1 or 2 5-6 games losses. As you can see on his new site.


I didn't know he had a new site. I don't know if you are allowed to post links here, but any suggestions on how to find it? Thank you.
Kababayan
Kababayan
Thanks again guys. I'm going to look at each team and see what the data tells me. I'm always going into backtesting with a preconceived idea in mind, only to find out that it doesn't work. This time I'll go into it without any pattern that I'm looking for and see what the numbers show.  I'll share if I find any decent patterns. 
Kababayan
Kababayan
Quote Originally Posted by staf:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&sdql=season+and+ou+streak&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++


Staf,
Thank you very much for running this, although I'm having a little difficulty understanding it a bit.  If I'm reading it right, during the 2013 season there were teams who went o/u 11, 12, 13, and 14 times?  If that's the case, this attempt at a system is shot.  Again, if I'm reading it correctly, there is at least one loss every year.  It doesn't seem worth the risk to me.  Please correct me if I'm understanding the numbers incorrectly.  Thanks again for the help. 
Kababayan
Kababayan
If you are not into chase systems, please disregard this post. I've been trying to back-test a simple scenario, but am having trouble finding the time to back-test completely.  Would a couple of you mind helping me out with 2010-2012?  It's for MLB. It has one loss so far in 2013. Even with a loss, I anticipate +50 units on the year. There is a possibility of redistributing the losses, if you have a good redistribution system.

After a team goes over or under 5 times in a row, chase the opposite for 6 games. The hope is that a team won't go over or under 11 times in a row.  One loss would be around 84 units.

2014: 131-0
2013 1 loss so far.  51-0 through 1/3 of the teams.  (I'll finish this year)
2012: ? (Would someone take this year and post results?)
2011: ? (Would someone take this year and post results?)
2010: ? (Would someone take this year and post results?)
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