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I watched the LSU/Alabama game and thought that Alabama was the more TALENTED team but the scoreboard showed at the end who was the BETTER team that day. Championship teams aren’t always about talent-it’s more about finding a way to win crucial games. Last year I thought Alabama “outplayed” Auburn, but Auburn found a way to win an important game and went on to win the BCS championship game. Did Auburn go into that game and think ,like Alabama obviously did this year, “We don’t really need to win this game because we're the best team and we’ll get another shot?!?” Overall talent doesn’t always win championships. Were the Longhorns really the most talented team in 2005 or was it Vince Young who beat USC? Was Auburn really better than Oregon and Alabama or was it Cam Newton that just got it done? Either way those teams had tests during their seasons and they came away with wins. Good or bad the way the “system” is set up you don’t usually get a 2nd chance…ask Boise, OK St, Stanford…and even Houston…..Unless you happen to be a handpicked National champion…look at how most of the quoted experts rated Alabama at the beginning of the season. My problem isn’t with the talent of Alabama; it’s with their lack of character..They didn’t win when they needed it and just assumed that they would have the unprecedented privilege of a 2nd chance. That to me is not championship material. I could argue that OK St won when it needed to and has much more of a championship team character. I would be OK with a rematch if it happened as a result of a real playoff system but not when it's decided by a popularity poll. Bottom line the BEST team (National Champions) find ways to win and they don’t make excuses for a big loss. I think LSU will find a way to win this game. Alabama(and a lot of commentators) will still say at the end of the game that they are the best team in college football. |
lsufasteddie | 447 |
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Everyone has the right to trash talk if they want…that’s what these posts are for… I would like a NCAA champ to actually play its way to a championship. I never signed up for the current BCS system..It’s not really any better than the previous election system for deciding the National Champ. It’s still pro wrestling/Roman gladiators ….give the fans a game to watch to make them think a team deserved to be called #1. Are LSU and Alabama the best? Maybe…probably..I don’t really know because my opinion means nothing. I remember all the smack last year about how Oregon wouldn’t even be in the game with Auburn..and how Oregon would be a 5 or 6 game winner in the SEC. The predicted “blowout “ended up 22-19. That was almost the same score as TCU over Wisconsin. (Wisconsin was supposed to win by 30 according to all the posts). Last year in the bowls (which they had to play not talk about)the SEC didn’t dominate: They won some but had some humiliating losses: NCAR 30-TENN 27(ACC) CENFL 10-GA 6(CUSA)!!! FSU 26-SOCAR 17(ACC) ARK 26- OHIOST 31(Big10) PITT 27 –KENTY 10(BigEast) FLAvs(Big10),ALAvs(Big10),MISSt vs(Big10),LSU vs(Big12) all won convincingly Of course AUB vs(PAC10) won by 3 pts. Looks 50/50 to me…but the SEC was 3/1 against the BIG10! You can say whatever you want..I just want to see more games played and hear less “if (name the team) had to play in the SEC they wouldn’t even be Bowl eligible…” |
Ice4Blood | 401 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Horny John:
I find your continuous call for logic and reasoning in selecting Oklahoma State laughable. Here is simple logic: No Team has ever lost to a 6 loss team in the regular season and played for a national championship. Oklahoma State lost to a 6 loss team in the regular season. Therefore Oklahoma State cant play for a national championship. Thats how logic works That kind of logic is called sophistry "a method of argumentation that seems clever but is actually flawed or dishonest" The flaw is the assumption that because something has never happened means that it can't happen. It is simply a meaningless stat You could also say that no 2 teams from the same conference have ever played for a national championship, therefore LSU and Alabama can't play for a national championship. Obviously not true. I just don't want to see that game again. |
Ice4Blood | 92 |
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Computer rankings that use questionable data and unverified "proprietary" algorythms combined with opinon polls from people that don't even watch the games=the BCS "system" The conferences don't want a playoff...but there seems to be a surge in support for changing the system.. An "expert" committee seems to work for the NCAAMs tournament.. as long as all the teams know what criteria is being used, we could have some kind of true championship.. The pressure for change is there. The conferences just have to see that a truly competetive Nat'l title is what CFB needs. |
Ice4Blood | 92 |
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Even a 4 team playoff would be better than what we have now..at least more teams would have a shot of proving it on the field… The "every game in the regular season is a playoff," mentality is pretty idiotic, but every championship team faces some “must win” games… Winning a conference doesn’t automatically qualify a team for the Championship game but it does work as a kind of playoff. The LSU/Bama game was a “must win”. In the NFL the 2 best teams may be in the same conference but only one of them is going to go to the Superbowl. Alabama had to win that game..they had the advantage, they were playing at home and went to OT….but they failed to get it done when they needed it. …just because a team belongs to the SEC doesn’t mean they deserve a title shot. I get tired of SEC cockiness and arrogance. Immediately after playing LSU the Alabama players were still claiming to be the best team in the country and that they WOULD play in the BCS championship…that doesn’t seem like a championship team to me. A championship team wins when it has to…it doesn’t get a 2nd chance. Let’s give Boise another chance…let’s give Stanford another chance…let’s give Houston another chance… Oh wait!!! Those teams didn’t win the game they really needed and failed to get a conference championship. Houston wasn’t really eliminated because they weren’t going to be considered, but you could argue that Boise and Stanford had a shot if they went undefeated and won their conferences. OSU did lose to a team they should have annihilated but it didn’t really matter . They came back and won their conference..OSU played every team in their conference and had one bad game. They won when they needed it and they won convincingly. I would prefer to see teams play rather than win a popularity contest, but really…which team came through when it counted and which team felt that it wasn’t important to prove it on the field? |
Ice4Blood | 92 |
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SEC overrated? ….Definitely by the SEC fans! Just because a team belongs to the SEC doesn’t mean they could compete in the NFL! I’m not a fan of the SEC but the LSU/Bama game impressed me..it did feel like I was watching two pro teams..the athleticism, the defensive and offensive game plans, the coaching….(OK with the exception of some idiotic FG attempts!). You could probably say that about any competitive low scoring game in the NCAA but still, that game was in another league from most CFB games. Also you have to be impressed by the SEC’s BCS championship record. BUT…just because a team belongs to the SEC doesn’t mean they deserve a title shot. I get tired of SEC cockiness and arrogance. Immediately after playing LSU the Alabama players were still claiming to be the best team in the country and that they WOULD play in the BCS championship…that doesn’t seem like a championship team to me. A championship team wins when it has to…it doesn’t get a 2nd chance. Let’s give Boise another chance…let’s give Stanford another chance…let’s give Houston another chance… Oh wait!!! Those teams didn’t win the game they really needed and failed to get a conference championship. Houston wasn’t really eliminated because they weren’t going to be considered, but you could argue that Boise and Stanford had a shot if they went undefeated and won their conferences. Winning a conference doesn’t automatically qualify a team for the Championship game but it does work as a kind of playoff. There are “must win” games and the LSU/Bama game was a “must win”. In the NFL the 2 best teams may be in the same conference but only one of them is going to go to the Superbowl. Alabama had to win that game..they had the advantage, they were playing at home and went to OT….but they failed to get it done when they needed it. OSU did lose to a team they should have annihilated but it didn’t really matter . They came back and won their conference..OSU played every team in their conference and had one bad game. They won when they needed it and they won convincingly. I really felt Bama had a better team than LSU this year and a better team than Auburn last year. The Tide didn’t win those games. A champion wins. Alabama is no championship team. The Tide and fans need to accept responsibility for a BIG loss and just don’t let it happen again next year Besides…I agree with a lot of posters…the LSU/Bama rematch wouldn’t settle anything. Why shouldn’t LSU be able to argue that if they lose that they are still really the best team and that besides the record is 1-1…. |
Ice4Blood | 401 |
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Like the picks I'm also liking the OVERS on these games (I know from one of your other threads you don't like O/U plays) What kind of Odds did you get on the money line parlay? My sportsbook has it at +122.($100 pays $222) BOL
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SarahJPhilli | 72 |
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I only played the over but you got a better line than I could get on the Boyz! Maybe you're right about Vick....I noticed Kitna's rushing avg and yds were better than Vick's! BOL |
chungnuoc | 51 |
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Thanks!! I didn't think anyone was reading my post!!
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Franchise2M | 12 |
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Early game picks RESULTS Atlanta -8 I know it's probably the straightest pick I have butCarolina is just too bad at home and Atlanta is too consistent I prefer a smaller line but that's why I'll probaly go 1H ATLANTA -6 as well with the UNDER 42.5 Pittsburg -5.5 1H Should have played full game! I like the way Pittsburg matches up against Cincy and Cincy has been losing on the road. Leaning towards UNDERIt looked too good so I played it!! Cleveland +1 Bad pick but I salvaged it by playing the under I'll risk a little road dog action against Buffalo Still think they're one of the worst teams in the NFL..but maybe Cleveland's worse!! Detroit +7 Detroit can hold their own against GB and I think they can cover a TD..GB has a good record but they only cover about half the time..but they do cover the bigger spreads...might wait for another half point and play the OVER (thankfully I didn't lean too hard and decided not to play it!! NYG/MIN no play but thinking about the OVER I have time to think this over since the roof collapsed and they are playing on Monday. 2 MNF GAMES!!! Oakland +4 Good game,still think it had a chance to cover..I know Jacksonville has a lot to play for but my numbers have Oakland winning straight up and I like getting more than a FG...I'm not really looking at last weeks game with SD... Tampa Bay -2 TB won by 1 pt..... I was looking for OT for a chance to cover....still think it was the pick!! Washington has been having problems and they are off their 2nd straight home loss...TB played well against ATL and has been an ATS machine on the road they just need not throw picks at the end of the game...WAS ain't ATL!! 6-4-0 60%
Thanks for reading my post!!!
BOL in all your picks whatever side you're on |
Franchise2M | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Parlaid:
1 very very small factor may include the Homer scenario...However, I am 8 - 4 on Canes plays...That aside, the play likely would be a few units left...However, I truly believe the Canes are better on both sides of the ball and will come into this game motivated rather than deflated...They lost their coach ( thank you ! ) and should be fired up with interim coach at the reigns ( as most teams seem too ) and a lackluster performance against the IRISH wont help their case to pull in a ''big'' name coaching replacement...I am completely aware that looking at this years results, MIAMI beat no-one and ND beat USC as well played close against MICH.ST and a very talented on offense MICH team...that is where my only worry comes into play... I see these teams being even damn near everywhere across the board...THE DIFFFERENCE MAKER...Leonard Hankerson...The Irish have not faced a wideout like this all year...This game will come down to turnover ratio of Harris/Morris, and how many times Hankerson gets the ball...Irish ranked 42nd in Country when it comes to PASS D and while Hank is the one with big numbers, Canes definitely have a few more than capable recievers....Miami also boasts a great PASS D on their side and while their RUN D is quite suspect to me, the Irish arent too powerful on the ground...Might as well count this as my first wrte-up.. MIAMI convicts 31 NOTRE DAME catholics 20 Interesting ... good points I'm a Miami fan and they scare me.. I agree they are the better team but they've had a hard time coming together this year...Hope your right! BOL |
Parlaid | 35 |
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I moved to Miami from El Paso and it's true the Sun Bowl has been wanting ND for a long time...but they needed to bowl eligible but not so good that they were offered a more prestigious Bowl.. I have no doubt that the Irish will be made to feel right at home and will have a ton of support from the Sun Bowl crowd...I'm a Miami fan but they just don't have their shit together this year..you never know which Miami will show up to a game...I can't bet against my team but I'm sure not going to bet for them this year! |
SatNightFever05 | 32 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dawniewags:
VEGAS has NO idea of the outcome of any Game all they want is = action on both sides or as close to 50- 50 as they can get 52-48 they win money yup they are plus 280 million or 2.8 billion depending on the game ! Exactly!! The losers pay the wiiners and we all get to pay the sports book around 10% for the privilege!!!
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Vuudooo | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
I spin the "Wheel of Misfortune" on Sunday morning. Each game is divided into 4 parts ; favorite, underdog,over,under. Wherever the pointer lands, is where I place my bet. In case of technical difficulties, I'll defer to my 8 yr. old son who likes to play the teams with the cooler names or better uniforms. Hey if it works!!! a friend of mine's 10 yr old son has a knack for liking the losing team..but I always hear his picks after kickoff!!! |
Franchise2M | 12 |
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Early game picks Atlanta -8 I know it's probably the straightest pick I have butCarolina is just too bad at home and Atlanta is too consistent I prefer a smaller line but that's why I'll probaly go 1H ATLANTA -6 as well with the UNDER 42.5 Pittsburg -5.5 1H I like the way Pittsburg matches up against Cincy and Cincy has been losing on the road. Leaning towards UNDER Cleveland +1 I'll risk a little road dog action against Buffalo Detroit +7 Detroit can hold their own against GB and I think they can cover a TD..GB has a good record but they only cover about half the time..but they do cover the bigger spreads...might wait for another half point and play the OVER NYG/MIN no play but thinking about the OVER Oakland +4 I know Jacksonville has a lot to play for but my numbers have Oakland winning straight up and I like getting more than a FG...I'm not really looking at last weeks game with SD... Tampa Bay -2 Washington has been having problems and they are off their 2nd straight home loss...TB played well against ATL and has been an ATS machine on the road they just need not throw picks at the end of the game...WAS ain't ATL!!
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Franchise2M | 12 |
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DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS: This one seems to be the phrase thrown out to make it look like you know what you are talking about…It’s true to a point but you can’t win without an offense that can score…most of the recent SB champs had high powered offenses and just OK defenses..Baltimore is the biggest exception “STUPID” PICKS THAT COVER AND “GOOD “PICKS THAT LOSE In the end we all want to have $$$ in the account and we would all rather be lucky than good but you really can’t rely on luck. The house always has the advantage. This is a game of inches and sometimes things don’t go your way…it doesn’t always mean it’s a bad pick. If the reasons for your picks are sound, then the result will be in your favor more times than not. I’ve won games that I realized it shouldn’t have happened and I got lucky …I don’t want to hope for lightning to strike twice. I want to be able to win again INJURIES/SUBSTITUTIONS Remember in the NFL , the players are all good (just some are better than others!) This isn’t the NCAA where even championship teams win because of one player. (Texas won the BCS championship in 2005…USC was a better team but they couldn’t stop Vince Young…and this year would Auburn be a contender without Cam Newton?) Most positions can be filed in by another player…Even the QB…and sometimes the backup QB does better than the starter…look at the Cowboys…Injuries play a part but I just don’t think a player being out is a good reason to fade a team.. TEAMS PLAY TO WIN NOT TO COVER There are no style points in the NFL…nobody gets voted into the Super Bowl…a win by 1 point is the same as a win by 3 TDs..big lines can be a trap. I keep this in mind when I look at lines. DOGS/FAVS I look for underdogs that are undervalued and have a real chance to win. I don’t take a dog just because I think the line is too high.. With favorites I really don’t like more than a TD…they don’t have the motivation at the end of a game to run up the score..-2.5 is good because it covers the FG lines over 3 are good when the 2 teams are really mismatched but I am still wary of the 7.5plus lines…I don’t care if a play is “sharp” of “straight”…it just has to make sense to me… Sorry this is post is so long. For what it’s worth I liked IND last night for 1H but didn’t play it . This was a fav that I thought would come out strong in the 1st half and the 1H line was good….maybe I read too many posts!!! Played TEN +4 Played the UNDER 45 |
Franchise2M | 12 |
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Here’s what I’ve learned and how I make my picks: STATISTICAL MATCHUPS : I don’t believe you can just look at a team’s yards or points. TRENDS: not a huge believer but I will consider them if they seem valid. I use them more as a way to support my pick. I mainly look at recent ATS trends …especially home/away stats road underdogs etc.. Let’s face it there are a lot of meaningless trends… ”4 and 1 in the last five games in week 14” Like It makes a difference how a team played in 2004!!! POY’S : also not a big fan.. I may put out too many picks for some people but I look at it like a stock portfolio..I play them all equally and spread the risk. As long as I continue around 60% I’ll make money over the course of the season. The rewards are bigger if you hit a big play but they are also riskier. HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: It has its place but I think it is overrated. There are always exceptions (Seattle for one). It works in college to a point but in the NFL the players are professional and are used to traveling and in some cases get out of the cold when they go to play in a domed stadium. The only time I really consider home field is for a home favorite with a big line and I might play the half. This worked great last week with Baltimore and NE. |
Franchise2M | 12 |
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I was introduced to sports betting when I worked at a car dealership filled with degenerate gamblers (unlike the fine upstanding citizens I see posting on Covers). From the general manager down to the lot porters these guys would be up $8000 one week and down $12000 the next. Some guys paid services to get picks. Everyone always had strong opinions. One guy in particular made a lot of money in sales but by the end of the season ended up supporting his sports book. He was great to fade at the end of the season when he was down…the more sure he was of a play the more likely it was going to lose. A lot of them had bookies which was a disaster…no money up front and it was too easy when you won and horrible when you lost. I lived in the border town of El Paso so I would go to my local sportsbook in Juarez MX. I only played what I could afford to lose and I did OK..it was fun and I became more interested in teams and games because I had money on them I always wanted to know why people made their picks and it just didn’t seem to be any fun to just get a service to tell you what to play. I had a system that looks at statistical matchups and tried to find undervalued teams. I wanted to be able to win repeatedly instead of just get lucky. My system usually worked more than 60% but I made the mistake of playing too many parlays. Never really won huge but also never lost huge either. WARNING!!I would love to be able to say that I make a living with this but I do it for entertainment. That’s the same reason I read these posts, but I try not to let it influence my picks… it goes without saying but I’m saying it anyway ….Fade or follow at your own risk |
Franchise2M | 12 |
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Both teams have played like BCS champions. This is one of the few years when I can't really argue that another team was definitely more deserving to play for the title. These 2 teams have convinced me...but I have to say besides any other analysis Auburn's come from behind wins have shown a lot of poise and heart...they seem to have the "X" factor every champion needs. So what are you going to do about your bet? Are you going to hedge your original $1000 with a play on Auburn? Even if you can't get a plus line on Auburn you can a least guarantee some kind of win...or are you just going to let it ride and go for it? |
SarahJPhilli | 305 |
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Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:
Let's face it, TCU almost got beat by perennial powerhouse San Diego State. Let's see....that team is playing Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. But, you're right pal..... schedule and strength of competition mean nothing Wow!! TCU was down for a total of nine minutes in that game.. let's see that leaves 51 minutes and the final score...they also chose not to run up the score in the final minutes when they had the game locked up...that game meant nothing it was a W like all their other games. Auburn was down for more time than they were up against Bama but they won and then dismantled South Carolina in the SEC championship game. Oregon had a scare against "powerhouse" Cal but pulled it off...Good teams find a way to win even a bad game. Yes I am mentioning TCU in the same breath as AUB/ORE! My point is if the Badgers shouldn't underestimate TCU. |
callmetim | 94 |
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